Costco Wholesale Past Earnings Performance
Past criteria checks 6/6
Costco Wholesale has been growing earnings at an average annual rate of 11.7%, while the Consumer Retailing industry saw earnings growing at 15.7% annually. Revenues have been growing at an average rate of 7.8% per year. Costco Wholesale's return on equity is 26.4%, and it has net margins of 3%.
Key information
11.75%
Earnings growth rate
11.71%
EPS growth rate
| Consumer Retailing Industry Growth | 10.91% |
| Revenue growth rate | 7.81% |
| Return on equity | 26.38% |
| Net Margin | 3.01% |
| Next Earnings Update | 24 Sep 2026 |
Recent past performance updates
Recent updates
Seeking Alpha • 56m
Costco: A Small June Swoon, But Sales Still Solid, Tariffs In Focus
Summary Costco Wholesale Corporation reported softer June comp-store sales, yet overall growth and profit trends remain robust, with e-commerce up 20.9% YoY. I maintain a Hold rating on COST, citing a premium valuation near historical averages and technicals suggesting sideways price action. Membership metrics are strong, with 92.2% renewal in the US/Canada and executive memberships driving 75% of sales penetration. EPS is projected to grow steadily, with FY26 near $21 and potential for $25 by FY28, but risks include consumer spending, competition, and macro headwinds. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Jul 02
COST: Membership Model And Q3 Execution Will Support Premium Multiple
Analysts have nudged the Costco Wholesale fair value estimate higher to $1,082.94 from $1,047.90, reflecting updated assumptions around slightly firmer profit margins, a modestly lower future P/E of about 50.7, and Street research that highlights the company's resilient membership model and balanced risk/reward at current levels. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Costco Wholesale presents a mix of confidence in the business model and caution around valuation, with price targets spread across a wide range and ratings spanning Buy, Hold, Neutral, and Sell.
Narrative Update • Jun 18
COST: Slowing Membership And Traffic Trends Will Eventually Pressure Premium P E Multiple
Analysts have modestly lifted the consolidated price target for Costco Wholesale toward the upper end of a wide $781 to $1,275 range, citing the company's membership-backed warehouse model, stable renewal rates, and consistent mid-single digit comparable sales as key supports for the updated valuation framework. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Costco Wholesale points to a mixed backdrop, with many firms lifting price targets while still highlighting valuation tension, membership trends, and traffic as key issues to watch.Analysis Article • Jun 16
Costco Wholesale (COST) Stock Could Be 35% Overvalued After Strong May Sales
Costco Wholesale (COST) is back in focus after reporting May sales figures and year to date results that highlight double digit growth in net sales, strong digitally enabled demand, and record gasoline volumes. See our latest analysis for Costco Wholesale. Despite the strong May sales update, Costco Wholesale’s recent share price has cooled, with the 30 day share price return down 6.63%, even as the year to date share price return sits at 14.62% and the 5 year total shareholder return is...Narrative Update • Jun 04
COST: Slowing Membership Trends Will Eventually Pressure Premium P E Multiple
Costco Wholesale's analyst fair value estimate has been revised from $822.59 to $852.63 as analysts factor in a slightly higher assumed discount rate, modestly higher modeled revenue growth, and a marginally lower profit margin, along with a higher future P/E in response to a series of recent price target increases that highlight the company's membership model, traffic trends, and perceived moat in warehouse retailing. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Costco clusters around a common theme: the core membership and warehouse model is widely viewed as resilient, but opinions are split on how much investors should pay for that stability and growth profile.
