Atour Lifestyle Holdings Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of ATAT when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

ATAT ($25.35) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] ($41.86)

Is ATAT undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ATAT when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ATAT ($25.35) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($41.86)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ATAT is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ATAT?

Key metric: As ATAT is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for ATAT. This is calculated by dividing ATAT's market cap by their current earnings.
What is ATAT's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	21.7x
Earnings	CN¥1.17b
Market Cap	CN¥25.71b

ATAT key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	3.5x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	15.5x
PEG Ratio	0.9x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ATAT's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ATAT vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	29.9x
HGV Hilton Grand Vacations	43x	120.1%	US$4.0b
TNL Travel + Leisure	9.5x	7.7%	US$3.6b
VAC Marriott Vacations Worldwide	15.8x	30.5%	US$3.2b
MMYT MakeMyTrip (India) Private	51.2x	7.6%	US$11.8b
ATAT Atour Lifestyle Holdings	21.7x	24.1%	US$3.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ATAT is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.7x) compared to the peer average (29.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ATAT's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Hospitality Industry?

2 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
GDHG Golden Heaven Group Holdings	3.5x	n/a	US$5.90m
THRS.F Agility Real Estate	1.7x	n/a	US$2.05m

No more companies available in this PE range

2 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ATAT is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.7x) compared to the US Hospitality industry average (24.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ATAT's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ATAT PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	21.7x
Fair PE Ratio	24.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ATAT is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ATAT forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	US$25.35	US$31.17 +22.9%	12.3%	US$38.63	US$23.60	n/a	12
Nov ’25	US$26.07	US$28.53 +9.4%	11.8%	US$35.00	US$24.00	n/a	12
Oct ’25	US$26.04	US$27.32 +4.9%	10.2%	US$32.36	US$23.29	n/a	12
Sep ’25	US$19.02	US$27.33 +43.7%	9.2%	US$32.00	US$23.03	n/a	11
Aug ’25	US$15.72	US$26.44 +68.2%	9.6%	US$30.92	US$21.96	n/a	11
Jul ’25	US$18.67	US$27.17 +45.5%	7.9%	US$30.95	US$23.45	n/a	11
Jun ’25	US$17.81	US$27.20 +52.7%	8.0%	US$30.99	US$23.49	n/a	11
May ’25	US$17.86	US$28.31 +58.5%	12.0%	US$35.00	US$23.63	n/a	11
Apr ’25	US$18.57	US$29.08 +56.6%	11.1%	US$34.57	US$23.67	n/a	10
Mar ’25	US$19.49	US$29.57 +51.7%	13.4%	US$38.21	US$23.92	n/a	11
Feb ’25	US$18.00	US$29.57 +64.3%	13.4%	US$38.21	US$23.92	n/a	11
Jan ’25	US$17.36	US$29.62 +70.6%	13.4%	US$38.28	US$23.96	n/a	11
Dec ’24	US$18.00	US$29.76 +65.4%	13.3%	US$38.44	US$24.06	n/a	11
Nov ’24	US$19.43	US$28.76 +48.0%	12.0%	US$35.87	US$23.81	US$26.07	11
Oct ’24	US$18.85	US$29.31 +55.5%	11.7%	US$36.12	US$23.98	US$26.04	10
Sep ’24	US$19.62	US$29.31 +49.4%	11.7%	US$36.12	US$23.98	US$19.02	10
Aug ’24	US$20.07	US$27.18 +35.4%	14.7%	US$34.02	US$21.32	US$15.72	9
Jul ’24	US$16.24	US$27.50 +69.3%	12.1%	US$31.95	US$21.75	US$18.67	6
Jun ’24	US$17.80	US$29.35 +64.9%	8.3%	US$33.02	US$26.02	US$17.81	5
May ’24	US$21.50	US$31.02 +44.3%	16.0%	US$40.02	US$25.78	US$17.86	5
Apr ’24	US$26.21	US$31.02 +18.3%	16.0%	US$40.02	US$25.78	US$18.57	5
Mar ’24	US$27.21	US$28.11 +3.3%	12.3%	US$32.98	US$25.23	US$19.49	3
Feb ’24	US$25.60	US$25.65 +0.2%	1.8%	US$26.10	US$25.20	US$18.00	2
Jan ’24	US$18.02	US$23.47 +30.3%	6.5%	US$25.00	US$21.95	US$17.36	2

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.