Target Past Earnings Performance
Past criteria checks 2/6
Target's earnings have been declining at an average annual rate of -11.1%, while the Consumer Retailing industry saw earnings growing at 15.7% annually. Revenues have been growing at an average rate of 0.5% per year. Target's return on equity is 21%, and it has net margins of 3.2%.
Key information
-11.07%
Earnings growth rate
-9.01%
EPS growth rate
| Consumer Retailing Industry Growth | 10.91% |
| Revenue growth rate | 0.52% |
| Return on equity | 21.04% |
| Net Margin | 3.24% |
| Next Earnings Update | 19 Aug 2026 |
Recent past performance updates
Recent updates
Seeking Alpha • Jul 28
Target's Renewal Mostly Baked-In - Overbought Rally Triggers Downgrade To Hold
Summary TGT's new management team delivers promising operational improvements and aggressive inventory resets, while raising the FY2026 guidance. The renewed growth prospects and the notable outperformance versus peers have directly contributed to the stock's upward re-rating and outsized YTD rally. Otherwise, the consensus now expects a rather ambitious FY2026 adj EPS of $8.36 (+10.4% YoY), with a steep selloff rather likely if TGT fails to deliver. The melt-up has also triggered the moderating dividend yields to 3.39%, the fair valuation, the overbought technicals, and the notable insider selling in H1'26. TGT is downgraded to Hold here, pending further execution/forward guidance clarity in the upcoming FQ2'26 earnings call. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Jul 20
TGT: Turnaround Execution And Reinvestment Plans Will Shape Balanced Outlook Forward
Analysts have lifted the Target fair value estimate from $96.52 to $133.84, citing increased confidence in the turnaround plans, a reduced discount rate, and updated assumptions for revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E multiples, informed by a series of higher Street price targets and supportive management meetings. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Target gives you a mixed but useful snapshot of how professional investors are framing the turnaround story, valuation reset, and execution risks.
Narrative Update • Jul 06
TGT: Higher Merchandising And Technology Spend Will Cap Future Earnings Power
Analysts have raised the Target fair value estimate to $103.70 from $95.31, reflecting higher Street price targets and growing confidence that the company’s reset, merchandising changes, and faster execution can support somewhat stronger revenue growth even as modeled profit margins and future P/E assumptions shift. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Target highlights a clear split between optimistic views on the turnaround and more cautious takes that focus on execution risks, tougher comparisons ahead, and how much of the recent share move already reflects improving fundamentals.
Narrative Update • Jun 22
TGT: Merchandising Reset And Guest Experience Overhaul Will Support Turnaround Trajectory
Target's updated fair value estimate has edged up by about $0.88 per share as analysts incorporate higher price targets and increased confidence in the company’s turnaround efforts, merchandising resets, and operational changes following recent management meetings and Q1 results. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Target points to a more constructive tone from many Wall Street firms, with several raising price targets following Q1 results and management meetings that highlighted merchandising resets, operational changes, and a clearer roadmap for the turnaround.Analysis Article • Jun 20
Target (TGT) Stock Could Be 17.5% Undervalued After Isaac Mizrahi Brand Push
Target (TGT) has become a closely watched retail stock after a series of moves to refresh its brand, including appointing Isaac Mizrahi as creative director at large and expanding key merchandising partnerships. See our latest analysis for Target. After a sharp run earlier in 2026, Target’s recent moves, including the Mizrahi appointment and new merchandising partnerships, come as the stock shows a 90-day share price return of 15.43% and a 1-year total shareholder return of 42.83%. The 5-year...Narrative Update • Jun 06
TGT: Merchandising Turnaround And Guest Experience Investments Will Support Future Earnings Power
