We Think Andersons (NASDAQ:ANDE) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt

Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. As with many other companies The Andersons, Inc. (NASDAQ:ANDE) makes use of debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?

Why Does Debt Bring Risk?

Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

View our latest analysis for Andersons

What Is Andersons's Debt?

As you can see below, Andersons had US$611.4m of debt at September 2023, down from US$1.26b a year prior. On the flip side, it has US$430.1m in cash leading to net debt of about US$181.3m.

How Healthy Is Andersons' Balance Sheet?

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Andersons had liabilities of US$1.41b falling due within a year, and liabilities of US$731.4m due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$430.1m as well as receivables valued at US$816.7m due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling US$892.2m more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

While this might seem like a lot, it is not so bad since Andersons has a market capitalization of US$1.84b, and so it could probably strengthen its balance sheet by raising capital if it needed to. But it's clear that we should definitely closely examine whether it can manage its debt without dilution.

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

While Andersons's low debt to EBITDA ratio of 0.55 suggests only modest use of debt, the fact that EBIT only covered the interest expense by 4.2 times last year does give us pause. But the interest payments are certainly sufficient to have us thinking about how affordable its debt is. Shareholders should be aware that Andersons's EBIT was down 22% last year. If that decline continues then paying off debt will be harder than selling foie gras at a vegan convention. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Andersons's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. During the last three years, Andersons produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 54% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.

Our View

Andersons's EBIT growth rate was a real negative on this analysis, although the other factors we considered cast it in a significantly better light. For example its net debt to EBITDA was refreshing. When we consider all the factors discussed, it seems to us that Andersons is taking some risks with its use of debt. While that debt can boost returns, we think the company has enough leverage now. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for Andersons that you should be aware of.

At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.