Target Corporation (NYSE:TGT) Just Reported Yearly Earnings: Have Analysts Changed Their Mind On The Stock?

Last week, you might have seen that Target Corporation (NYSE:TGT) released its annual result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 6.0% to US$117 in the past week. Target reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of US$107b and statutory earnings per share of US$8.86, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for Target

Following last week's earnings report, Target's 31 analysts are forecasting 2026 revenues to be US$108.2b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory per-share earnings are expected to be US$9.15, roughly flat on the last 12 months. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$109.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$9.29 in 2026. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$138, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Target at US$165 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$100.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Target's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 1.5% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 5.2% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.7% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Target.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Target's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$138, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Target analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Target is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.