Melco International Development Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of MDEV.F when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

MDEV.F ($0.61) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] ($5.27)

Is MDEV.F undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MDEV.F when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MDEV.F ($0.61) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($5.27)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MDEV.F is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MDEV.F?

Key metric: As MDEV.F is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for MDEV.F. This is calculated by dividing MDEV.F's market cap by their current revenue.
What is MDEV.F's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio	0.2x
Sales	HK$34.26b
Market Cap	HK$6.87b

MDEV.F key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	2.1x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	9.3x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does MDEV.F's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for MDEV.F vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PS	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	2x
ACEL Accel Entertainment	0.8x	2.8%	US$958.5m
BALY Bally's	0.3x	2.2%	US$721.0m
NGMS NeoGames	5.2x	19.0%	US$998.2m
EVRI Everi Holdings	1.5x	4.2%	US$1.2b
MDEV.F Melco International Development	0.2x	7.1%	US$6.9b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: MDEV.F is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.2x) compared to the peer average (2x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does MDEV.F's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Hospitality Industry?

30 Companies	Price / Sales	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Industry Avg.	1.6x	9.9%
MDEV.F Melco International Development	0.2x	7.1%	US$882.86m
BLMN Bloomin' Brands	0.3x	-2.7%	US$1.12b
BALY Bally's	0.3x	2.2%	US$721.02m

30 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Industry Avg.	1.6x	26.1%
MDEV.F Melco International Development	0.2x	102.0%	US$882.86m

No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: MDEV.F is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.2x) compared to the US Hospitality industry average (1.6x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MDEV.F's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MDEV.F PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio	0.2x
Fair PS Ratio	n/a

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate MDEV.F's Price-To-Sales Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MDEV.F forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	n/a	US$0.76 0%	15.6%	US$0.98	US$0.58	n/a	8
Nov ’25	US$0.65	US$0.76 +17.9%	18.0%	US$0.98	US$0.52	n/a	7
Oct ’25	US$0.69	US$0.77 +11.3%	22.9%	US$1.07	US$0.45	n/a	7
Sep ’25	US$0.53	US$0.80 +50.8%	25.3%	US$1.06	US$0.45	n/a	7
Aug ’25	US$0.63	US$0.91 +45.5%	17.2%	US$1.06	US$0.64	n/a	7
Jul ’25	US$0.70	US$0.92 +31.2%	17.5%	US$1.08	US$0.64	n/a	7
Jun ’25	n/a	US$0.91 0%	17.4%	US$1.07	US$0.64	n/a	7
May ’25	US$0.79	US$0.89 +12.3%	20.9%	US$1.07	US$0.58	n/a	6
Apr ’25	US$0.65	US$0.89 +37.3%	15.7%	US$1.06	US$0.70	n/a	6
Mar ’25	n/a	US$0.89 0%	15.7%	US$1.06	US$0.70	n/a	6
Feb ’25	US$0.71	US$0.99 +38.7%	16.9%	US$1.27	US$0.70	n/a	6
Jan ’25	US$0.72	US$1.01 +41.0%	14.7%	US$1.27	US$0.79	n/a	6
Dec ’24	US$0.69	US$1.21 +76.1%	23.9%	US$1.74	US$0.79	n/a	6
Nov ’24	n/a	US$1.34 0%	21.0%	US$1.74	US$0.89	US$0.65	5
Oct ’24	US$0.82	US$1.42 +74.1%	16.5%	US$1.74	US$1.06	US$0.69	5
Sep ’24	US$0.92	US$1.54 +66.6%	9.6%	US$1.73	US$1.26	US$0.53	6
Aug ’24	US$1.11	US$1.53 +38.5%	8.9%	US$1.69	US$1.26	US$0.63	6
Jul ’24	US$0.95	US$1.59 +67.8%	12.4%	US$1.91	US$1.26	US$0.70	6
Jun ’24	US$0.88	US$1.53 +73.2%	13.7%	US$1.92	US$1.26	n/a	7
May ’24	US$1.16	US$1.51 +29.8%	13.3%	US$1.91	US$1.26	US$0.79	7
Apr ’24	US$1.18	US$1.51 +28.1%	16.7%	US$1.91	US$1.10	US$0.65	7
Mar ’24	US$1.33	US$1.50 +12.5%	15.9%	US$1.91	US$1.10	n/a	8
Feb ’24	US$1.34	US$1.43 +6.8%	21.2%	US$1.92	US$0.93	US$0.71	8
Jan ’24	US$1.10	US$1.12 +1.4%	24.9%	US$1.45	US$0.67	US$0.72	8
Dec ’23	US$0.84	US$1.07 +27.7%	24.1%	US$1.45	US$0.67	US$0.69	8
Nov ’23	US$0.54	US$1.06 +95.8%	24.0%	US$1.44	US$0.66	n/a	8

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.