Narrative Update on Target The analyst price target for Target has been adjusted slightly higher, with the updated fair value estimate moving by about $0.07 to $158.44, as analysts factor in recent Q1 beats, raised FY26 guidance, and early signs of progress from the company's ongoing transformation and merchandising efforts. Analyst Commentary Recent research is broadly constructive on Target, with many bullish analysts lifting price targets following the Q1 earnings beat, raised FY26 guidance, and early progress on the company’s transformation plans.Narrative Update • May 23
TGT: Merchandising And Guest Experience Turnaround Will Support Future Earnings Power
Narrative Update on Target The updated analyst price target for Target moves from about $154.82 to $158.51. This reflects analysts' responses to recent Q1 earnings beats, raised FY26 guidance, and early progress on the company’s merchandise and operational turnaround, even as they continue to flag risks around SG&A growth, tougher upcoming comparisons, and execution in key categories.Narrative Update • Apr 29
TGT: Heavy Self Funded Turnaround Spending Will Restrain Earnings Recovery Potential
The analyst price target for Target edges higher, reflecting a fair value shift from about $94.61 to $95.31, supported by Street research that cites updated earnings models, improving margin assumptions, and management's plans to restore merchandising strength and customer traffic. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Target reflects a wide range of views, with many firms raising price targets but differing on how much confidence to place in the company’s execution and earnings path.Narrative Update • Apr 14
TGT: Heavy Self Funded Investments Will Cap 2026 Earnings Recovery Potential
Target's analyst price target has been lifted slightly as analysts factor in updated Q4 results, 2026 guidance, and recent investor day messaging that outlines a clearer path to profitable growth. This outlook is supported by modest tweaks to fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E assumptions.Narrative Update • Mar 31
TGT: Merchandising And Guest Experience Investments Will Rebuild Earnings Power
Analysts have raised Target's fair value estimate to $154.82 from $140.00. This change reflects a series of higher price targets tied to updated earnings models, slightly stronger assumed revenue growth and margins, and a higher future P/E multiple following Q4 results, guidance, and investor day commentary.Narrative Update • Mar 16
TGT: Intensifying Competition And Traffic Pressure Will Restrain 2026 Earnings Multiple
Analysts have lifted the updated fair value estimate for Target shares to $94.61 from $66.69, reflecting higher long term profit margin and P/E assumptions supported by recent Q4 results, 2026 guidance, and multiple price target increases across the Street. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Target reflects a wide range of views, with many firms lifting price targets following Q4 results and 2026 guidance, while still flagging execution risks, traffic challenges, and ongoing competition from large peers.Narrative Update • Mar 02
TGT: Upcoming Earnings And Investor Day Will Rebuild Earnings Power
The analyst price target for Target has been raised from about $137 to $140. This change reflects analysts' updated views that slightly higher long-term revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E assumptions are reasonable in light of recent Street research, which has generally moved price targets higher while still noting mixed traffic and recovery expectations.Narrative Update • Feb 16
TGT: Reinvestment In Merchandising And AI Will Rebuild Earnings Power
The analyst fair value estimate for Target has been raised by about $10 to $136.65, as analysts factor in modestly higher revenue growth, slightly stronger profit margins, and a somewhat richer assumed future P/E multiple, while keeping a broadly similar discount rate. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Target reflects a mixed but improving tone, with several bullish analysts focusing on the potential for execution on the turnaround plan, valuation re-rating, and incremental investments in growth and efficiency.Narrative Update • Feb 02
TGT: Reinvestment Year And Sales Slump Will Depress Future Earnings Multiple
Analysts have increased their fair value estimate for Target by about $0.40, citing recent price target adjustments, mixed yet stabilizing reactions to Q3 results, and expectations that planned investments and margin efforts could support a lower future P/E assumption. Analyst Commentary Recent research coverage paints a mixed picture for Target, with several firms updating their models after Q3 results and management's updated investment plans.Narrative Update • Jan 19
