A Look At The Fair Value Of Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (NYSE:RCL)

Key Insights

• Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Royal Caribbean Cruises fair value estimate is US$133
• With US$123 share price, Royal Caribbean Cruises appears to be trading close to its estimated fair value
• The US$129 analyst price target for RCL is 3.4% less than our estimate of fair value

Does the January share price for Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (NYSE:RCL) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!

We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

View our latest analysis for Royal Caribbean Cruises

The Method

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033
Levered FCF ($, Millions)	US$1.67b	US$2.04b	US$1.82b	US$4.88b	US$3.98b	US$3.49b	US$3.21b	US$3.05b	US$2.97b	US$2.93b
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x3	Analyst x3	Analyst x1	Analyst x1	Analyst x1	Est @ -12.37%	Est @ -8.00%	Est @ -4.93%	Est @ -2.79%	Est @ -1.28%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 9.7%	US$1.5k	US$1.7k	US$1.4k	US$3.4k	US$2.5k	US$2.0k	US$1.7k	US$1.5k	US$1.3k	US$1.2k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$18b

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.2%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 9.7%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₃ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$2.9b× (1 + 2.2%) ÷ (9.7%– 2.2%) = US$40b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= US$40b÷ ( 1 + 9.7%)¹⁰= US$16b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$34b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$123, the company appears about fair value at a 7.7% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

Important Assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Royal Caribbean Cruises as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 9.7%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.488. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Royal Caribbean Cruises

Moving On:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Royal Caribbean Cruises, we've put together three relevant factors you should explore:

1. Risks: Take risks, for example - Royal Caribbean Cruises has 2 warning signs (and 1 which is concerning) we think you should know about.
2. Future Earnings: How does RCL's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.