CME Group Valuation

Is CME undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of CME when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: CME ($239.38) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($211.58)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CME is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CME?

Key metric: As CME is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for CME. This is calculated by dividing CME's market cap by their current earnings.
What is CME's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio25.2x
EarningsUS$3.42b
Market CapUS$86.26b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does CME's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for CME vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average42.6x
ICE Intercontinental Exchange
36.9x11.4%US$89.5b
MCO Moody's
44.8x9.3%US$89.7b
MSCI MSCI
40.1x9.5%US$48.4b
NDAQ Nasdaq
48.6x17.6%US$46.6b
CME CME Group
25.2x3.1%US$86.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: CME is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.2x) compared to the peer average (42.6x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does CME's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Capital Markets Industry?

23 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
ADX Adams Diversified Equity Fund
3.7xn/aUS$2.32b
CET Central Securities
4.6xn/aUS$1.34b
GAM General American Investors Company
4.3xn/aUS$1.21b
MUDS Mudrick Capital Acquisition Corporation II
3.4xn/aUS$401.64m
CME 25.2xIndustry Avg. 24.4xNo. of Companies73PE020406080100+
23 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: CME is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.2x) compared to the US Capital Markets industry average (24.4x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is CME's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

CME PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio25.2x
Fair PE Ratio19.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: CME is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.7x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst CME forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$239.38
US$236.56
-1.2%
8.8%US$275.00US$181.00n/a16
Dec ’25US$238.00
US$236.00
-0.8%
9.0%US$275.00US$181.00n/a16
Nov ’25US$223.61
US$235.31
+5.2%
9.3%US$275.00US$181.00n/a16
Oct ’25US$225.28
US$218.00
-3.2%
8.9%US$250.00US$177.00n/a16
Sep ’25US$215.74
US$218.50
+1.3%
8.0%US$250.00US$191.00n/a14
Aug ’25US$196.31
US$218.00
+11.0%
8.3%US$250.00US$191.00n/a14
Jul ’25US$195.50
US$223.80
+14.5%
9.5%US$250.00US$187.00n/a15
Jun ’25US$202.98
US$225.93
+11.3%
8.1%US$250.00US$187.00n/a15
May ’25US$208.07
US$226.27
+8.7%
8.0%US$250.00US$187.00n/a15
Apr ’25US$212.02
US$225.60
+6.4%
8.9%US$250.00US$185.00n/a15
Mar ’25US$219.21
US$225.67
+2.9%
8.8%US$250.00US$185.00n/a15
Feb ’25US$205.79
US$221.87
+7.8%
9.5%US$250.00US$180.00n/a15
Jan ’25US$210.60
US$228.01
+8.3%
8.4%US$250.00US$180.00n/a15
Dec ’24US$219.54
US$227.53
+3.6%
8.5%US$250.00US$180.00US$238.0015
Nov ’24US$210.92
US$227.40
+7.8%
8.5%US$250.00US$180.00US$223.6115
Oct ’24US$200.22
US$213.25
+6.5%
8.6%US$250.00US$173.00US$225.2814
Sep ’24US$202.89
US$210.50
+3.8%
10.4%US$250.00US$167.00US$215.7414
Aug ’24US$199.83
US$213.44
+6.8%
10.8%US$254.00US$167.00US$196.3116
Jul ’24US$185.29
US$206.47
+11.4%
11.0%US$250.00US$160.00US$195.5015
Jun ’24US$180.02
US$205.43
+14.1%
11.5%US$250.00US$160.00US$202.9814
May ’24US$186.63
US$205.86
+10.3%
11.4%US$250.00US$160.00US$208.0714
Apr ’24US$191.52
US$205.75
+7.4%
11.0%US$250.00US$160.00US$212.0216
Mar ’24US$184.23
US$205.00
+11.3%
11.3%US$250.00US$160.00US$219.2116
Feb ’24US$175.54
US$201.47
+14.8%
11.7%US$250.00US$159.00US$205.7916
Jan ’24US$168.16
US$207.55
+23.4%
10.8%US$250.00US$161.00US$210.6017
Dec ’23US$177.90
US$209.35
+17.7%
11.9%US$270.00US$161.00US$219.5417

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.


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