Narrative Update • Apr 29
COST: Membership Strength And Traffic Trends Will Support Premium Future P/E
Analysts have nudged the Costco Wholesale fair value estimate higher to reflect a modestly higher blended Street price target in the $975 to $1,315 range, citing recent target increases after Q2 earnings, resilient membership income, and steady traffic trends. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research points to a broadly constructive tone around Costco, with several bullish analysts lifting price targets and highlighting consistent execution following the latest earnings prints.Narrative Update • Apr 15
COST: Membership Income Strength And Steady Traffic Will Sustain Premium P E
Analysts have raised their Costco Wholesale price targets by amounts ranging from $1 to $65, reflecting updated views on its execution, membership trends, and price-to-earnings assumptions. Together, these factors translate into a slightly refined fair value estimate and margin outlook in the latest model.Narrative Update • Mar 31
COST: Membership Engine And Premium P E Will Support Defensive Upside
Analyst fair value for Costco Wholesale has been revised higher from $1,205 to about $1,311 per share, as analysts factor in modestly stronger revenue growth assumptions, a slightly lower discount rate, a richer future P/E multiple near 57x, and recent Street research that continues to highlight resilient execution despite concerns around competing products. Analyst Commentary Recent research around Costco continues to frame the retailer as a high quality operator with a premium valuation, while also highlighting some areas of investor caution.Narrative Update • Mar 17
COST: Membership Headwinds And Rich P E Will Shape Cautious Outlook
Costco Wholesale's intrinsic value estimate has been lifted by about $23 to $822.59 per share as analysts factor in higher long term price targets, supported by consistent same store sales execution, resilient traffic and ticket trends, recurring membership income growth, and views that the warehouse model remains a core holding for many portfolios despite a premium P/E multiple and membership growth headwinds flagged in some recent research. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Costco Wholesale centers on strong operational execution and consistent earnings beats, alongside ongoing debate about how much of that quality is already reflected in the share price.Narrative Update • Mar 03
COST: Membership Strength And Pricing Power Will Support Defensive Upside Through 2026
Analysts have nudged their Costco Wholesale price target higher to $1,205, a modest revision that reflects slightly firmer assumptions on revenue growth and a small adjustment to the discount rate, while still factoring in a similar long term profit profile and P/E outlook to previous estimates. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Costco points to generally constructive sentiment, with several bullish analysts lifting price targets and reiterating positive views on the company’s positioning and execution.Narrative Update • Feb 17
COST: Value Focus And Membership Model Will Balance Food Disinflation And Competition
Analysts have nudged their Costco Wholesale fair value estimate higher to about $1,048 from roughly $1,030, pointing to slightly stronger assumptions for revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E multiples, partially tempered by a modestly higher discount rate and fresh price target raises across the Street. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Costco Wholesale has centered on fresh price target moves and updated views on how the membership model could hold up through changing consumer trends and spending patterns.Narrative Update • Feb 03
COST: Membership Model And Value Focus Will Support Defensive Upside Through 2026
Analysts maintained their fair value estimate for Costco Wholesale at $1,205, while adjusting their assumptions to reflect slightly higher revenue growth, modestly improved profit margins, and a slightly lower future P/E. These changes reflect renewed coverage and mixed but improving expectations for food retailers as discussed in recent Street research.Narrative Update • Jan 20
COST: Value Focus And SNAP Insulation Will Support Steady Future Membership Gains
Analysts have trimmed their Costco Wholesale fair value estimate to about $1,030 from roughly $1,056. They cite slightly more conservative assumptions on revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E multiples, while also noting relative insulation from SNAP headwinds and potential consumer tailwinds discussed in recent retail sector research.Analysis Article • Jan 05
Is There Now An Opportunity In Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ:COST)?
Today we're going to take a look at the well-established Costco Wholesale Corporation ( NASDAQ:COST ). The company's...Narrative Update • Jan 05
COST: SNAP Headwinds And Tariff Relief Will Shape Fairly Balanced Outlook
Narrative Update Analysts have adjusted their Costco Wholesale fair value estimate from about $834.56 to $799.51. A higher discount rate and slightly lower assumed profit margin offset stronger modeled revenue growth.Narrative Update • Dec 15
COST: Membership Model And Traffic Strength Will Support Defensive Upside
