Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Valuation

Is RRGB undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of RRGB when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: RRGB ($5.2) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($47.46)

Significantly Below Fair Value: RRGB is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for RRGB?

Key metric: As RRGB is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for RRGB. This is calculated by dividing RRGB's market cap by their current revenue.
What is RRGB's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio	0.06x
Sales	US$1.27b
Market Cap	US$81.96m

RRGB key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.5x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	19.4x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does RRGB's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for RRGB vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PS	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	1x
MHGU Meritage Hospitality Group	0.2x	n/a	US$102.3m
STKS ONE Group Hospitality	0.2x	35.5%	US$105.8m
BDL Flanigan's Enterprises	0.2x	n/a	US$46.2m
RAVE Rave Restaurant Group	3.5x	n/a	US$42.5m
RRGB Red Robin Gourmet Burgers	0.06x	0.5%	US$82.0m

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: RRGB is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.1x) compared to the peer average (1x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does RRGB's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Hospitality Industry?

31 Companies	Price / Sales	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Industry Avg.	1.6x	10.1%
RRGB Red Robin Gourmet Burgers	0.06x	0.5%	US$81.96m
BLMN Bloomin' Brands	0.2x	-2.7%	US$1.12b
BALY Bally's	0.3x	2.2%	US$721.02m

31 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Industry Avg.	1.6x	26.5%
RRGB Red Robin Gourmet Burgers	0.06x	50.7%	US$81.96m

No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: RRGB is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.1x) compared to the US Hospitality industry average (1.6x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is RRGB's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

RRGB PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio	0.06x
Fair PS Ratio	0.3x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: RRGB is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst RRGB forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	US$5.20	US$8.88 +70.8%	21.2%	US$11.00	US$6.00	n/a	4
Nov ’25	US$5.93	US$10.88 +83.4%	32.9%	US$16.00	US$6.00	n/a	4
Oct ’25	US$4.37	US$10.63 +143.1%	37.0%	US$16.00	US$5.00	n/a	4
Sep ’25	US$3.50	US$10.63 +203.6%	37.0%	US$16.00	US$5.00	n/a	4
Aug ’25	US$5.60	US$15.38 +174.6%	34.1%	US$20.00	US$6.50	n/a	4
Jul ’25	US$6.88	US$15.63 +127.1%	30.8%	US$20.00	US$7.50	n/a	4
Jun ’25	US$8.10	US$15.63 +92.9%	30.8%	US$20.00	US$7.50	n/a	4
May ’25	US$7.54	US$15.25 +102.3%	32.6%	US$20.00	US$7.00	n/a	4
Apr ’25	US$7.41	US$13.25 +78.8%	35.8%	US$18.00	US$8.50	n/a	2
Mar ’25	US$7.58	US$13.25 +74.8%	35.8%	US$18.00	US$8.50	n/a	2
Feb ’25	US$10.56	US$16.50 +56.3%	33.3%	US$22.00	US$11.00	n/a	2
Jan ’25	US$12.47	US$16.50 +32.3%	33.3%	US$22.00	US$11.00	n/a	2
Dec ’24	US$9.32	US$15.50 +66.3%	41.9%	US$22.00	US$9.00	n/a	2
Nov ’24	US$7.99	US$15.50 +94.0%	41.9%	US$22.00	US$9.00	US$5.93	2
Oct ’24	US$8.04	US$17.00 +111.4%	29.4%	US$22.00	US$12.00	US$4.37	2
Sep ’24	US$10.42	US$17.00 +63.1%	29.4%	US$22.00	US$12.00	US$3.50	2
Aug ’24	US$14.21	US$18.50 +30.2%	18.9%	US$22.00	US$15.00	US$5.60	2
Jul ’24	US$13.83	US$18.50 +33.8%	18.9%	US$22.00	US$15.00	US$6.88	2
Jun ’24	US$12.54	US$18.50 +47.5%	18.9%	US$22.00	US$15.00	US$8.10	2
May ’24	US$13.02	US$13.25 +1.8%	35.8%	US$18.00	US$8.50	US$7.54	2
Apr ’24	US$14.32	US$13.25 -7.5%	35.8%	US$18.00	US$8.50	US$7.41	2
Mar ’24	US$10.82	US$11.25 +4.0%	24.4%	US$14.00	US$8.50	US$7.58	2

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.