Chagee Holdings Limited

NasdaqGS:CHA Stock Report

Market Cap: US$2.1b

Chagee Holdings Future Growth

Future criteria checks 3/6

Chagee Holdings is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 20.4% and 8.9% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 13.7% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 16.7% in 3 years.

Key information

20.4%

Earnings growth rate

13.67%

EPS growth rate

Hospitality earnings growth17.9%
Revenue growth rate8.9%
Future return on equity16.67%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated27 Apr 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Chagee: Burden Of Proof Is High

Apr 08

Q4 Update - More teahouses, less revenue, more costs

Compared with Q4 2024, Chagee has ~15% more teahouses (7453 to 6440), and yet has 10.8% lower revenues. This is represented by average monthly GMV per teahouse dropping from 456k to 337k RMB (down 26%).

Q3 Update - Revenue sustained only by growth

Revenues did not grow in line with new teahouse openings, and average monthly GMV is down 30% from the previous year. Rate of teahouse growth per quarter is ~5%.

Why We're Not Concerned About Chagee Holdings Limited's (NASDAQ:CHA) Share Price

Dec 01
Why We're Not Concerned About Chagee Holdings Limited's (NASDAQ:CHA) Share Price

A Look At The Fair Value Of Chagee Holdings Limited (NASDAQ:CHA)

Oct 16
A Look At The Fair Value Of Chagee Holdings Limited (NASDAQ:CHA)

Cheap if able to sustain revenue, and a potential bargain if able to turn store openings into revenue growth

Conservative valuation of $24.28 based on sustained revenues of ~RMB3bn/quarter. Potential upside if growth in store openings realises additional revenue.

Chagee Holdings' IPO Offers A Compelling PEG Proposition

Apr 21

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NasdaqGS:CHA - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (CNY Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/202816,1712,0701,9612,4915
12/31/202716,2552,1491,8772,4839
12/31/202613,6321,7081,8162,3256
12/31/202512,9071,1351,6441,644N/A
9/30/202513,2677691,7592,000N/A
6/30/202513,6009892,0572,298N/A
3/31/202513,2921,5172,4332,674N/A
12/31/202412,4061,4352,5962,838N/A
9/30/202411,1181,9592,9542,968N/A
6/30/20249,0211,5212,8972,979N/A
3/31/20246,7301,0442,2472,277N/A
12/31/20234,6405271,9021,934N/A
9/30/20232,8093241,2801,300N/A
12/31/2022492-1453243N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: CHA's forecast earnings growth (20.4% per year) is above the savings rate (3.4%).

Earnings vs Market: CHA's earnings (20.4% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (16% per year).

High Growth Earnings: CHA's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: CHA's revenue (8.9% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (11.1% per year).

High Growth Revenue: CHA's revenue (8.9% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: CHA's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (16.7%).

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/05/03 20:01
End of Day Share Price 2026/05/01 00:00
Earnings2025/12/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Chagee Holdings Limited is covered by 11 analysts. 9 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Sijie LinChina International Capital Corporation Limited
Jiwei LiuCitic Securities Co., Ltd.
Ya JiangCitic Securities Co., Ltd.