TGT: Extended Turnaround Spending And Weak Sales Will Constrain Margin Recovery
Our updated Target price target edges lower, as fair value shifts to about $66 from $67. Analysts highlight mixed Q3 results, a long and investment heavy turnaround path, and differing views on earnings multiples and capital spending plans.Narrative Update • Jan 05
TGT: Heavier Reinvestment In Merchandising And AI Will Reset Earnings Base
Narrative Update on Target Analysts have trimmed their implied fair value for Target from about $130.77 to $126.14 as a group of firms reduced price targets, citing a more cautious earnings multiple, slightly softer growth and margin assumptions, and uncertainty around the scale of reinvestment needed for the turnaround plan. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Target paints a mixed but detailed picture, with most firms trimming price targets after Q3 while still highlighting key elements of the turnaround plan and capital allocation that matter for long term investors.Narrative Update • Dec 13
TGT: Reinvestment And Turnaround Spending Will Prolong Margin Pressure And Earnings Weakness
Analysts have reduced our Target fair value estimate to approximately $67 from $82, reflecting lower assumed revenue growth and margins, a slightly higher discount rate, and more conservative valuation multiples amid a tougher macro backdrop and increased reinvestment needs highlighted in recent research. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research has tilted more cautious on Target, with a series of price target cuts, largely Neutral or lower ratings, and an emphasis on execution risk in the company’s turnaround plan.Narrative Update • Nov 28
TGT: Near-Term Headwinds And Reinvestment Needs Will Shape Recovery Path Forward
Target's analyst price target was reduced from approximately $101 to $97 per share, as analysts cite increasing uncertainty around reinvestment needs and a more cautious outlook following recent quarterly results. Analyst Commentary The latest round of analyst commentary on Target offers a balanced mix of optimism and caution, as experts digest the company’s quarterly performance and forward-looking strategies.Narrative Update • Nov 14
TGT: Leadership Transition And Operational Efficiency Will Drive Business Recovery
Target’s analyst price target was revised down from $101.36 to $100.70 per share. Analysts point to continued sales headwinds and the need for significant reinvestment to improve long-term performance.Narrative Update • Oct 31
TGT: Margin Stability And Leadership Changes Will Shape Recovery Amid Competitive Pressures
Target’s analyst price target saw a modest decrease, slipping from $101.52 to $101.36. Analysts cited ongoing industry headwinds and the need for significant investment to address margin and revenue challenges.Narrative Update • Oct 17
Competition From Walmart And Amazon Will Impede Future Performance
Target's fair value estimate has been slightly lowered to $101.52 from $101.79. This reflects analysts' concerns about ongoing weak sales, required reinvestment, and continued pressure on margins, despite some stabilization in fundamentals.Narrative Update • Oct 03
Competition From Walmart And Amazon Will Impede Future Performance
The analyst price target for Target has been revised downward by nearly $2 to $101.79. Analysts cite soft sales trends and the need for substantial reinvestment in merchandising, technology, and store experience.Seeking Alpha • Apr 16
Target Is A Value Target
Summary Target presents a strong value investment opportunity - financial indicators appear strong. Despite potential risks like economic downturns and competitive pressures, TGT's current valuation at a forward PE ratio of 10.21 is compelling. TGT's dividends remain robust, with a yield of 4.83%, providing a cushion as the company aims for valuation multiple expansion. Long-term growth strategies include expanding the Target Plus Marketplace, enhancing digital revenue streams, and leveraging AI for customer experience and internal efficiencies. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaRevenue & Expenses Breakdown
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
How Target makes and spends money. Based on latest reported earnings, on an LTM basis.
