How Surging Digital and Delivery Sales May Shape Yum China’s (YUMC) Growth Path Forward

• Yum China Holdings reported third-quarter 2025 results with revenue rising to US$3.21 billion and adjusted earnings of US$0.76 per share, while opening 536 net new stores and expanding digital and delivery channels.
• Delivery sales accounted for roughly half of total sales and digital orders contributed 95% of total sales, highlighting the company’s continued operational focus on technology-driven growth.
• We’ll examine how Yum China’s rapid expansion in new stores and surging digital sales impact its forward-looking investment narrative.

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Yum China Holdings Investment Narrative Recap

For investors to be comfortable holding Yum China Holdings, belief in China’s long-term consumer growth, successful adaptation to local tastes, and sustained expansion into new cities is essential. The recent third-quarter results, highlighted by healthy revenue growth, robust digital sales, and aggressive store openings, support these growth drivers but do not materially shift the near-term catalyst of digital and delivery platform execution, nor do they ease the margin risk tied to rider and labor cost inflation.

Among recent corporate actions, the continuing share buyback, including US$326 million repurchased last quarter, stands out for its relevance. This capital return aligns with Yum China’s focus on shareholder value, supporting confidence as the business invests aggressively in new formats and rapid expansion, the core catalysts investors are watching closely.

Yet in contrast to the positive revenue momentum, investors should also be mindful of rising rider costs in the delivery channel which...

Read the full narrative on Yum China Holdings (it's free!)

Yum China Holdings is projected to reach $14.0 billion in revenue and $1.2 billion in earnings by 2028. This outcome assumes 7.0% annual revenue growth and reflects an earnings increase of about $281 million from current earnings of $919 million.

Uncover how Yum China Holdings' forecasts yield a $57.99 fair value, a 35% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community range from US$31.51 to US$57.99, reflecting seven distinct views on Yum China’s potential. While many expect aggressive expansion to drive revenue, consider how rising rider and labor costs may test those growth assumptions, explore more perspectives to inform your own view.

Explore 7 other fair value estimates on Yum China Holdings - why the stock might be worth 27% less than the current price!

Build Your Own Yum China Holdings Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Yum China Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 5 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Yum China Holdings research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Yum China Holdings' overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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