Steven Madden (SHOO): Revisiting Valuation After Mixed Q3 Earnings and Q4 Recovery Outlook

Steven Madden (SHOO) just delivered a mixed earnings update, with Q3 revenue up about 7% year over year but coming in below Wall Street expectations. Management sounded upbeat about a stronger turn starting in Q4.

See our latest analysis for Steven Madden.

The earnings miss has not derailed sentiment much, with a roughly 16% 1 month share price return and about 31% over 3 months, while the 3 year total shareholder return near 43% suggests longer term momentum is still intact.

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Yet with shares already rallying and trading only modestly below analyst targets, the key debate now is whether Steven Madden remains quietly undervalued or whether the market has already priced in the next phase of growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 2% Undervalued

With Steven Madden closing at $42.89 against a narrative fair value of $43.75, the story leans toward modest upside built on improving fundamentals.

Bullish analysts highlight that the recent wave of upgrades and target increases reflects growing conviction that Steven Madden is in the early stages of a multi year earnings recovery, supported by improving profitability metrics and operational execution.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how a fashion brand with uneven recent margins still earns a premium future earnings profile, robust growth runway, and a surprisingly restrained valuation multiple? The narrative breaks down the specific revenue build, margin rebuild, and discount rate choice underpinning that near match between price and fair value.

Result: Fair Value of $43.75 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent tariff uncertainty and elevated inventory levels could squeeze margins and delay the earnings recovery that investors are beginning to price in.

Find out about the key risks to this Steven Madden narrative.

Another Lens on Valuation

While our fair value narrative points to a 2% discount, the earnings multiple tells a more cautious story. Steven Madden trades on a lofty 55.4x P/E, versus 22.6x for the US Luxury industry and a 20.4x peer average, above a fair ratio of 46.8x. That gap suggests limited margin for error if growth stumbles. Is the risk still worth paying up for?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Steven Madden Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to stress test the assumptions with your own inputs, you can build a fresh narrative in just a few minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Steven Madden research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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