Is Toll Brothers, Inc.'s (NYSE:TOL) Recent Stock Performance Tethered To Its Strong Fundamentals?

Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL) has had a great run on the share market with its stock up by a significant 15% over the last month. Given the company's impressive performance, we decided to study its financial indicators more closely as a company's financial health over the long-term usually dictates market outcomes. Specifically, we decided to study Toll Brothers' ROE in this article.

Return on Equity or ROE is a test of how effectively a company is growing its value and managing investors’ money. In short, ROE shows the profit each dollar generates with respect to its shareholder investments.

Check out our latest analysis for Toll Brothers

How To Calculate Return On Equity?

ROE can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Toll Brothers is:

22% = US$1.6b ÷ US$7.3b (Based on the trailing twelve months to April 2024).

The 'return' is the amount earned after tax over the last twelve months. One way to conceptualize this is that for each $1 of shareholders' capital it has, the company made $0.22 in profit.

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.

Toll Brothers' Earnings Growth And 22% ROE

To begin with, Toll Brothers seems to have a respectable ROE. Further, the company's ROE compares quite favorably to the industry average of 15%. Probably as a result of this, Toll Brothers was able to see an impressive net income growth of 25% over the last five years. We reckon that there could also be other factors at play here. For example, it is possible that the company's management has made some good strategic decisions, or that the company has a low payout ratio.

We then performed a comparison between Toll Brothers' net income growth with the industry, which revealed that the company's growth is similar to the average industry growth of 23% in the same 5-year period.

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. Is Toll Brothers fairly valued compared to other companies? These 3 valuation measures might help you decide.

Is Toll Brothers Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

Toll Brothers' three-year median payout ratio to shareholders is 7.0%, which is quite low. This implies that the company is retaining 93% of its profits. This suggests that the management is reinvesting most of the profits to grow the business as evidenced by the growth seen by the company.

Additionally, Toll Brothers has paid dividends over a period of seven years which means that the company is pretty serious about sharing its profits with shareholders. Based on the latest analysts' estimates, we found that the company's future payout ratio over the next three years is expected to hold steady at 6.3%. Still, forecasts suggest that Toll Brothers' future ROE will drop to 16% even though the the company's payout ratio is not expected to change by much.

Summary

In total, we are pretty happy with Toll Brothers' performance. Particularly, we like that the company is reinvesting heavily into its business, and at a high rate of return. Unsurprisingly, this has led to an impressive earnings growth. That being so, according to the latest industry analyst forecasts, the company's earnings are expected to shrink in the future. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com