Analysts have modestly reduced their fair value estimate for Costco Wholesale to $1,205 from $1,225, reflecting slightly lower growth and margin assumptions and a gradual normalization of the stock's previously elevated valuation multiple following recent Street target trims. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts acknowledge that near term macro headwinds, including reduced Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits, are pressuring sector level sales, particularly in staples and grocery categories.Narrative Update • Dec 01
COST: Solid Membership Retention And Defensive Edge Will Support Future Share Gains
Analysts have modestly lowered their average price target for Costco Wholesale, now expecting shares to reach around $1,020. Recent updates reflect both the company's continued strong performance as well as persistent concerns over its premium valuation and mixed quarterly results.Narrative Update • Nov 17
COST: Strong Sales And Membership Model Will Drive Market Share Gains
Costco Wholesale’s analyst price targets have been reduced by approximately $30 to $70 per share following its fiscal Q4 report. Analysts cite a mixed performance, ongoing industry headwinds, and the company’s premium valuation as key factors in their updated outlooks.Narrative Update • Nov 02
COST: Market Share Gains Will Continue Driven By High Member Renewal Rates
Costco Wholesale's analyst price target has been reduced modestly, with the average fair value estimate moving down by about $1.65 to $1,059.55. Analysts cite a combination of slightly slower margin growth and a continued premium valuation backdrop as reasons for the adjustment.Narrative Update • Oct 03
Warehouse, E-Commerce, And International Expansion Will Support Future Success
Costco’s analyst price target has been revised downward to $1,061 from $1,072. Analysts cite mixed quarterly results, persistent strength in sales and margin improvements, but continued caution given the stock’s elevated valuation multiples.Analysis Article • Sep 29
Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ:COST) Yearly Results: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year
Last week, you might have seen that Costco Wholesale Corporation ( NASDAQ:COST ) released its yearly result to the...Narrative Update • Sep 04
Warehouse, E-Commerce, And International Expansion Will Support Future Success
Despite continued strong comparable sales growth and solid execution, analysts cite concerns about Costco’s elevated valuation and limited upside at current prices, resulting in an unchanged consensus price target of $1073. Analyst Commentary Solid U.S. comparable sales growth at 5.5% in June, maintaining strength in Food, Sundries, and Fresh Foods, with mid-single-digit gains in nonfood categories.Analysis Article • Jul 25
Does Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ:COST) Deserve A Spot On Your Watchlist?
For beginners, it can seem like a good idea (and an exciting prospect) to buy a company that tells a good story to...Analysis Article • Jul 14
We Like Costco Wholesale's (NASDAQ:COST) Returns And Here's How They're Trending
If you're not sure where to start when looking for the next multi-bagger, there are a few key trends you should keep an...Seeking Alpha • Apr 28
Costco: Incredible Value For Members, A Premium For Investors
Summary Costco's current valuation at 54x FY25 EPS is significantly above its historical average, making it an unattractive investment despite its strong fundamentals and growth prospects. The retail giant's business model ensures consistent growth, but its share price appreciation has outpaced its true value creation. History shows more favorable entry points between 28x and 39x EPS. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Mar 24
Costco: Profitable Like Heck, Valuation Like Shrek (Ugly)
Summary Costco is highly reliable due to its wide moats, loyal customer base, and predictable, cash-generative subscription model with pricing power. Companies with clearer futures, like Costco, deserve a premium valuation, similar to a bond proxy, ensuring ever-increasing cash flow. Despite Costco's strong fundamentals, its current high premium limits upside potential and annual returns, posing downside risks during market corrections. The most obvious reason to avoid Costco now is its sky-high premium, which sacrifices higher returns for safety. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Mar 18
Costco's Selloff Is Finally Here - Is It A Buy Now?
Summary COST's much needed correction is finally here, albeit not enough, given the stock's still expensive valuations and pulled forward upside potential. While the stock has bounced at the 200 DMAs, it remains to be seen how the retailer may perform in the near-term, given the higher recessionary risks. This is especially since 27.6% of its FY2024 revenues are based in Canada/ International, worsened by the potential tariff impacts on its supply chain. While COST may have reported robust February 2025 comparable sales growth despite the tougher YoY comparisons, we believe that there may be more macro uncertainties ahead. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Mar 10
Costco: Overvalued After Strong Bull Run (Rating Downgrade)
Summary COST shares have risen by 74% since my Buy rating on the stock was published in late 2023. The company's business continues to perform well, and the company is gaining market share relative to competitors. The stock now trades at a very high valuation relative to peers and its own historical norms. I do not view the current valuation as attractive. I am downgrading the stock to Sell. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Mar 04
