Target Past Earnings Performance
Past criteria checks 2/6
Target's earnings have been declining at an average annual rate of -9.7%, while the Consumer Retailing industry saw earnings growing at 12.9% annually. Revenues have been growing at an average rate of 1.1% per year. Target's return on equity is 22.9%, and it has net margins of 3.5%.
Key information
-9.70%
Earnings growth rate
-7.55%
EPS growth rate
| Consumer Retailing Industry Growth | 10.91% |
| Revenue growth rate | 1.12% |
| Return on equity | 22.92% |
| Net Margin | 3.54% |
| Next Earnings Update | 20 May 2026 |
Recent past performance updates
Recent updates
Seeking Alpha • May 07
Target: Missing The Mark
Summary Target has rallied nearly 30% YTD, but its valuation appears stretched given flat comparable store sales and margin headwinds. TGT's category mix shift toward grocery pressures margins, while recent SG&A and capex increases further constrain operating leverage. Despite a likely Q1 sales beat, structural issues—share losses, underinvestment, and lack of traffic growth—limit prospects for multiple expansion. I see fair value at $100 (29% downside), as TGT trades at 16x earnings with little justification for a premium multiple. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Apr 29
TGT: Heavy Self Funded Turnaround Spending Will Restrain Earnings Recovery Potential
The analyst price target for Target edges higher, reflecting a fair value shift from about $94.61 to $95.31, supported by Street research that cites updated earnings models, improving margin assumptions, and management's plans to restore merchandising strength and customer traffic. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Target reflects a wide range of views, with many firms raising price targets but differing on how much confidence to place in the company’s execution and earnings path.Narrative Update • Apr 14
TGT: Heavy Self Funded Investments Will Cap 2026 Earnings Recovery Potential
Target's analyst price target has been lifted slightly as analysts factor in updated Q4 results, 2026 guidance, and recent investor day messaging that outlines a clearer path to profitable growth. This outlook is supported by modest tweaks to fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E assumptions.
Narrative Update • Mar 31
TGT: Merchandising And Guest Experience Investments Will Rebuild Earnings Power
Analysts have raised Target's fair value estimate to $154.82 from $140.00. This change reflects a series of higher price targets tied to updated earnings models, slightly stronger assumed revenue growth and margins, and a higher future P/E multiple following Q4 results, guidance, and investor day commentary.Narrative Update • Mar 16
TGT: Intensifying Competition And Traffic Pressure Will Restrain 2026 Earnings Multiple
Analysts have lifted the updated fair value estimate for Target shares to $94.61 from $66.69, reflecting higher long term profit margin and P/E assumptions supported by recent Q4 results, 2026 guidance, and multiple price target increases across the Street. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Target reflects a wide range of views, with many firms lifting price targets following Q4 results and 2026 guidance, while still flagging execution risks, traffic challenges, and ongoing competition from large peers.Narrative Update • Mar 02
TGT: Upcoming Earnings And Investor Day Will Rebuild Earnings Power
The analyst price target for Target has been raised from about $137 to $140. This change reflects analysts' updated views that slightly higher long-term revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E assumptions are reasonable in light of recent Street research, which has generally moved price targets higher while still noting mixed traffic and recovery expectations.Narrative Update • Feb 16
TGT: Reinvestment In Merchandising And AI Will Rebuild Earnings Power
The analyst fair value estimate for Target has been raised by about $10 to $136.65, as analysts factor in modestly higher revenue growth, slightly stronger profit margins, and a somewhat richer assumed future P/E multiple, while keeping a broadly similar discount rate. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Target reflects a mixed but improving tone, with several bullish analysts focusing on the potential for execution on the turnaround plan, valuation re-rating, and incremental investments in growth and efficiency.Narrative Update • Feb 02
TGT: Reinvestment Year And Sales Slump Will Depress Future Earnings Multiple
