- Ever wondered if Coursera is truly worth its current price, or if the stock is hiding more value than meets the eye? You are not alone. The real story may surprise you.
- Coursera has seen its share price slide 6.3% over the last week and 26.4% over the past month, but it is still up 13.2% over the last year. This demonstrates that there is both opportunity and risk in the mix.
- Recent headlines about Coursera's growing partnerships with universities and tech firms, along with ongoing innovation in online learning, have grabbed investors' attention. These developments are adding new layers to its growth story and stirring debate around its future prospects.
- Currently, Coursera scores a 3 out of 6 on our valuation checks, placing it firmly in the middle of the pack for potential value opportunities. Let’s dig into how we arrive at that score and why the best way to understand Coursera’s value might be something you have not considered yet.
Approach 1: Coursera Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model estimates a company's intrinsic value by projecting its future cash flows and discounting them back to today's dollars. For Coursera, this model uses a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach, which means analysts forecast cash flows for several years ahead and then Simply Wall St extrapolates growth for later years based on industry trends and modest estimates.
Currently, Coursera's Free Cash Flow stands at $91.96 million. Analysts predict modest growth ahead, with cash flows projected to reach $94.82 million by 2027 and moving higher over the following years. By 2035, the extrapolated estimate is $117.48 million. All cash flows are measured in USD and, with these projections, the model calculates Coursera's fair value at $13.94 per share.
Compared to its recent market price, this intrinsic value suggests Coursera is trading at a 43.3% discount, making it look meaningfully undervalued. In other words, the cash flow outlook indicates there may be more value in Coursera’s shares than the market currently recognizes.
Result: UNDERVALUED
Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Coursera is undervalued by 43.3%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 923 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.
Approach 2: Coursera Price vs Sales
The Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio is especially relevant for companies like Coursera that are still establishing consistent profitability but have meaningful and growing revenue streams. This metric allows investors to measure how much the market is willing to pay for each dollar of Coursera’s sales, which can be more informative than earnings-based multiples for companies in the growth stage or those still investing heavily in their future.
Typically, higher growth expectations or lower risk justify a higher "normal" P/S ratio, while lower growth or elevated risk would suggest a multiple closer to or below industry averages. Coursera’s current P/S multiple stands at 1.78x, compared to the Consumer Services industry average of 1.30x and a peer average of 1.47x. This initially suggests Coursera trades at a premium to its sector and peers based purely on sales valuation.
To provide deeper context, Simply Wall St’s proprietary “Fair Ratio” aims to pinpoint the appropriate P/S multiple for Coursera by considering additional factors such as its expected revenue growth, risk profile, typical profit margins, and even company size. Unlike simple peer or industry comparisons, the Fair Ratio accounts for Coursera’s unique characteristics and future outlook. For Coursera, the Fair Ratio is calculated at 1.17x.
Comparing Coursera’s actual P/S of 1.78x to its Fair Ratio of 1.17x suggests that, given its fundamentals and outlook, the stock may be pricing in a bit too much optimism based on its sales. The shares appear somewhat expensive by this measure.
Result: OVERVALUED
PS ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1424 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.
Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Coursera Narrative
Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let's introduce you to Narratives. Narratives are simple yet powerful tools that connect your perspective on a company with the numbers behind its future. Think of them as your personal story for why you believe Coursera will perform a certain way, based on assumptions about its revenue growth, earnings, and margins.
By building a Narrative, you link Coursera’s story, including its competitive strengths, risks, and opportunities, to a financial forecast, which then leads to your own estimate of fair value. Narratives distill the overwhelming details into one easy view, accessible on Simply Wall St’s Community page, where millions of investors share and compare their perspectives.
Using Narratives, you can quickly see if your fair value for Coursera is above or below the current share price and decide if now is the right time to buy, hold, or sell. Best of all, Narratives automatically update as new earnings reports or news are released, keeping your investment decision relevant as circumstances change.
For example, some investors see Coursera’s global reach, AI-driven innovation, and surging demand for credentials as strong tailwinds, leading them to price Coursera above $15 per share. Others focus on intense competition or monetization hurdles, justifying targets as low as $9 per share.
Do you think there's more to the story for Coursera? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.
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