Royal Caribbean Cruises Future Growth
Future criteria checks 2/6
Royal Caribbean Cruises is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 11.1% and 8.1% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 12.3% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 38% in 3 years.
Key information
11.1%
Earnings growth rate
12.31%
EPS growth rate
| Hospitality earnings growth | 19.7% |
| Revenue growth rate | 8.1% |
| Future return on equity | 38.02% |
| Analyst coverage | Good |
| Last updated | 28 Aug 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Recent updates
Seeking Alpha • Sep 10
Royal Caribbean: Macro Risks Dominate, But The Stock Has Overcorrected
Summary Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) has seen disappointing performance in recent months, in line with investor shyness towards the cruise set. Macro risks dominate, as crude prices start rising once again and higher inflation is likely to spillover into higher interest rates. Still, there's much going for the company, starting with its surprisingly positive Q2 2026 results and a resulting earnings forecast upgrade. The stock has dropped enough to make its market multiples attractive too, even if earnings disappoint going forward. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Aug 27
RCL: Future Upside Will Depend On Sustained Yield Acceleration
Royal Caribbean Cruises' analyst price target framework edges higher as fair value is updated to about $347 from roughly $336. The change is supported by Street research that cites stronger earnings estimates, firm yield guidance and slightly higher profit margin assumptions, partly offset by a modestly higher discount rate and a lower future P/E multiple.
Narrative Update • Aug 12
RCL: Mexican Project Uncertainty Will Constrain Future Earnings Upside
Royal Caribbean Cruises' fair value estimate has increased from $271.83 to $278.55 as analysts incorporate higher long term price targets across the Street, along with modestly adjusted assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins, discount rate, and future P/E. Analyst Commentary Street research on Royal Caribbean Cruises over recent months has been active, with a mix of higher price targets, rating changes, and adjustments to long term earnings and yield assumptions.Analysis Article • Jul 31
Results: Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates
It's been a pretty great week for Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. ( NYSE:RCL ) shareholders, with its shares surging 14...Narrative Update • Jul 29
RCL: Mexican Project Setbacks And Geopolitics Will Limit Further Upside
Royal Caribbean Cruises sees its analyst price target implied by the fair value model move higher by about $10 to $271.83, with analysts generally pointing to recent Q2 earnings beats, raised EPS outlooks and yield guidance, and higher Street price targets, even as a few firms flag valuation constraints and project delays. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Royal Caribbean Cruises shows a mix of optimism on earnings and yields alongside a more cautious tone around valuation, project execution and long term growth assumptions.
Narrative Update • Jul 14
RCL: Future Upside Will Come From Resilient Cruise Demand Strength
Royal Caribbean Cruises' analyst price target is updated to $413.58 from $425.00, as analysts weigh strong cruise demand, expanding capacity, and cost control against project delays and mixed revisions across recent research coverage. Analyst Commentary Recent research coverage on Royal Caribbean Cruises highlights a mix of optimism around demand, pricing, and cost control, alongside caution around project timing and industry headlines.Narrative Update • Jun 30
RCL: Project And Fuel Headwinds Will Cap Further Upside Potential
Royal Caribbean Cruises' analyst fair value has been adjusted slightly lower from $268.88 to $261.31. This reflects updated assumptions on discount rates, revenue growth, margins, and a more conservative future P/E, even as several firms revise price targets following shifts in fuel cost expectations and project specific risks around Perfect Day Mexico.Analysis Article • Jun 16
Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) Stock Could Be 5.6% Overvalued After Travel Sentiment Lift
Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) stock moved after renewed optimism around international relations, as a high profile diplomatic agreement lifted sentiment toward global travel, with cruise and airline stocks reacting alongside other beneficiaries of cross border activity. See our latest analysis for Royal Caribbean Cruises. Beyond the latest diplomatic news, Royal Caribbean Cruises has been in the spotlight for operational developments such as the new Seward, Alaska terminal and ongoing...Narrative Update • Jun 16
RCL: Future Share Performance Will Hinge On Mexico Project Uncertainty
