A Fresh Look at Marriott International (MAR) Valuation Following a Modest Share Price Rise

Marriott International (MAR) shares have seen a modest uptick recently, with the stock moving up around 4% over the past month. Investors are keeping an eye on the company’s performance as travel trends change and the broader market shifts.

See our latest analysis for Marriott International.

Marriott International's share price has jumped almost 12% over the past month, suggesting that investors are warming up to the company again as travel demand steadies. While short-term momentum looks solid, the one-year total shareholder return is modest at 4.7%. This figure lags behind its exceptional 83% return over three years and 151% over five years.

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With shares climbing but longer-term returns trailing historic highs, the question now facing investors is clear: has Marriott already factored in all the good news, or is there still hidden value waiting to be unlocked?

Most Popular Narrative: 2.1% Overvalued

Marriott International’s most followed narrative places its fair value ($285.29) just below the last close price of $291.16, hinting at a slight premium. This sets up a debate about whether future growth truly justifies paying extra for the stock right now.

Global expansion continues to accelerate, with net rooms growth approaching 5% and a record pipeline (over 590,000 rooms, 40% under construction). This reflects strong demand for Marriott's brands in international markets, particularly APAC and EMEA. A rising middle class is driving double-digit RevPAR increases and provides a foundation for multi-year revenue growth.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what bold, category-defining assumptions push Marriott’s valuation above current market levels? The cash flow forecast and earnings growth behind this narrative might surprise you. Want a glimpse of the ambitious numbers and unique business dynamics that shape this premium price? Unpack the math that has analysts paying up for future hospitality trends.

Result: Fair Value of $285.29 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent global uncertainty or flat RevPAR in key international markets could dampen Marriott’s growth story and challenge bullish analyst forecasts.

Find out about the key risks to this Marriott International narrative.

Build Your Own Marriott International Narrative

If you’re eager to dig into the numbers and shape your own perspective, crafting a personal narrative takes just a couple of minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Marriott International research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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