Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc.

NasdaqGS:MCRI Stock Report

Market Cap: US$1.6b

Monarch Casino & Resort Valuation

Is MCRI undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MCRI when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
US$150.83
Fair Value
43.1% undervalued intrinsic discount
5
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: MCRI ($85.88) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($150.83)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MCRI is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MCRI?

Key metric: As MCRI is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for MCRI. This is calculated by dividing MCRI's market cap by their current earnings.
What is MCRI's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio18.2x
EarningsUS$86.76m
Market CapUS$1.58b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MCRI's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for MCRI vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average38.3x
EVRI Everi Holdings
90.1x61.8%US$1.2b
RRR Red Rock Resorts
17.9x11.7%US$5.0b
ACEL Accel Entertainment
21.6x15.2%US$933.0m
GDEN Golden Entertainment
23.6x-22.2%US$914.8m
MCRI Monarch Casino & Resort
18.2x3.3%US$1.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MCRI is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.2x) compared to the peer average (38.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MCRI's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Hospitality Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
THRS.F Agility Real Estate
1.7xn/aUS$2.05m
No more companies available in this PE range
MCRI 18.2xIndustry Avg. 25.0xNo. of Companies14PE01632486480+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MCRI is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.2x) compared to the US Hospitality industry average (25x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MCRI's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MCRI PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio18.2x
Fair PE Ratio18x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MCRI is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MCRI forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$85.88
US$85.80
-0.09%
9.0%US$100.00US$79.00n/a5
Jan ’26US$78.90
US$77.80
-1.4%
3.8%US$82.00US$73.00n/a5
Dec ’25US$84.01
US$77.50
-7.7%
4.1%US$82.00US$73.00n/a4
Nov ’25US$78.45
US$77.50
-1.2%
4.1%US$82.00US$73.00n/a4
Oct ’25US$77.48
US$73.00
-5.8%
3.8%US$76.00US$69.00n/a4
Sep ’25US$75.92
US$73.00
-3.8%
3.8%US$76.00US$69.00n/a4
Aug ’25US$74.74
US$73.00
-2.3%
3.8%US$76.00US$69.00n/a4
Jul ’25US$66.37
US$72.50
+9.2%
3.2%US$75.00US$69.00n/a4
Jun ’25US$66.97
US$72.50
+8.3%
3.2%US$75.00US$69.00n/a4
May ’25US$68.47
US$72.75
+6.3%
3.6%US$76.00US$69.00n/a4
Apr ’25US$74.12
US$72.50
-2.2%
3.2%US$75.00US$69.00n/a4
Mar ’25US$68.62
US$72.50
+5.7%
3.2%US$75.00US$69.00n/a4
Feb ’25US$69.47
US$72.25
+4.0%
2.5%US$75.00US$70.00n/a4
Jan ’25US$69.15
US$74.00
+7.0%
9.1%US$83.00US$65.00US$78.904
Dec ’24US$64.39
US$74.00
+14.9%
9.1%US$83.00US$65.00US$84.014
Nov ’24US$60.56
US$74.00
+22.2%
9.1%US$83.00US$65.00US$78.454
Oct ’24US$62.10
US$85.25
+37.3%
9.3%US$95.00US$77.00US$77.484
Sep ’24US$67.37
US$85.50
+26.9%
8.9%US$95.00US$78.00US$75.924
Aug ’24US$69.15
US$85.50
+23.6%
8.9%US$95.00US$78.00US$74.744
Jul ’24US$70.45
US$86.00
+22.1%
8.3%US$95.00US$78.00US$66.374
Jun ’24US$65.99
US$86.00
+30.3%
8.3%US$95.00US$78.00US$66.974
May ’24US$69.60
US$86.00
+23.6%
8.3%US$95.00US$78.00US$68.474
Apr ’24US$74.15
US$86.25
+16.3%
8.1%US$95.00US$78.00US$74.124
Mar ’24US$74.49
US$86.25
+15.8%
8.1%US$95.00US$78.00US$68.624
Feb ’24US$77.76
US$82.25
+5.8%
11.8%US$95.00US$68.00US$69.474
Jan ’24US$76.89
US$79.00
+2.7%
9.7%US$89.00US$68.00US$69.154
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 5 Analysts
US$85.80
Fair Value
0.09% overvalued intrinsic discount
5
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/01/30 00:16
End of Day Share Price 2025/01/30 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. is covered by 14 analysts. 5 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Justin SebastianoBrean Capital
Adam TrivisonG. Research, LLC
Gregg KleinImperial Capital