The analyst price target for Royal Caribbean Cruises has edged slightly lower by about $2, reflecting modestly softer fair value, revenue growth, and profit margin assumptions as analysts weigh record demand against project delays, booking headlines, and a still-supportive industry setup for the cruise group. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Royal Caribbean Cruises highlights a mix of enthusiasm around the cruise industry setup and caution around project risk and recent share performance.Narrative Update • Jun 01
RCL: Future Earnings Power Will Depend On Mexico Project Resolution
Royal Caribbean Cruises' analyst price target has been trimmed by about $10 to reflect lower fair value, modestly softer revenue growth and profit margin assumptions, and a slightly lower future P/E, after analysts highlighted potential earnings and capacity risks tied to the Perfect Day Mexico project and recent booking headwinds in the broader cruise group. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Royal Caribbean has been active, with several firms revisiting their models after project updates, booking trends and earnings guidance changes.Narrative Update • May 04
RCL: Mixed Street Reset And 2026 Outlook Will Keep Upside In Check
Royal Caribbean's updated analyst price target has moved lower, with the fair value estimate shifting from $286.04 to $268.88 as analysts factor in a higher discount rate, slightly softer revenue growth and profit margin assumptions, and a higher future P/E multiple after a recent mix of target cuts and raises across the Street. Analyst Commentary Recent research around Royal Caribbean shows a mix of views, but the pattern of price target resets stands out.Narrative Update • Apr 20
RCL: 2026 Margin Profile And Cash Returns Will Support Further Upside
Analyst price targets for Royal Caribbean Cruises have been revised lower by about $13, reflecting updated expectations for slightly softer revenue growth, a modestly lower profit margin profile, a somewhat reduced future P/E, and a higher discount rate. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Royal Caribbean Cruises shows a mixed but active debate on where the shares should trade, with several large firms adjusting their price targets both higher and lower in quick succession.Narrative Update • Apr 05
RCL: Future Upside Will Rely On Enduring Cruise Demand Strength
Analysts maintained the Royal Caribbean Cruises fair value estimate at $425.00 and slightly adjusted underlying assumptions such as the discount rate and revenue growth, reflecting a mix of recent price target increases and trims across the Street while still leaning on expectations for solid demand and operational execution. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Royal Caribbean reflects a generally constructive tone, with most updates pointing to confidence in the company’s ability to execute on demand trends, pricing and capacity additions, even as some firms fine tune targets around shorter term Caribbean and geopolitical considerations.Narrative Update • Mar 21
RCL: Future Upside Will Rely On Sustained Cruise Demand Strength
Analysts have nudged Royal Caribbean Cruises' target higher to $376, reflecting tweaks to slightly lower discount rates, modestly stronger projected revenue growth and margins, and a small adjustment to future P/E assumptions supported by recent research that points to ongoing cruise demand and double digit revenue expectations into fiscal 2026. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Royal Caribbean points to an increasingly constructive tone, with several firms lifting price targets and highlighting supportive demand data, even as some acknowledge near term headwinds in specific regions such as the Caribbean.Narrative Update • Mar 07
RCL: Future Profitability And Buybacks Are Expected To Drive Upside
The analyst price target for Royal Caribbean Cruises has been raised to $425.00 from $414.78, with analysts pointing to stronger projected profit margins and a lower assumed future P/E multiple, even as revenue growth expectations are adjusted. Analyst Commentary Street research on Royal Caribbean Cruises has been active, with a cluster of price target revisions signaling how closely the stock is being tracked.Narrative Update • Feb 21
RCL: Elevated Expectations And Caribbean Yield Pressures Will Restrain Share Upside
Analysts have lifted their aggregate price target for Royal Caribbean Cruises, reflecting a move from about $245 to roughly $286 as they factor in updated expectations around discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E multiples following a series of recent target changes across the Street. Analyst Commentary Street research on Royal Caribbean Cruises has been active, with several firms revisiting their price targets and near term views.Narrative Update • Feb 06
RCL: 2026 Guidance And Margin Outlook Will Support Measured Upside Potential
