Taylor Morrison Home Corporation Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Taylor Morrison Home Corporation (NYSE:TMHC) just released its first-quarter report and things are looking bullish. Results were good overall, with revenues beating analyst predictions by 2.7% to hit US$1.7b. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in at US$1.75, some 8.7% above whatthe analysts had expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

View our latest analysis for Taylor Morrison Home

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Taylor Morrison Home's five analysts is for revenues of US$7.80b in 2024. This would reflect a modest 4.6% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to rise 9.8% to US$7.98. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$7.43b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$7.45 in 2024. So there seems to have been a moderate uplift in sentiment following the latest results, given the upgrades to both revenue and earnings per share forecasts for next year.

Despite these upgrades,the analysts have not made any major changes to their price target of US$64.50, suggesting that the higher estimates are not likely to have a long term impact on what the stock is worth. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Taylor Morrison Home analyst has a price target of US$69.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$61.00. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Taylor Morrison Home is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that Taylor Morrison Home's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 6.2% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 12% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this to the 90 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.4% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Taylor Morrison Home is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Taylor Morrison Home following these results. There was also an upgrade to revenue estimates, although as we saw earlier, forecast growth is only expected to be about the same as the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$64.50, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Taylor Morrison Home going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Taylor Morrison Home .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.