Is NVR Fairly Priced After Recent Share Price Volatility in 2025?

• If you have ever wondered whether NVR at around $7,400 a share is still worth buying or finally due for a pullback, you are in the right place to dig into what the numbers actually say about its value.
• Despite a 59.3% gain over 3 years and 75.5% over 5 years, the stock is down 1.6% over the last week, up 3.9% over the past month, and still 7.4% lower year to date, which suggests the market is rethinking how much growth is left in the tank and how much risk it is willing to price in.
• Recent coverage has focused on how NVR continues to navigate a tricky US housing backdrop, with demand holding up better than many feared while supply constraints and higher building costs remain a constant pressure. At the same time, analysts have been re-evaluating homebuilder valuations in light of shifting mortgage rate expectations and longer term housing supply shortages, which helps explain some of the share price volatility.
• Right now, NVR scores just 1/6 on our valuation checks, suggesting that the stock might not be the obvious bargain some investors expect. The more detailed picture will emerge as we walk through different valuation approaches and wrap up with a more structured way to think about what NVR may be worth based on those metrics.

NVR scores just 1/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: NVR Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow model estimates what a company is worth by projecting the cash it can generate in the future and then discounting those cash flows back to today in dollar terms.

For NVR, the latest twelve months Free Cash Flow (FCF) is about $1,290.7 million. Analysts provide explicit forecasts for the next few years, with FCF expected to be around $1,236 million by 2027. Beyond that, Simply Wall St extrapolates a gradual growth path, with FCF projections reaching roughly $1,414.8 million by 2035 as the business continues to expand at modest single digit rates.

Using a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model, these future cash flows are discounted back to arrive at an intrinsic value of about $7,264.95 per share. Compared with the current share price near $7,400, the model suggests NVR is roughly 1.9% overvalued, which is effectively in the “close enough” range rather than a clear bargain or a clear bubble.

Result: ABOUT RIGHT

NVR is fairly valued according to our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), but this can change at a moment's notice. Track the value in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted on when to act.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for NVR.

Approach 2: NVR Price vs Earnings

For a consistently profitable company like NVR, the price to earnings (PE) ratio is a practical way to gauge whether investors are paying a reasonable price for each dollar of current earnings. In general, faster and more reliable earnings growth can justify a higher PE, while greater business or cyclical risk tends to push a fair PE lower as investors demand a bigger margin of safety.

NVR currently trades on a PE of about 14.66x. That is higher than the broader Consumer Durables industry average of roughly 10.68x, and also above the peer group average near 13.13x, which implies the market is already assigning NVR a quality and growth premium. Simply Wall St also calculates a proprietary “Fair Ratio” of 15.57x for NVR, which is the PE you might expect given its earnings growth outlook, margins, industry, market cap and risk profile.

This Fair Ratio is more informative than a simple peer or industry comparison because it adjusts for NVR specific strengths and risks rather than assuming all homebuilders deserve the same multiple. With the current PE only modestly below the 15.57x Fair Ratio, the stock appears reasonably valued on this measure rather than clearly cheap or expensive.

Result: ABOUT RIGHT

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your NVR Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, a simple way to connect your view of NVR’s business to a clear, numbers based valuation.

A Narrative is your story about a company, translated into assumptions about future revenue growth, margins and risk, which then flow into a financial forecast and, ultimately, a fair value estimate.

On Simply Wall St, Narratives are an easy and accessible tool on the Community page, where millions of investors turn their views on companies like NVR into structured forecasts that show whether their fair value estimate sits above or below today’s share price, helping them decide whether it looks more like a buy, a hold or a sell.

Because Narratives are updated dynamically when new information such as earnings results or major news is released, your fair value view can evolve in step with NVR’s situation. You can also see how different investors might reasonably arrive at very different fair values for the same stock, ranging from highly optimistic growth paths to much more cautious outlooks.

Do you think there's more to the story for NVR? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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