Earnings and Revenue History
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | G+A Expenses | R&D Expenses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 May 26 | 106,377 | 3,450 | 22,102 | 0 |
| 31 Jan 26 | 104,780 | 3,705 | 21,714 | 0 |
| 01 Nov 25 | 105,242 | 3,763 | 21,721 | 0 |
| 02 Aug 25 | 105,640 | 3,928 | 21,835 | 0 |
| 03 May 25 | 105,881 | 4,185 | 21,838 | 0 |
| 01 Feb 25 | 106,566 | 4,091 | 21,796 | 0 |
| 02 Nov 24 | 107,570 | 4,370 | 21,761 | 0 |
| 03 Aug 24 | 107,300 | 4,487 | 21,558 | 0 |
| 04 May 24 | 106,621 | 4,130 | 21,387 | 0 |
| 03 Feb 24 | 107,412 | 4,138 | 21,269 | 0 |
| 28 Oct 23 | 106,888 | 3,632 | 21,013 | 0 |
| 29 Jul 23 | 108,008 | 3,373 | 20,987 | 0 |
| 29 Apr 23 | 109,272 | 2,721 | 20,798 | 0 |
| 28 Jan 23 | 109,120 | 2,780 | 20,469 | 0 |
| 29 Oct 22 | 108,721 | 3,448 | 20,419 | 0 |
| 30 Jul 22 | 107,855 | 4,224 | 20,069 | 0 |
| 30 Apr 22 | 106,978 | 5,858 | 19,921 | 0 |
| 29 Jan 22 | 106,005 | 6,946 | 19,636 | 0 |
| 30 Oct 21 | 103,348 | 6,782 | 19,559 | 0 |
| 31 Jul 21 | 100,328 | 6,308 | 19,353 | 0 |
| 01 May 21 | 98,143 | 6,181 | 18,985 | 0 |
| 30 Jan 21 | 93,561 | 4,368 | 18,546 | 0 |
| 31 Oct 20 | 88,621 | 3,821 | 17,592 | 0 |
| 01 Aug 20 | 84,653 | 3,513 | 17,081 | 0 |
| 02 May 20 | 80,100 | 2,761 | 16,539 | 0 |
| 01 Feb 20 | 78,112 | 3,269 | 16,163 | 0 |
| 02 Nov 19 | 77,690 | 3,234 | 16,033 | 0 |
| 03 Aug 19 | 76,847 | 3,144 | 15,831 | 0 |
| 04 May 19 | 76,202 | 3,005 | 15,715 | 0 |
| 02 Feb 19 | 75,356 | 2,930 | 15,606 | 0 |
| 03 Nov 18 | 75,362 | 3,220 | 15,681 | 0 |
| 04 Aug 18 | 74,415 | 3,079 | 15,468 | 0 |
| 05 May 18 | 73,272 | 2,950 | 15,175 | 0 |
| 03 Feb 18 | 72,714 | 2,908 | 14,990 | 0 |
| 28 Oct 17 | 70,421 | 2,642 | 14,162 | 0 |
| 29 Jul 17 | 69,988 | 2,775 | 13,774 | 0 |
| 29 Apr 17 | 69,522 | 2,730 | 13,513 | 0 |
| 28 Jan 17 | 70,271 | 2,666 | 14,086 | 0 |
| 29 Oct 16 | 70,431 | 3,268 | 13,650 | 0 |
| 30 Jul 16 | 71,603 | 3,136 | 13,952 | 0 |
| 30 Apr 16 | 72,862 | 3,284 | 14,215 | 0 |
| 30 Jan 16 | 73,785 | 3,321 | 14,473 | 0 |
| 31 Oct 15 | 73,909 | 2,860 | 14,476 | 0 |
| 01 Aug 15 | 73,550 | 2,911 | 14,489 | 0 |
Quality Earnings: TGT has high quality earnings.
Growing Profit Margin: TGT's current net profit margins (3.2%) are lower than last year (4%).
Free Cash Flow vs Earnings Analysis
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: TGT's earnings have declined by 11.1% per year over the past 5 years.
Accelerating Growth: TGT's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.
Earnings vs Industry: TGT had negative earnings growth (-17.5%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Consumer Retailing industry average (11.3%).
Return on Equity
High ROE: TGT's Return on Equity (21%) is considered high.
Return on Assets
Return on Capital Employed
Discover strong past performing companies
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/07/30 14:07 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/07/30 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/05/02 |
| Annual Earnings | 2026/01/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
| |
| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Target Corporation is covered by 57 analysts. 36 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Christopher Graja | Argus Research Company |
| Peter Benedict | Baird |
| Seth Sigman | Barclays |