The Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE:CMG) Annual Results Are Out And Analysts Have Published New Forecasts

Shareholders might have noticed that Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE:CMG) filed its annual result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.8% to US$57.32 in the past week. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of US$11b and statutory earnings per share of US$1.11. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Chipotle Mexican Grill

After the latest results, the 32 analysts covering Chipotle Mexican Grill are now predicting revenues of US$12.7b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a notable 12% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to climb 14% to US$1.29. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$12.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.31 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at US$64.70, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Chipotle Mexican Grill, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$75.00 and the most bearish at US$42.00 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Chipotle Mexican Grill'shistorical trends, as the 12% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 15% annual growth over the past five years. Juxtapose this against our data, which suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 9.7% per year. So although Chipotle Mexican Grill is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's only growing at about the rate of the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$64.70, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Chipotle Mexican Grill analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for Chipotle Mexican Grill you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.