We Think Lennar (NYSE:LEN) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt

Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We can see that Lennar Corporation (NYSE:LEN) does use debt in its business. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

When Is Debt Dangerous?

Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.

See our latest analysis for Lennar

How Much Debt Does Lennar Carry?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Lennar had debt of US$4.65b at the end of August 2023, a reduction from US$5.56b over a year. However, it does have US$3.89b in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about US$765.8m.

A Look At Lennar's Liabilities

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Lennar had liabilities of US$1.72b falling due within a year, and liabilities of US$9.93b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of US$3.89b and US$843.8m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total US$6.92b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

This deficit isn't so bad because Lennar is worth a massive US$33.4b, and thus could probably raise enough capital to shore up its balance sheet, if the need arose. But we definitely want to keep our eyes open to indications that its debt is bringing too much risk.

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).

Lennar has a low net debt to EBITDA ratio of only 0.13. And its EBIT easily covers its interest expense, being 308 times the size. So we're pretty relaxed about its super-conservative use of debt. On the other hand, Lennar's EBIT dived 12%, over the last year. We think hat kind of performance, if repeated frequently, could well lead to difficulties for the stock. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Lennar can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, Lennar recorded free cash flow worth 53% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.

Our View

Both Lennar's ability to to cover its interest expense with its EBIT and its net debt to EBITDA gave us comfort that it can handle its debt. But truth be told its EBIT growth rate had us nibbling our nails. When we consider all the elements mentioned above, it seems to us that Lennar is managing its debt quite well. But a word of caution: we think debt levels are high enough to justify ongoing monitoring. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Lennar (1 is a bit unpleasant) you should be aware of.

When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.