A Look At The Fair Value Of Aramark (NYSE:ARMK)

Key Insights

• Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Aramark fair value estimate is US$30.00
• Current share price of US$34.52 suggests Aramark is potentially trading close to its fair value
• Analyst price target for ARMK is US$44.53, which is 48% above our fair value estimate

Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Aramark (NYSE:ARMK) as an investment opportunity by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.

This technology could replace computers: discover the 20 stocks are working to make quantum computing a reality.

The Method

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034
Levered FCF ($, Millions)	US$345.4m	US$472.3m	US$572.0m	US$555.0m	US$590.0m	US$618.1m	US$643.8m	US$667.9m	US$690.9m	US$713.2m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x5	Analyst x5	Analyst x2	Analyst x1	Analyst x1	Est @ 4.76%	Est @ 4.16%	Est @ 3.74%	Est @ 3.44%	Est @ 3.23%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 9.5%	US$316	US$394	US$436	US$387	US$375	US$359	US$342	US$324	US$306	US$289

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$3.5b

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.8%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 9.5%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₄ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$713m× (1 + 2.8%) ÷ (9.5%– 2.8%) = US$11b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= US$11b÷ ( 1 + 9.5%)¹⁰= US$4.4b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$8.0b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$34.5, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

The Assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Aramark as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 9.5%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.549. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Check out our latest analysis for Aramark

SWOT Analysis for Aramark

Looking Ahead:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Aramark, we've put together three further aspects you should further examine:

1. Risks: Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Aramark you should know about.
2. Future Earnings: How does ARMK's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.