McDonald's (MCD) Stock Overview
Owns, operates, and franchises restaurants under the McDonald’s brand in the United States and internationally. More details
| Snowflake Score | |
|---|---|
| Valuation | 3/6 |
| Future Growth | 2/6 |
| Past Performance | 2/6 |
| Financial Health | 1/6 |
| Dividends | 5/6 |
Rewards
Risk Analysis
Last Earnings Call
Q2 2026 · 4 Aug 2026Financial Results & Outlook
McDonald's Q2 2026 system-wide sales grew 4% in constant currency, with global comparable sales up 1.3%. Adjusted EPS was $3.38, a 5% increase year-over-year.
- Revenue Consensus: Analysts expected revenue of approximately $6.81 billion; the company reported $6.86 billion, representing a beat.
- EPS Consensus: Analysts expected EPS of approximately $3.32; the company reported $3.38, representing a beat.
Management highlighted that U.S. comparable sales growth (0.8%) fell below expectations due to inconsistent value menu execution, reduced digital offers, and "overwhelming" restaurant deployments. Management is addressing these operational and marketing hurdles while maintaining confidence in the "McDonald's > NEXT" growth strategy. The company also noted that reaching its 50,000-restaurant goal is now expected by 2028 rather than 2027, citing inflationary development costs and a pressured consumer environment.
Market Reaction
McDonald's stock fell by approximately 3.2% on August 4, 2026. Analysts cited the disappointing U.S. comparable sales growth and the admission of operational missteps—specifically the "bad trade" of reducing digital loyalty offers while launching the new value menu—as the primary drivers for the sell-off.
MCD Community Fair Values
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Analyst Price Targets
Top Community Narratives
US$238.97
FV
15.6% overvalued intrinsic discount4.86%
Revenue growth p.a.
333
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McDonald's Corporation Competitors
Price History & Performance
| Historical stock prices | |
|---|---|
| Current Share Price | US$276.26 |
| 52 Week High | US$341.75 |
| 52 Week Low | US$260.96 |
| Beta | 0.42 |
| 1 Month Change | -2.11% |
| 3 Month Change | 0.19% |
| 1 Year Change | -10.28% |
| 3 Year Change | -3.94% |
| 5 Year Change | 16.73% |
| Change since IPO | 157,855.83% |
Recent News & Updates
Seeking Alpha • Aug 04
McDonald's Q2: Decent Business, Unconvincing Stock
Summary McDonald's Corporation Q2 earnings were mixed, with 4% revenue growth and a 6% EPS increase, but missed top-line estimates. MCD’s U.S. comp sales rose 0.8%, driven by price/mix, yet traffic declined, highlighting macro pressures on consumers. EPS growth was primarily due to buybacks and lower taxes, as operating margin declined with SG&A up 19% from restructuring charges. I remain cautious on MCD stock, rating it Hold, as growth prospects are clouded by macro headwinds and limited upside at current valuation. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Jul 27
MCD: NEXT Automation And AI Will Support Long Term Cash Compounding
McDonald's price target narrative is being revised slightly lower to about $323.90 from roughly $331.29, as analysts factor in softer near term sales trends and a mixed restaurant backdrop while still expecting brand strength and market share gains over time. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on McDonald's reflects a split view, with most analysts trimming price targets while still highlighting the company's brand strength and long term positioning.Recent updates
Seeking Alpha • Aug 04
McDonald's Q2: Decent Business, Unconvincing Stock
Summary McDonald's Corporation Q2 earnings were mixed, with 4% revenue growth and a 6% EPS increase, but missed top-line estimates. MCD’s U.S. comp sales rose 0.8%, driven by price/mix, yet traffic declined, highlighting macro pressures on consumers. EPS growth was primarily due to buybacks and lower taxes, as operating margin declined with SG&A up 19% from restructuring charges. I remain cautious on MCD stock, rating it Hold, as growth prospects are clouded by macro headwinds and limited upside at current valuation. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaNarrative Update • Jul 27
MCD: NEXT Automation And AI Will Support Long Term Cash Compounding
McDonald's price target narrative is being revised slightly lower to about $323.90 from roughly $331.29, as analysts factor in softer near term sales trends and a mixed restaurant backdrop while still expecting brand strength and market share gains over time. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on McDonald's reflects a split view, with most analysts trimming price targets while still highlighting the company's brand strength and long term positioning.Narrative Update • Jun 18
MCD: Next Era Restaurant Upgrades And AI Will Support Franchise Cash Returns