Analysts have increased their fair value estimate for Target by about $0.40, citing recent price target adjustments, mixed yet stabilizing reactions to Q3 results, and expectations that planned investments and margin efforts could support a lower future P/E assumption. Analyst Commentary Recent research coverage paints a mixed picture for Target, with several firms updating their models after Q3 results and management's updated investment plans.Narrative Update • Jan 19
TGT: Extended Turnaround Spending And Weak Sales Will Constrain Margin Recovery
Our updated Target price target edges lower, as fair value shifts to about $66 from $67. Analysts highlight mixed Q3 results, a long and investment heavy turnaround path, and differing views on earnings multiples and capital spending plans.Narrative Update • Jan 05
TGT: Heavier Reinvestment In Merchandising And AI Will Reset Earnings Base
Narrative Update on Target Analysts have trimmed their implied fair value for Target from about $130.77 to $126.14 as a group of firms reduced price targets, citing a more cautious earnings multiple, slightly softer growth and margin assumptions, and uncertainty around the scale of reinvestment needed for the turnaround plan. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Target paints a mixed but detailed picture, with most firms trimming price targets after Q3 while still highlighting key elements of the turnaround plan and capital allocation that matter for long term investors.Narrative Update • Dec 13
TGT: Reinvestment And Turnaround Spending Will Prolong Margin Pressure And Earnings Weakness
Analysts have reduced our Target fair value estimate to approximately $67 from $82, reflecting lower assumed revenue growth and margins, a slightly higher discount rate, and more conservative valuation multiples amid a tougher macro backdrop and increased reinvestment needs highlighted in recent research. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research has tilted more cautious on Target, with a series of price target cuts, largely Neutral or lower ratings, and an emphasis on execution risk in the company’s turnaround plan.
Narrative Update • Nov 28
TGT: Near-Term Headwinds And Reinvestment Needs Will Shape Recovery Path Forward
Target's analyst price target was reduced from approximately $101 to $97 per share, as analysts cite increasing uncertainty around reinvestment needs and a more cautious outlook following recent quarterly results. Analyst Commentary The latest round of analyst commentary on Target offers a balanced mix of optimism and caution, as experts digest the company’s quarterly performance and forward-looking strategies.Narrative Update • Nov 14
TGT: Leadership Transition And Operational Efficiency Will Drive Business Recovery
Target’s analyst price target was revised down from $101.36 to $100.70 per share. Analysts point to continued sales headwinds and the need for significant reinvestment to improve long-term performance.Narrative Update • Oct 31
TGT: Margin Stability And Leadership Changes Will Shape Recovery Amid Competitive Pressures
Target’s analyst price target saw a modest decrease, slipping from $101.52 to $101.36. Analysts cited ongoing industry headwinds and the need for significant investment to address margin and revenue challenges.Narrative Update • Oct 17
Competition From Walmart And Amazon Will Impede Future Performance
Target's fair value estimate has been slightly lowered to $101.52 from $101.79. This reflects analysts' concerns about ongoing weak sales, required reinvestment, and continued pressure on margins, despite some stabilization in fundamentals.Narrative Update • Oct 03
Competition From Walmart And Amazon Will Impede Future Performance
The analyst price target for Target has been revised downward by nearly $2 to $101.79. Analysts cite soft sales trends and the need for substantial reinvestment in merchandising, technology, and store experience.Analysis Article • Jul 30
Returns On Capital At Target (NYSE:TGT) Have Hit The Brakes
What trends should we look for it we want to identify stocks that can multiply in value over the long term? Amongst...Analysis Article • Jul 18
Is Target Corporation (NYSE:TGT) Trading At A 39% Discount?
Key Insights Target's estimated fair value is US$171 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Target is estimated to...Analysis Article • Jul 06
At US$104, Is Target Corporation (NYSE:TGT) Worth Looking At Closely?