Analysts have lifted their fair value estimate for Royal Caribbean Cruises by about $31 to $362, citing updated research that reflects slightly lower growth assumptions alongside firmer profit margin expectations and a broadly higher set of Street price targets. Analyst Commentary Street research on Royal Caribbean Cruises has been active, with several firms adjusting price targets in both directions.Narrative Update • Jan 23
RCL: Strong Demand And Buybacks Are Expected To Drive Upside
Analysts nudged their price targets higher on Royal Caribbean Cruises, with our fair value estimate moving from US$411.61 to about US$414.78 as they weighed stronger cruise demand data alongside mixed views on yields and costs. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Royal Caribbean Cruises points to a split tape, but the more optimistic voices highlight demand strength, supportive spend data, and confidence in the company’s ability to execute through near term headwinds.Narrative Update • Jan 09
RCL: Softer Revenue Yields And 2026 EPS Guidance Will Pressure Shares
Analysts have trimmed their price target for Royal Caribbean Cruises by about $23 to reflect a combination of slightly higher required returns, a modestly lower assumed profit margin and valuation multiple, and updated views on revenue growth and earnings visibility following recent Q3 commentary and 2026 guidance. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates on Royal Caribbean point to a more cautious tone, even as analysts continue to engage with the story following Q3 results and the release of 2026 guidance.Narrative Update • Dec 25
RCL: Share Repurchases And Efficient Fleet Are Expected To Drive Upside
Analysts have trimmed their price target on Royal Caribbean Cruises to about $411.61 from $420, citing slightly slower expected revenue growth, modestly lower profit margins, and a higher discount rate, even as they still see robust long term EPS expansion supported by the company's hardware advantages. Analyst Commentary Despite the modest recalibration in price targets, bullish analysts continue to emphasize Royal Caribbean's structural advantages, disciplined capacity growth, and strong earnings trajectory through the back half of the decade.Narrative Update • Dec 11
RCL: Reset 2026 Guidance Will Unlock Upside From Conservative Earnings Outlook
Analysts have nudged down their Royal Caribbean Cruises price target by about $5 per share, reflecting slightly higher discount rates and more conservative long term earnings and yield assumptions, even as they still expect robust EPS growth through 2028. Analyst Commentary Analysts are recalibrating their views on Royal Caribbean Cruises following the latest earnings update, trimming price targets but generally maintaining expectations for solid medium term growth and balance sheet progress.Narrative Update • Nov 27
RCL: Upside Will Emerge As 2026 Guidance Resets Market Expectations
Royal Caribbean’s analyst price target has been modestly reduced from $337 to $333, as analysts cite more cautious outlooks on future yield growth and mixed booking trends. This comes despite continued recognition of the company’s long-term strengths.Narrative Update • Nov 13
RCL: Earnings Upside Will Emerge As Conservative 2026 Guidance Resets Expectations
Analysts have modestly reduced their price target for Royal Caribbean Cruises, trimming it from approximately $344 to $337. They cite a slightly higher discount rate, marginally slower revenue growth and profit margin projections, as well as recent indications of softer yield momentum in upcoming quarters.Narrative Update • Oct 29
Earnings Momentum Will Recover As New Vessel Deliveries Accelerate Through 2028
Royal Caribbean Cruises' analyst price target has shifted downward by $11.78 to $344.09, as analysts cite conservative earnings guidance, softer-than-expected revenue yield trends, and mixed forward booking indicators. Analyst Commentary Recent analyst coverage of Royal Caribbean Cruises highlights both confidence in the company’s execution and caution around its future earnings trajectory.Narrative Update • Sep 19
New Cruise Ships And Private Destinations Will Expand Markets
Analysts have raised Royal Caribbean Cruises' price target to $355.87, citing strong forward demand, robust pricing power, industry-leading margins, and accretive land-based initiatives, while recent share gains leave some caution on tactical positioning. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts cite strong forward demand and robust pricing power driving significant upward EPS revisions for Royal Caribbean through 2027/2028.Narrative Update • Sep 04
New Cruise Ships And Private Destinations Will Expand Markets
Despite a less attractive near-term tactical setup following a sector rally, analysts cite strong demand, robust pricing, and superior margins as drivers for Royal Caribbean's long-term EPS and market share growth, resulting in the consensus price target remaining unchanged at $351.65. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts highlight strong forward demand, robust pricing, and optionality from land-based projects as drivers for increased price targets.Seeking Alpha • Mar 26