Costco's Q2 Preview: Investors Debate On Stock-Split, Special Dividend, And Fee Hike
Summary Costco's unique business model relies on membership fees, conservative management, and minimal debt, leading to strong cash flows and potential special dividends. Q2 earnings are expected to show revenue growth of 8% and EPS growth above 10%, with a focus on membership retention post-fee hike. In this article, we will go over the characteristics of this company and understand whether the stock presents an opportunity or not. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Feb 23
Costco: Risks With The Momentum Trade Into Q2 Earnings
Summary The momentum trade has shifted to Walmart and Costco, with Costco's high P/E ratio and PEG ratio indicating a richly priced stock. Despite its premium valuation, Costco's strong earnings growth, robust traffic, and positive membership trends support a hold rating. Key risks include a cautious consumer, supply chain issues, inflation, and competition, but Costco's buy-in-bulk value proposition remains attractive. The technical analysis shows a bullish uptrend, suggesting buying in the mid-$950s offers a favorable risk/reward entry point. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jan 22
Costco's Price Looks Similar To Walmart In 1999
Summary Costco's stock is overpriced, with valuation metrics stretched, suggesting subpar returns over the next 5–10 years despite its strong business model and growth potential. The subscription model is a key strength, contributing significantly to Costco's net income, but revenue growth has slowed, making current valuations unsustainable. Comparisons to Walmart in the late '90s show potential for long-term price stagnation due to P/E ratio compression, similar to post-dotcom bubble trends. Consider diversifying with Amazon and Kroger, which offer better valuations and growth prospects, providing a balanced mix of growth and recession resilience. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jan 09
Costco: If It Ain't Broke, Why Fix It? Consistency Is Key
Summary Costco Wholesale Corporation's consistent performance and strong financials, including impressive ROA and ROE, make it a reliable long-term investment despite its high P/E ratio. The company's competitive edge and clean balance sheet, with substantial cash reserves and manageable debt, reinforce its strong market position. Recent developments show robust comparable sales growth, particularly in the U.S., and increasing popularity among younger demographics, indicating sustained demand. While Costco's valuation appears high, its predictable operations and potential for aggressive expansion, especially in China, justify a watchful approach toward COST stock for a 10%-20% pullback. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Dec 09
As Costco's Q1 Earnings Approach, Let's Understand The Mindset Of Its Shareholders
Summary Costco is a beloved and much-discussed stock with loyal customers and shareholders. Despite reaching all-time highs and nearing $1,000 per share, Costco has a 2.84 rating from SA analysts. The stock's rating may worsen, potentially leading to an overall sell recommendation; concerns are rising about Costco's valuation and future performance amidst its soaring stock price. We make an educated guess on Costco's upcoming Q1 earnings report and try to understand why few investors are selling out of their positions. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Nov 11
Costco Is A Great Place To Shop, But Not To Invest
Summary Costco's share price is overvalued despite strong financial performance, with a P/E ratio over 45x and limited long-term growth potential. Q4 highlights include $78.2 billion in net sales, 5.4% comparable sales growth, and a 9% increase in net income. Membership fees are a key income source, with a planned fee increase expected to boost net income by 20%. Limited international expansion and modest shareholder returns of around 2% make Costco a less competitive long-term investment. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Oct 29
Costco: Still Cheap With Room For Warehouse Growth
Summary Costco is still a growth story, with plans to open 25-30 new warehouses annually, focusing on international expansion. Despite a high valuation, Costco's potential for long-term growth justifies a premium valuation supported by improving metrics like ROIC, ROE, and ROCE. The international market, particularly China, presents significant opportunities and some challenges. Early successes and strategic positioning suggest growth might be successful. While I believe in the direction of the business, the stock is currently a hold due to valuation risks. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Oct 18
Costco Is Running Out Of Gold, Here's What That Means For The Wholesaler
Summary Costco's gold bars are selling out rapidly, highlighting strong demand and its ability to manage volatile assets and generate profit from rising gold prices. Despite high valuations, Costco's solid fundamentals, expanding global presence, and rising profit margins make it a buy recommendation for equity portfolios. COST's business model thrives in poor economies, offering bulk savings and low-margin staples, positioning it as a "safe haven" stock during recessions. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaRevenue & Expenses Breakdown
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
How Costco Wholesale makes and spends money. Based on latest reported earnings, on an LTM basis.