Target Corporation ( NYSE:TGT ) saw a double-digit share price rise of over 10% in the past couple of months on the...Seeking Alpha • Apr 16
Target Is A Value Target
Summary Target presents a strong value investment opportunity - financial indicators appear strong. Despite potential risks like economic downturns and competitive pressures, TGT's current valuation at a forward PE ratio of 10.21 is compelling. TGT's dividends remain robust, with a yield of 4.83%, providing a cushion as the company aims for valuation multiple expansion. Long-term growth strategies include expanding the Target Plus Marketplace, enhancing digital revenue streams, and leveraging AI for customer experience and internal efficiencies. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Apr 07
Target: A Dicey Outlook, But Valuations And Yield Offer Some Comfort
Summary Target Corporation's stock has significantly underperformed in Q1 2025, with losses over double the prime equity benchmark and 6x worse than other retailers. We touch upon on how the recent tariff developments may potentially impact Target, which is also going to see a step-up in CAPEX, and potentially underwhelming dividend growth. TGT's charts appear to look overextended, while its cheap valuations and attractive yield should bring some support. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Mar 25
Target Is A Buy For Value-Oriented Investors
Summary Target offers a compelling valuation with a forward dividend yield of 4.31%, higher than the 10-Year Treasury Note, and a strong dividend growth history. The macroeconomic environment is favorable, with steady employment, decreasing inflation, and high CEO confidence, which should boost consumer spending at Target. Target plans to increase revenue by $15B over five years through new stores, brand partnerships, and digital improvements, aiming for significant earnings growth. Despite low consumer confidence, I believe lower prices and interest rates will drive consumers to Target, making it a smart buy for value-oriented investors. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Mar 02
Target's Dividend, A Dream Or A Trap? Earnings Preview
Summary Target's Q4 earnings report will be crucial, with a focus on FY2025 guidance and potential for beating estimates due to strong holiday sales. Despite attractive valuation multiples and a 3.6% dividend yield, Target's growth prospects remain uncertain, warranting a cautious approach. Target's e-commerce and ad businesses lag behind competitors like Amazon and Walmart, impacting overall performance and investor sentiment. Income-oriented investors should monitor Target for potential yield increases if the stock drops another 10%-15%, but staying on the sidelines is advised for now. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jan 27
Target: I'm Waiting For One More Pull Back Before Buying
Summary Target faces macro and cyclical headwinds, with consumer discretionary spending and macro sentiment likely driving the stock lower after recent downward guidance and softening sales. I hesitate to buy TGT unless it becomes unreasonably cheap or shows signs of growth and margin expansion, preferring a 10-15% price drop. Despite long-term growth investments and improvements in logistics and omnichannel offerings, short-term risks and weak discretionary sales make me rate TGT a hold. Target's 3.3% dividend yield is attractive for income-seeking investors, but I seek at least a 10% annual total return before re-initiating a position. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Dec 30
Despite Accelerating Growth In Some Areas, I'm Bearish On Target
Summary Target's innovative product offerings and private-label success are overshadowed by declining discretionary sales due to increased competition and economic challenges. Recent performance shows a 0.3% sales rise, with digital growth up 11%, but in-store sales dropped 1.9%, highlighting industry-wide struggles. Weak consumer sentiment and economic uncertainty are expected to result in continued revenue weakness, particularly in discretionary categories like home furnishings and apparel. TGT's weak holiday season guidance, with flat sales growth and adjusted EPS of $1.85 to $2.45, reflects ongoing margin pressures and softness in key areas. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Dec 23
Target's Promotional Strategies Backfired - Tariffs Will Add More Pressure
Summary I am downgrading Target from a "buy" to a "hold" and reducing the price target by 21% to $147 due to disappointing Q3 performance and muted Q4 guidance. Target's Q3 saw deceleration in comparable sales growth and deteriorating margins due to higher inventory levels and promotional pressures, leading to underperformance against the S&P 500. Despite strong digital sales growth, Target's overall revenue growth was strained by declining average selling prices and potential market share losses to competitors like Walmart and Costco. The potential impact of President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on imports also adds uncertainty, likely raising consumer prices and dampening demand, further pressuring Target's top and bottom lines. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaRevenue & Expenses Breakdown
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
How Target makes and spends money. Based on latest reported earnings, on an LTM basis.