Royal Caribbean Cruises' Selloff Is Finally Here - Upgrade To Buy
Summary RCL has had the much needed correction from recent heights, with it triggering the cheaper valuations and richer double digits upside potential. Combined with the growing net yields, expanding profit margins, and healthier balance sheet, we believe that the company is well positioned to outperform moving forward. With many of its cruise/ travel peers still reporting excellent performance metrics, we believe that RCL is likely to deliver a beat and raise earnings call in FQ1'25. We shall further discuss why we are finally upgrading the stock to a Buy here, significantly aided by the moderating CBOE Volatility Index, lower short interest, and robust bullish support at the 200 DMA. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaEarnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2028 | 22,945 | 6,125 | 3,091 | 8,625 | 14 |
| 12/31/2027 | 20,982 | 5,393 | 3,059 | 7,626 | 25 |
| 12/31/2026 | 19,564 | 4,746 | 2,138 | 6,996 | 25 |
| 6/30/2026 | 18,682 | 4,398 | -416 | 6,786 | N/A |
| 3/31/2026 | 18,388 | 4,479 | 1,371 | 6,672 | N/A |
| 12/31/2025 | 17,935 | 4,268 | 1,236 | 6,465 | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | 17,436 | 4,067 | 2,035 | 6,309 | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | 17,183 | 3,603 | 3,587 | 5,737 | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | 16,755 | 3,247 | 2,110 | 5,564 | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 16,484 | 2,877 | 1,997 | 5,265 | N/A |
| 9/30/2024 | 16,055 | 2,602 | -370 | 4,914 | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 15,330 | 2,500 | -555 | 4,676 | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 14,742 | 2,105 | 608 | 4,495 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 13,900 | 1,697 | 580 | 4,477 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 13,172 | 920 | 2,441 | 3,937 | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | 12,005 | -56 | 1,793 | 3,233 | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | 10,667 | -1,037 | 721 | 2,320 | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 8,840 | -2,156 | -2,229 | 481 | N/A |
| 9/30/2022 | 7,219 | -3,013 | -3,418 | -300 | N/A |
| 6/30/2022 | 4,683 | -4,470 | -3,920 | -658 | N/A |
| 3/31/2022 | 2,549 | -5,296 | -4,129 | -1,597 | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | 1,532 | -5,260 | -4,108 | -1,878 | N/A |
| 9/30/2021 | 584 | -5,270 | -4,544 | -2,498 | N/A |
| 6/30/2021 | 93 | -5,193 | -4,812 | -2,952 | N/A |
| 3/31/2021 | 218 | -5,485 | -6,514 | -4,740 | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | 2,209 | -5,797 | -5,697 | -3,732 | N/A |
| 9/30/2020 | 4,692 | -4,157 | -4,553 | -2,297 | N/A |
| 6/30/2020 | 7,913 | -1,927 | -3,078 | -528 | N/A |
| 3/31/2020 | 10,544 | 185 | N/A | 2,837 | N/A |
| 12/31/2019 | 10,951 | 1,879 | N/A | 3,716 | N/A |
| 9/30/2019 | 10,766 | 1,921 | N/A | 3,839 | N/A |
| 6/30/2019 | 10,375 | 1,849 | N/A | 3,743 | N/A |
| 3/31/2019 | 9,906 | 1,842 | N/A | 3,633 | N/A |
| 12/31/2018 | 9,494 | 1,811 | N/A | 3,479 | N/A |
| 9/30/2018 | 9,166 | 1,783 | N/A | 3,167 | N/A |
| 6/30/2018 | 8,939 | 1,726 | N/A | 3,147 | N/A |
| 3/31/2018 | 8,797 | 1,629 | N/A | 3,002 | N/A |
| 12/31/2017 | 8,778 | 1,625 | N/A | 2,875 | N/A |
| 9/30/2017 | 8,683 | 1,598 | N/A | 2,970 | N/A |
| 6/30/2017 | 8,677 | 1,539 | N/A | 2,905 | N/A |
| 3/31/2017 | 8,587 | 1,399 | N/A | 2,835 | N/A |
| 12/31/2016 | 8,496 | 1,283 | N/A | 2,517 | N/A |
| 9/30/2016 | 8,489 | 1,229 | N/A | 2,339 | N/A |
| 6/30/2016 | 8,448 | 765 | N/A | 2,177 | N/A |
| 3/31/2016 | 8,401 | 720 | N/A | 1,998 | N/A |
| 12/31/2015 | 8,299 | 666 | N/A | 1,946 | N/A |
| 9/30/2015 | 8,215 | 569 | N/A | 1,892 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: RCL's forecast earnings growth (11.1% per year) is above the savings rate (3.7%).
Earnings vs Market: RCL's earnings (11.1% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (17.2% per year).
High Growth Earnings: RCL's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.
Revenue vs Market: RCL's revenue (8.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (13.4% per year).
High Growth Revenue: RCL's revenue (8.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: RCL's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (38%)
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/09/13 04:29 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/09/11 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/06/30 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. is covered by 49 analysts. 25 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| John Staszak | Argus Research Company |
| Brandt Montour | Barclays |
| Felicia Kantor Hendrix | Barclays |