Golub Capital BDC, Inc.

NasdaqGS:GBDC Stock Report

Market Cap: US$4.1b

Golub Capital BDC Valuation

Is GBDC undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of GBDC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: GBDC ($15.25) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($17.58)

Significantly Below Fair Value: GBDC is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for GBDC?

Key metric: As GBDC is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for GBDC. This is calculated by dividing GBDC's market cap by their current earnings.
What is GBDC's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio14.7x
EarningsUS$273.79m
Market CapUS$4.06b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does GBDC's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

Insufficient data to calculate this valuation analysis check
The above table shows the PE ratio for GBDC vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Averagen/a
GBDC Golub Capital BDC
14.7x19.4%US$4.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: Insufficient data to calculate GBDC's Price-To-Earnings Ratio vs. peers for valuation analysis.

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does GBDC's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Capital Markets Industry?

22 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
ADX Adams Diversified Equity Fund
3.7xn/aUS$2.31b
CET Central Securities
4.4xn/aUS$1.31b
GAM General American Investors Company
4.2xn/aUS$1.20b
MUDS Mudrick Capital Acquisition Corporation II
3.4xn/aUS$401.64m
GBDC 14.7xIndustry Avg. 23.8xNo. of Companies72PE020406080100+
22 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: GBDC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.7x) compared to the US Capital Markets industry average (23.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is GBDC's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

GBDC PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio14.7x
Fair PE Ratio17.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: GBDC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst GBDC forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$15.25
US$16.25
+6.6%
4.6%US$17.00US$15.00n/a4
Dec ’25US$15.67
US$16.25
+3.7%
4.6%US$17.00US$15.00n/a4
Nov ’25US$15.08
US$16.25
+7.8%
4.6%US$17.00US$15.00n/a4
Oct ’25US$14.89
US$16.25
+9.1%
4.6%US$17.00US$15.00n/a4
Sep ’25US$14.89
US$16.25
+9.1%
4.6%US$17.00US$15.00n/a4
Aug ’25US$15.14
US$16.88
+11.5%
4.9%US$17.50US$15.50n/a4
Jul ’25US$15.62
US$17.25
+10.4%
1.4%US$17.50US$17.00n/a4
Jun ’25US$16.57
US$17.25
+4.1%
1.4%US$17.50US$17.00n/a4
May ’25US$16.98
US$17.00
+0.1%
1.9%US$17.50US$16.50n/a5
Apr ’25US$16.54
US$16.70
+1.0%
4.1%US$17.50US$15.50n/a5
Mar ’25US$15.50
US$16.40
+5.8%
4.9%US$17.50US$15.50n/a5
Feb ’25US$15.23
US$16.10
+5.7%
3.6%US$17.00US$15.50n/a5
Jan ’25US$15.10
US$15.90
+5.3%
4.2%US$17.00US$15.00n/a5
Dec ’24US$14.93
US$15.90
+6.5%
4.2%US$17.00US$15.00US$15.675
Nov ’24US$14.55
US$15.70
+7.9%
3.2%US$16.50US$15.00US$15.085
Oct ’24US$14.67
US$15.70
+7.0%
3.2%US$16.50US$15.00US$14.895
Sep ’24US$14.44
US$15.70
+8.7%
3.2%US$16.50US$15.00US$14.895
Aug ’24US$13.94
US$14.38
+3.1%
6.7%US$15.50US$13.00US$15.144
Jul ’24US$13.50
US$14.25
+5.6%
5.8%US$15.00US$13.00US$15.624
Jun ’24US$13.09
US$14.25
+8.9%
5.8%US$15.00US$13.00US$16.574
May ’24US$13.45
US$14.31
+6.4%
8.7%US$15.50US$12.25US$16.984
Apr ’24US$13.56
US$14.81
+9.2%
3.2%US$15.50US$14.25US$16.544
Mar ’24US$13.99
US$14.81
+5.9%
3.2%US$15.50US$14.25US$15.504
Feb ’24US$13.96
US$14.75
+5.7%
1.7%US$15.00US$14.50US$15.234
Jan ’24US$13.16
US$14.75
+12.1%
1.7%US$15.00US$14.50US$15.104
Dec ’23US$13.94
US$14.75
+5.8%
1.7%US$15.00US$14.50US$14.934

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/27 23:55
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/27 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2024/09/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Golub Capital BDC, Inc. is covered by 12 analysts. 4 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Derek HewettBofA Global Research
Christopher TestaB. Riley Wealth
David ChiaveriniCantor Fitzgerald & Co.