Earnings and Revenue History
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | G+A Expenses | R&D Expenses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jan 26 | 104,780 | 3,705 | 21,714 | 0 |
| 01 Nov 25 | 105,242 | 3,763 | 21,721 | 0 |
| 02 Aug 25 | 105,640 | 3,928 | 21,242 | 0 |
| 03 May 25 | 105,881 | 4,185 | 21,245 | 0 |
| 01 Feb 25 | 106,566 | 4,091 | 21,796 | 0 |
| 02 Nov 24 | 107,570 | 4,370 | 21,761 | 0 |
| 03 Aug 24 | 107,300 | 4,487 | 21,558 | 0 |
| 04 May 24 | 106,621 | 4,130 | 21,387 | 0 |
| 03 Feb 24 | 107,412 | 4,138 | 21,269 | 0 |
| 28 Oct 23 | 106,888 | 3,632 | 21,013 | 0 |
| 29 Jul 23 | 108,008 | 3,373 | 20,987 | 0 |
| 29 Apr 23 | 109,272 | 2,721 | 20,798 | 0 |
| 28 Jan 23 | 109,120 | 2,780 | 20,469 | 0 |
| 29 Oct 22 | 108,721 | 3,448 | 20,419 | 0 |
| 30 Jul 22 | 107,855 | 4,224 | 20,069 | 0 |
| 30 Apr 22 | 106,978 | 5,858 | 19,921 | 0 |
| 29 Jan 22 | 106,005 | 6,946 | 19,636 | 0 |
| 30 Oct 21 | 103,348 | 6,782 | 19,559 | 0 |
| 31 Jul 21 | 100,328 | 6,308 | 19,353 | 0 |
| 01 May 21 | 98,143 | 6,181 | 18,985 | 0 |
| 30 Jan 21 | 93,561 | 4,368 | 18,546 | 0 |
| 31 Oct 20 | 88,621 | 3,821 | 17,592 | 0 |
| 01 Aug 20 | 84,653 | 3,513 | 17,081 | 0 |
| 02 May 20 | 80,100 | 2,761 | 16,539 | 0 |
| 01 Feb 20 | 78,112 | 3,269 | 16,163 | 0 |
| 02 Nov 19 | 77,690 | 3,234 | 16,033 | 0 |
| 03 Aug 19 | 76,847 | 3,144 | 15,831 | 0 |
| 04 May 19 | 76,202 | 3,005 | 15,715 | 0 |
| 02 Feb 19 | 75,356 | 2,930 | 15,606 | 0 |
| 03 Nov 18 | 75,362 | 3,220 | 15,681 | 0 |
| 04 Aug 18 | 74,415 | 3,079 | 15,468 | 0 |
| 05 May 18 | 73,272 | 2,950 | 15,175 | 0 |
| 03 Feb 18 | 72,714 | 2,908 | 14,990 | 0 |
| 28 Oct 17 | 70,421 | 2,642 | 14,162 | 0 |
| 29 Jul 17 | 69,988 | 2,775 | 13,774 | 0 |
| 29 Apr 17 | 69,522 | 2,730 | 13,513 | 0 |
| 28 Jan 17 | 70,271 | 2,666 | 14,086 | 0 |
| 29 Oct 16 | 70,431 | 3,268 | 13,650 | 0 |
| 30 Jul 16 | 71,603 | 3,136 | 13,952 | 0 |
| 30 Apr 16 | 72,862 | 3,284 | 14,215 | 0 |
| 30 Jan 16 | 73,785 | 3,321 | 14,473 | 0 |
| 31 Oct 15 | 73,909 | 2,860 | 14,476 | 0 |
| 01 Aug 15 | 73,550 | 2,911 | 14,489 | 0 |
Quality Earnings: TGT has high quality earnings.
Growing Profit Margin: TGT's current net profit margins (3.5%) are lower than last year (3.8%).
Free Cash Flow vs Earnings Analysis
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: TGT's earnings have declined by 9.7% per year over the past 5 years.
Accelerating Growth: TGT's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.
Earnings vs Industry: TGT had negative earnings growth (-9.5%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Consumer Retailing industry average (10.4%).
Return on Equity
High ROE: TGT's Return on Equity (22.9%) is considered high.
Return on Assets
Return on Capital Employed
Discover strong past performing companies
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/07 17:58 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/07 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/01/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2026/01/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Target Corporation is covered by 57 analysts. 34 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Christopher Graja | Argus Research Company |
| Peter Benedict | Baird |
| Seth Sigman | Barclays |