Analysts have trimmed their average McDonald's price target by roughly $20, reflecting slightly higher discount rate assumptions and modest tweaks to long term revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E expectations, even though the stock has been added to some high conviction lists. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around McDonald's highlights a mixed setup, with several banks trimming price targets while the stock is still being added to high conviction lists.Narrative Update • Jun 04
MCD: Value Menu And Dividend Strength Will Support Franchise Cash Returns
Analysts now set McDonald's fair value at about $331.29, a modest adjustment from $330. This reflects a blend of recent target cuts from several firms and inclusion on Jefferies' Franchise Picks list, with updated assumptions for slightly higher revenue growth, a similar profit margin profile, and a future P/E of about 28.47x.Narrative Update • May 20
MCD: Value Menu Reset Will Support High Conviction Franchise Cash Generation
Analysts have trimmed the McDonald's fair value estimate from $345.00 to $330.00, reflecting slightly lower assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E multiples, even as broader research remains generally constructive on the stock. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on McDonald's reflects a mix of optimism and caution, with several firms adjusting price targets and ratings while reassessing growth, margins, and valuation multiples.Narrative Update • Apr 27
MCD: Value Menu Reset Will Support Digital And Franchise Model Upside
McDonald's updated analyst price target edges up by about $0.15 to $345.00 as analysts factor in slightly higher profit margin expectations and a modestly adjusted discount rate, following a wave of recent upgrades and target revisions across the Street. Analyst Commentary Street research on McDonald's has been active, with a cluster of target changes and rating moves pointing to a mixed but generally constructive debate around valuation, earnings quality, and the pace of future growth.Narrative Update • Apr 11
MCD: Value Menu Repositioning Will Support Digital And Franchise Model Breakout
McDonald's updated analyst price target edges slightly lower to about $344.85 from $345.21. Analysts point to a modestly higher discount rate and slightly softer profit margin assumptions, while continuing to highlight the brand's global reach, digital investments, and franchise model in recent research.Narrative Update • Mar 27
MCD: Value Menu Repositioning And Digital Efficiencies Are Expected To Support Breakout
McDonald's Analyst Price Target has been nudged higher to $345.21 from $344.09 as analysts point to the company's powerful global brand, rapid unit expansion, digital and AI-driven efficiencies, and an asset light franchise model as key supports for its updated valuation. Analyst Commentary Recent research on McDonald's has been skewed toward higher price targets and rating upgrades, with several banks citing brand strength, digital investments, and the franchise model as key supports for the current valuation reset.Narrative Update • Mar 13
MCD: Value Repositioning And Digital Efficiencies Are Expected To Support Breakout Potential
Analysts have nudged our McDonald's fair value estimate higher from $341.28 to $344.09. This reflects their higher Street price targets that point to the brand's global reach, franchise model, operational efficiencies, and steady U.S. business momentum.Narrative Update • Feb 27
MCD: Value And Digital Execution Are Expected To Support Breakout Setup
Narrative Update McDonald's fair value estimate edges up by about $2 to $341.28 as analysts lift price targets across the stock. They cite what they see as higher quality growth, strong profitability and benefits from digital investments, marketing and value initiatives into 2026.Narrative Update • Feb 13
MCD: Value Positioning And Brand Repositioning Are Expected To Support Breakout Potential
Analysts have nudged their McDonald's price target higher to about $339 from $331, citing modestly stronger revenue growth assumptions, a slightly lower discount rate, and only small tweaks to long term profit margin and future P/E expectations. Analyst Commentary Recent research on McDonald's has been active, with several price target revisions and rating changes clustered around a similar thesis.Narrative Update • Dec 20
MCD: Value Strategy And Cost Tailwinds Will Balance Consumer Traffic Risks
Analysts have nudged their price target on McDonald's slightly higher to $331.20. This reflects modest improvements in projected revenue growth and profit margins, even as they remain cautious about the company's value focus amid ongoing pressure on lower income consumers.Narrative Update • Dec 06
MCD: Value Promotions And Remodels Will Balance Consumer And Margin Pressures
Analysts have trimmed their McDonald's fair value estimate slightly, lowering the target by about $0.30 to roughly $331. This reflects modestly softer long term revenue growth assumptions and a higher discount rate, which offset a small improvement in projected profit margins and still robust expectations for value driven traffic and potential multiple expansion.Narrative Update • Nov 22
