Earnings Miss: Open Lending Corporation Missed EPS By 78% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

Open Lending Corporation (NASDAQ:LPRO) just released its latest third-quarter report and things are not looking great. Open Lending delivered a grave earnings miss, with both revenues (US$23m) and statutory earnings per share (US$0.01) falling badly short of analyst expectations. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Open Lending after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Open Lending

After the latest results, the ten analysts covering Open Lending are now predicting revenues of US$123.5m in 2025. If met, this would reflect a substantial 29% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to shoot up 470% to US$0.22. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$134.4m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.26 in 2025. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a substantial drop in earnings per share numbers.

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of US$7.25, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Open Lending's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Open Lending, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$10.00 and the most bearish at US$5.00 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Open Lending's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 22% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 2.1% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 5.7% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Open Lending is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$7.25, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Open Lending going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Even so, be aware that Open Lending is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.