Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. Importantly, Biglari Holdings Inc. (NYSE:BH.A) does carry debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
Check out our latest analysis for Biglari Holdings
What Is Biglari Holdings's Debt?
As you can see below, Biglari Holdings had US$153.1m of debt at September 2020, down from US$180.6m a year prior. However, because it has a cash reserve of US$118.2m, its net debt is less, at about US$34.8m.
How Strong Is Biglari Holdings's Balance Sheet?
According to the last reported balance sheet, Biglari Holdings had liabilities of US$288.2m due within 12 months, and liabilities of US$157.2m due beyond 12 months. Offsetting this, it had US$118.2m in cash and US$16.2m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$311.0m.
This is a mountain of leverage relative to its market capitalization of US$378.0m. This suggests shareholders would be heavily diluted if the company needed to shore up its balance sheet in a hurry.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
Biglari Holdings has a very low debt to EBITDA ratio of 0.46 so it is strange to see weak interest coverage, with last year's EBIT being only 2.4 times the interest expense. So while we're not necessarily alarmed we think that its debt is far from trivial. We also note that Biglari Holdings improved its EBIT from a last year's loss to a positive US$40m. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is Biglari Holdings's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So it is important to check how much of its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) converts to actual free cash flow. Over the last year, Biglari Holdings actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT. There's nothing better than incoming cash when it comes to staying in your lenders' good graces.
Our View
Biglari Holdings's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow was a real positive on this analysis, as was its net debt to EBITDA. In contrast, our confidence was undermined by its apparent struggle to cover its interest expense with its EBIT. Looking at all this data makes us feel a little cautious about Biglari Holdings's debt levels. While debt does have its upside in higher potential returns, we think shareholders should definitely consider how debt levels might make the stock more risky. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for Biglari Holdings you should be aware of, and 1 of them is potentially serious.
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
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About NYSE:BH.A
Biglari Holdings
Through its subsidiaries, primarily operates and franchises restaurants in the United States.
Flawless balance sheet with proven track record.