MCD: Value Initiatives And Consumer Headwinds Will Shape Market Share Performance
McDonald's analyst fair value estimate was nudged higher to $331.53 from $330.87, as analysts point to ongoing value initiatives and expectations for store growth and market share gains, which support the updated outlook. Analyst Commentary Recent analyst notes on McDonald's highlight a mix of optimism about the company’s value initiatives and store growth, while also flagging continued caution regarding consumer trends and traffic drivers.Narrative Update • Nov 08
MCD: Value Focus And Consumer Trends Will Shape Performance Amid Mixed Signals
McDonald's analyst price target edged slightly lower to $330.87 from $331.14, a modest adjustment reflecting analysts' cautious outlook over mixed consumer traffic trends and evolving value strategies, while balancing these factors against resilient revenue growth forecasts. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on McDonald's reflects a broad mix of optimism and caution, with price targets being adjusted in response to changing consumer dynamics and evolving company strategies.Narrative Update • Oct 25
Future Performance Will Rely On Value Positioning And Digital Expansion
Analysts have slightly lowered their fair value price target for McDonald's to $331.14 from $331.52. They cite continued caution around consumer spending and uncertainty over the impact of value-focused initiatives on traffic and margins.Narrative Update • Oct 10
International Expansion And Digital Commerce Will Shape Future Success
Analysts have modestly reduced their fair value estimate for McDonald's to $331.52, a decrease of about $4. This adjustment reflects cautious outlooks on the company's value-driven strategy and continued pressure on lower-income consumer spending.Narrative Update • Sep 04
International Expansion And Digital Commerce Will Shape Future Success
Analysts remain divided on the benefits and risks of McDonald's value initiatives amid a challenging competitive landscape and cautious U.S. consumer outlook, with the consensus price target unchanged at $334.85. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts highlight McDonald's scale, marketing power, and digital leadership as key advantages in navigating consumer uncertainty and driving share gains, especially through new products and targeted promotions.Seeking Alpha • Apr 28
McDonald's: Steady Fundamentals, Cloudy Future Of Tariffs
Summary McDonald's remains a solid company with stable fundamentals, but its current price suggests modest long-term returns. Despite historical revenue slumps, McDonald's has grown free cash flow by controlling gross margins, crucial amid concerns about Trump's tariffs and rising costs. The company's strong balance sheet, supported by valuable real estate assets, ensures it can manage debt and weather economic headwinds effectively. With Q1 2025 earnings approaching, management's insights on tariffs and consumer impact will be pivotal; current valuation suggests fair value, lacking major growth catalysts. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Apr 18
McDonald's Golden Arches In Danger -- Numerous Headwinds Ahead
Summary MCD's bullish uptrend support remains robust, thanks to its excellent branding power as the largest food-chain in the world, with $221.9B in brand valuation in 2024. Even so, it is undeniable that MCD has delivered underwhelming comparable sales growth and profit margins in 2024, worsened by the impacted balance sheet health. If anything, readers must note that its FY2025 guidance has yet to "include any impact from potential new tariffs," worsened by the deteriorating macroeconomic and consumer environment. The growing anti-US sentiments may also derail MCD's ambitious international growth plans, particularly in China, pending further policy clarity. Combined with the higher short interest volumes, heightened risks of stagflation, and pulled forward upside potential, MCD's golden arch investment thesis appears mixed indeed. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Mar 18
McDonald's: Value Menu, Digital Focus To Sustain Competitive Advantage, Upgrade To Buy
Summary I think McDonald’s stock will be a safe heaven in 2025 considering the uncertainty surrounding tariff and inflation. The company’s value menu and digital focus would sustain their competitive advantage despite a weak consumer spending environment. The company handled the food safety crisis well, and I think McDonald's steady growth will be favored amid the uncertain macro environment. I am upgrading MCD stock with a ‘Buy’ rating and a fair value of $320. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Feb 26
Wall Street Lunch: McDonald's Will Digest High Egg Prices
