Luckin Coffee Inc.

OTCPK:LKNC.Y Stock Report

Market Cap: US$10.8b

Luckin Coffee Future Growth

Future criteria checks 5/6

Luckin Coffee is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 22.4% and 13.2% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 21.6% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 23.6% in 3 years.

Key information

22.4%

Earnings growth rate

21.56%

EPS growth rate

Hospitality earnings growth18.0%
Revenue growth rate13.2%
Future return on equity23.57%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated06 May 2026

Recent future growth updates

No updates

Recent updates

Narrative Update • May 10

LKNC.Y: Roasting Network Expansion And Share Repurchases Will Support Future Upside

Analysts have nudged their fair value estimate for Luckin Coffee to $45.98 from $45.54, attributing the change to updated assumptions for the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E levels. What's in the News Luckin Coffee announced a share repurchase program of up to US$300 million of Class A shares in the form of American Depository Shares, funded with existing cash, with a planned duration of 12 months.
Narrative Update • Apr 24

LKNC.Y: Smart Roasting Network And Origin Flagship Expansion Will Support Upside

Analysts have made a modest adjustment to their $45.54 price target on Luckin Coffee, reflecting slightly updated views on discount rate, revenue growth assumptions, profit margins and future P/E multiples, while keeping their overall fair value estimate effectively unchanged. What's in the News Luckin Coffee began operating an advanced smart roasting center in Qingdao, Shandong Province, with a total investment of about RMB 3,000 million and annual roasting capacity of over 55,000 tons.
Narrative Update • Apr 10

LKNC.Y: Origin Flagship Expansion And Green Retail Concept Will Support Upside

Analysts have maintained their $45.54 price target for Luckin Coffee, noting that updated model inputs, including a slightly higher discount rate and a revised future P/E assumption, offset one another in their valuation analysis. What's in the News Luckin Coffee opened its 30,000th store in Shenzhen, described as its first Origin Flagship location with a focus on Global Origins and a larger brand evolution theme (Key Developments).
Narrative Update • Mar 26

LKNC.Y: Origin Flagship And Green Retail Concept Will Support Future Upside

Analysts have modestly raised their $45.54 price target for Luckin Coffee, reflecting slightly revised assumptions for the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E. Together, these changes indicate a fine-tuning of their view rather than a major reset.
Narrative Update • Mar 10

LKNC.Y: Origin Flagship And Green Retail Expansion Will Drive Future Upside

Analysts have reduced their fair value estimate for Luckin Coffee to about $45.54 from around $48.76 as they incorporate more cautious assumptions on revenue growth, profit margins and the future P/E multiple. What's in the News Luckin Coffee marked the opening of its 30,000th store, the first Origin Flagship in Shenzhen, highlighting its large-scale retail footprint across more than 300 cities in China and overseas markets including Singapore, Malaysia and the United States.
Narrative Update • Feb 24

LKNC.Y: Origin Flagship And Green Retail Expansion Will Support Future Upside

Analysts have nudged their price target on Luckin Coffee slightly higher to $48.76 from $48.60, reflecting updated assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins, discount rate, and future P/E. What's in the News Luckin Coffee opened its 30,000th store, its first Origin Flagship, in Shenzhen, tying the launch to a Global Origins theme and highlighting a shift toward greater focus on professionalism, quality, and sustainable development.
Narrative Update • Feb 09

LKNC.Y: Overweight Rating And Origin Flagship Expansion Will Support Future Upside

Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for Luckin Coffee to about US$48.60 from roughly US$50.10, reflecting slightly adjusted assumptions on discount rate, revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E, even as fresh Street research highlights renewed interest in the stock within China's "bubble & brew" sector and cites a US$55 price target on new coverage. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts highlight the new US$55 price target as support for the view that Luckin Coffee still has upside potential relative to the revised fair value estimate of about US$48.60, pointing to room for the share price to converge toward their assumptions on earnings and P/E.
Narrative Update • Jan 25

LKNC.Y: Bubble And Brew Leadership And Overweight Rating Will Support Future Upside

Analysts have nudged their price target for Luckin Coffee slightly higher to about US$50.10 from about US$49.83, citing recent positive Street research, including a new Overweight initiation, as support for the updated view. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research, including a fresh Overweight initiation and US$55 price target from JPMorgan, adds more color around how the market is thinking about Luckin Coffee at current levels.
Narrative Update • Jan 11

LKNC.Y: Bubble And Brew Leadership And Margin Strength Will Support Future Upside

Analysts have nudged their fair value estimate for Luckin Coffee slightly higher to about US$49.83 per share from roughly US$49.63, citing recent positive Street research, including a new US$55 target and Overweight initiation that support modestly stronger profit margin and P/E assumptions. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research, including a new Overweight initiation and US$55 price target from JPMorgan, gives more color on how analysts are thinking about Luckin Coffee's risk and reward profile.
Narrative Update • Dec 14