Earnings and Revenue History
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | G+A Expenses | R&D Expenses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 May 26 | 293,587 | 8,838 | 26,577 | 0 |
| 15 Feb 26 | 286,265 | 8,549 | 26,063 | 0 |
| 23 Nov 25 | 280,391 | 8,302 | 25,454 | 0 |
| 31 Aug 25 | 275,235 | 8,099 | 24,966 | 0 |
| 11 May 25 | 268,776 | 7,843 | 24,255 | 0 |
| 16 Feb 25 | 264,086 | 7,621 | 23,721 | 0 |
| 24 Nov 24 | 258,805 | 7,576 | 23,298 | 0 |
| 01 Sep 24 | 254,453 | 7,367 | 22,810 | 0 |
| 12 May 24 | 253,695 | 7,173 | 22,682 | 0 |
| 18 Feb 24 | 248,828 | 6,794 | 22,331 | 0 |
| 26 Nov 23 | 245,652 | 6,517 | 22,031 | 0 |
| 03 Sep 23 | 242,290 | 6,292 | 21,590 | 0 |
| 07 May 23 | 235,442 | 6,000 | 20,569 | 0 |
| 12 Feb 23 | 234,390 | 6,051 | 20,225 | 0 |
| 20 Nov 22 | 231,028 | 5,884 | 19,978 | 0 |
| 28 Aug 22 | 226,954 | 5,844 | 19,661 | 0 |
| 08 May 22 | 217,538 | 5,646 | 18,895 | 0 |
| 13 Feb 22 | 210,219 | 5,513 | 18,644 | 0 |
| 21 Nov 21 | 203,084 | 5,165 | 18,302 | 0 |
| 29 Aug 21 | 195,929 | 5,007 | 18,453 | 0 |
| 09 May 21 | 186,637 | 4,726 | 17,923 | 0 |
| 14 Feb 21 | 178,626 | 4,344 | 17,562 | 0 |
| 22 Nov 20 | 172,929 | 4,324 | 16,961 | 0 |
| 30 Aug 20 | 166,761 | 4,002 | 16,387 | 0 |
| 10 May 20 | 160,876 | 3,710 | 16,059 | 0 |
| 16 Feb 20 | 158,350 | 3,778 | 15,606 | 0 |
| 24 Nov 19 | 154,674 | 3,736 | 15,329 | 0 |
| 01 Sep 19 | 152,703 | 3,659 | 15,080 | 0 |
| 12 May 19 | 149,616 | 3,605 | 14,649 | 0 |
| 17 Feb 19 | 147,237 | 3,449 | 14,427 | 0 |
| 25 Nov 18 | 144,836 | 3,261 | 14,200 | 0 |
| 02 Sep 18 | 141,576 | 3,134 | 13,944 | 0 |
| 13 May 18 | 139,465 | 3,010 | 13,803 | 0 |
| 18 Feb 18 | 135,964 | 2,960 | 13,562 | 0 |
| 26 Nov 17 | 132,735 | 2,774 | 13,311 | 0 |
| 03 Sep 17 | 129,025 | 2,679 | 13,032 | 0 |
| 07 May 17 | 123,285 | 2,539 | 12,599 | 0 |
| 12 Feb 17 | 121,194 | 2,384 | 12,426 | 0 |
| 20 Nov 16 | 119,598 | 2,415 | 12,276 | 0 |
| 28 Aug 16 | 118,719 | 2,350 | 12,146 | 0 |
| 08 May 16 | 117,937 | 2,338 | 11,952 | 0 |
| 14 Feb 16 | 117,269 | 2,309 | 11,796 | 0 |
| 22 Nov 15 | 116,553 | 2,361 | 11,631 | 0 |
| 30 Aug 15 | 116,199 | 2,377 | 11,510 | 0 |
Quality Earnings: COST has high quality earnings.
Growing Profit Margin: COST's current net profit margins (3%) are higher than last year (2.9%).
Free Cash Flow vs Earnings Analysis
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: COST's earnings have grown by 11.7% per year over the past 5 years.
Accelerating Growth: COST's earnings growth over the past year (12.7%) exceeds its 5-year average (11.7% per year).
Earnings vs Industry: COST earnings growth over the past year (12.7%) exceeded the Consumer Retailing industry 12.5%.
Return on Equity
High ROE: COST's Return on Equity (26.4%) is considered high.
Return on Assets
Return on Capital Employed
Discover strong past performing companies
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/07/08 09:42 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/07/08 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/05/10 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/08/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
| |
| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
|
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
| |
| Ownership | 10 years |
| |
| Management | 10 years |
| |
| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Costco Wholesale Corporation is covered by 64 analysts. 32 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Christopher Graja | Argus Research Company |
| Peter Benedict | Baird |
| Robert Drbul | Barclays |