Summary McDonald's is absorbing higher egg costs due to bird flu, unlike competitors adding surcharges, and is promoting a $1 McMuffin to attract budget-conscious consumers. Chip stocks are rallying ahead of Nvidia's earnings report, with significant open interest in SMCI options indicating potential volatility. New home sales fell in January, but median prices rose, with economists predicting slight declines in prices over the next few quarters. Amazon unveiled Alexa+, an AI-powered assistant with enhanced capabilities, while Wells Fargo sees an opportunity in Communications Services stocks due to recent non-fundamental sell-offs. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Feb 12
McDonald's: Not Finding Compelling McValue Here
Summary McDonald's delivered poor Q4 results, with flat revenue, missing Street expectations despite stronger performance in overseas markets. Same-store sales growth in the U.S. declined due to an E. coli outbreak, offsetting the benefits of the company's $5 Meal Deal extension. The company announced a new McValue offering in the U.S. in January, officially extending the Meal Deal through summer, but in my view, this will do little to help trends. I'm reiterating my sell rating on McDonald's stock, especially as the stock trades at a ~25x forward P/E for nearly nonexistent earnings growth. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jan 28
McDonald's Committed To Winning The Value Battle (Q4 Earnings Preview)
Summary McDonald's business model, primarily as a franchisor, ensures stable, recurring revenues with less operational risk, but limits gains during sales spikes. Despite facing headwinds like high commodity prices and traffic challenges, McDonald's expansion plans and value meals aim to drive growth and maintain volume. In this article, we will focus on the upcoming earnings report to understand what the key points may be and how they could affect McDonald's share price. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaShareholder Returns
| MCD | US Hospitality | US Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7D | 2.9% | 0.04% | 3.5% |
| 1Y | -10.3% | -3.2% | 20.5% |
Return vs Industry: MCD underperformed the US Hospitality industry which returned -3.2% over the past year.
Return vs Market: MCD underperformed the US Market which returned 20.5% over the past year.
Price Volatility
| MCD volatility | |
|---|---|
| MCD Average Weekly Movement | 3.2% |
| Hospitality Industry Average Movement | 6.8% |
| Market Average Movement | 7.3% |
| 10% most volatile stocks in US Market | 16.1% |
| 10% least volatile stocks in US Market | 3.1% |
Stable Share Price: MCD has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months compared to the US market.
Volatility Over Time: MCD's weekly volatility (3%) has been stable over the past year.
About the Company
| Founded | Employees | CEO | Website |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1940 | 150,000 | Chris Kempczinski | www.mcdonalds.com |
McDonald's Corporation owns, operates, and franchises restaurants under the McDonald’s brand in the United States and internationally. It offers food and beverages, including hamburgers and cheeseburgers, various chicken sandwiches, fries, shakes, frozen desserts, sundaes, soft serve cones, cookies, pies, soft drinks, coffee, and other beverages; and full or limited breakfast, as well as sells various other products during limited-time promotions. The company owns and operates franchised restaurants under various structures, including conventional franchise, developmental license, or affiliate.
McDonald's Corporation Fundamentals Summary
| MCD fundamental statistics | |
|---|---|
| Market cap | US$194.68b |
| Earnings (TTM) | US$8.79b |
| Revenue (TTM) | US$27.70b |
22.3x
P/E Ratio7.1x
P/S RatioIs MCD overvalued?
See Fair Value and valuation analysisEarnings & Revenue
| MCD income statement (TTM) | |
|---|---|
| Revenue | US$27.70b |
| Cost of Revenue | US$11.81b |
| Gross Profit | US$15.90b |
| Other Expenses | US$7.11b |
| Earnings | US$8.79b |
Last Reported Earnings
Jun 30, 2026
Next Earnings Date
n/a
| Earnings per share (EPS) | 12.37 |
| Gross Margin | 57.38% |
| Net Profit Margin | 31.72% |
| Debt/Equity Ratio | -4,268.7% |
How did MCD perform over the long term?
See historical performance and comparisonDividends
2.7%
Current Dividend Yield59%
Payout RatioDoes MCD pay a reliable dividends?
See MCD dividend history and benchmarks| McDonald's dividend dates | |
|---|---|
| Ex Dividend Date | Sep 01 2026 |
| Dividend Pay Date | Sep 16 2026 |
| Days until Ex dividend | 25 days |
| Days until Dividend pay date | 40 days |
Does MCD pay a reliable dividends?
See MCD dividend history and benchmarksCompany Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/08/06 03:59 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/08/06 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/06/30 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
McDonald's Corporation is covered by 61 analysts. 32 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Jim Marrone | Accountability Research Corporation |
| John Staszak | Argus Research Company |
| David Tarantino | Baird |