LKNC.Y: Store Expansion And Digital Platform Will Drive Future Market Leadership

Analysts have nudged their price target for Luckin Coffee slightly lower to $49.63 from about $49.95, reflecting modestly softer long term growth and margin assumptions, even as they continue to highlight the company as a preferred name within China's "bubble and brew" sector. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts highlight Luckin Coffee's positioning as a top pick within China's rapidly expanding "bubble and brew" category, supporting a premium valuation relative to slower growing domestic peers.
Narrative Update • Nov 30

LKNC.Y: Market Leadership Will Support Store Expansion Across China

The analyst consensus price target for Luckin Coffee has risen from $48.24 to $49.95, as analysts cite strong store growth and continued profitability in a rapidly expanding Chinese coffee market. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts highlight Luckin Coffee's consistent outperformance within China's rapidly growing coffee sector, noting that it is now the largest coffee chain in the country by store count.
Narrative Update • Nov 16

LKNC.Y: Market Leadership Will Drive Store Expansion Momentum In China

Analysts have revised their fair value estimate for Luckin Coffee upward from $46.89 to $48.24. They cite strong growth prospects and continued optimism for China's expanding coffee market.
Narrative Update • Sep 06

Chinese Urbanization And Digital Transformation Will Unlock Market Potential

The consensus analyst price target for Luckin Coffee has increased modestly as a sharp decline in its future P/E ratio offset a slight reduction in revenue growth forecasts, lifting the fair value estimate from $45.61 to $46.89. What's in the News Luckin Coffee (LKNCY), now China's largest coffee chain, has opened its first store in New York City less than 200 feet from a Starbucks location, signaling its entry into the U.S. market (WSJ).
Narrative Update • Aug 07

Chinese Urbanization And Digital Transformation Will Unlock Market Potential

Luckin Coffee’s future P/E ratio has dropped sharply from 21.27x to 2.96x while its net profit margin remains stable at 9.4%, leading to the consensus analyst price target holding steady at $45.61. Valuation Changes Summary of Valuation Changes for Luckin Coffee The Consensus Analyst Price Target remained effectively unchanged, at $45.61.
User avatar
New Narrative • Dec 03

Aggressive Store Expansion And Light Milk Tea Innovations Will Drive Revenue Growth And Profitability

Aggressive store expansion and new product lines are boosting market share, diversifying offerings, and enhancing customer engagement, driving revenue growth.

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

OTCPK:LKNC.Y - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (CNY Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/202875,8946,7236,0748,3727
12/31/202767,5345,4183,8327,14710
12/31/202659,7564,3573,4175,70910
3/31/202652,4183,5833,3625,985N/A
12/31/202549,2883,6003,4676,091N/A
9/30/202546,1253,9314,7367,155N/A
6/30/202541,0183,9673,9836,402N/A
3/31/202537,0623,5622,9725,390N/A
12/31/202434,4752,9561,8114,229N/A
9/30/202431,9272,401-1,0831,674N/A
6/30/202428,9462,075-1,0891,668N/A
3/31/202426,7452,200-1,1931,563N/A
12/31/202324,9032,8441442,900N/A
9/30/202321,5332,6063,0743,875N/A
6/30/202318,2282,1472,1812,982N/A
3/31/202315,3251,033184985N/A
12/31/202213,293488-78120N/A
9/30/202212,0311,355-216-43N/A
6/30/202210,486803-625-452N/A
3/31/20229,101831291464N/A
12/31/20217,965579-50123N/A
9/30/20216,879-2,665-8166N/A
6/30/20215,671-4,353-1,097-274N/A
3/31/20214,530-5,044-2,446-1,624N/A
12/31/20204,033-5,589-3,199-2,377N/A
9/30/20202,783-4,661-4,065-3,286N/A
6/30/20203,182-3,481-4,751-3,137N/A
3/31/20203,319-3,918-3,940-2,526N/A
12/31/20193,025-3,713N/A-2,167N/A
9/30/20193,395-3,765N/A-1,397N/A
6/30/20192,094-3,718N/A-1,994N/A
3/31/20191,306-3,631N/A-1,815N/A
12/31/2018841-3,190N/A-1,311N/A
12/31/20171-113N/A-190N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: LKNC.Y's forecast earnings growth (22.4% per year) is above the savings rate (3.5%).

Earnings vs Market: LKNC.Y's earnings (22.4% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (16.8% per year).

High Growth Earnings: LKNC.Y's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: LKNC.Y's revenue (13.2% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (11.6% per year).

High Growth Revenue: LKNC.Y's revenue (13.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: LKNC.Y's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (23.6%)

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/05/13 11:59
End of Day Share Price 2026/05/13 00:00
Earnings2026/03/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

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Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Luckin Coffee Inc. is covered by 18 analysts. 10 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Mark YuanBNP Paribas
Boyi ShiCGS International
null nullChina International Capital Corporation Limited