Dream Finders Homes (NasdaqGS:DFH) - Share price, News & Analysis

DFH fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	2/6
Future Growth	3/6
Past Performance	3/6
Financial Health	3/6
Dividends	0/6

DFH Stock Overview

Dream Finders Homes, Inc. operates as a holding company for Dream Finders Holdings LLC that engages in homebuilding business in the United States.

Rewards

Price-To-Earnings ratio (6.8x) is below the US market (15.7x)

Earnings are forecast to grow 15.97% per year

Earnings grew by 62.4% over the past year

Risk Analysis

Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow

High level of non-cash earnings

Dream Finders Homes Competitors

M/I Homes

NYSE:MHO

US$1.2b

Green Brick Partners

NYSE:GRBK

US$1.3b

Century Communities

NYSE:CCS

US$1.6b

Tri Pointe Homes

NYSE:TPH

US$1.8b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Dream Finders Homes
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$12.50
52 Week High	US$24.24
52 Week Low	US$9.60
Beta	0
1 Month Change	2.29%
3 Month Change	-20.74%
1 Year Change	-45.37%
3 Year Change	n/a
5 Year Change	n/a
Change since IPO	-40.33%

Recent News & Updates

Aug 04

Dream Finders Homes GAAP EPS of $0.60, revenue of $793.13M

Dream Finders Homes press release (NASDAQ:DFH): Q2 GAAP EPS of $0.60 (vs. $0.31 Y/Y). Revenue of $793.13M (+117.1% Y/Y). Dream Finders Homes is reaffirming its guidance of a minimum of 7,000 home closings for the full year 2022. Shares +3.17% PM.

Jun 05

Dream Finders Homes: The Dream Seems To Cool

Dream Finders Homes has seen a very strong 2021. While past results are very strong, the medium-term outlook looks a bit softer, driven by quite a few intense headwinds. I like the business, but simply feel that the headwinds are too severe to create a compelling risk-reward here.

Shareholder Returns

	DFH	US Consumer Durables	US Market
7D	-1.7%	0.4%	0.3%
1Y	-45.4%	-29.7%	-13.5%

Return vs Industry: DFH underperformed the US Consumer Durables industry which returned -26.6% over the past year.

Return vs Market: DFH underperformed the US Market which returned -13% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is DFH's price volatile compared to industry and market?
DFH volatility
DFH Average Weekly Movement	9.0%
Consumer Durables Industry Average Movement	8.0%
Market Average Movement	7.9%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	17.2%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	3.2%

Stable Share Price: DFH is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 9% a week.

Volatility Over Time: DFH's weekly volatility (9%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
2008	1,212	n/a	https://www.dreamfindershomes.com

Dream Finders Homes, Inc. operates as a holding company for Dream Finders Holdings LLC that engages in homebuilding business in the United States. It designs, constructs, and sells single-family entry-level, and first-time and second time move-up homes in Charlotte, Raleigh, Jacksonville, Orlando, Denver, the Washington D.C. metropolitan area, Austin, Dallas, and Houston. The company also operates as a licensed home mortgage broker that underwrites, originates, and sells mortgages to Prime Lending; and provides insurance agency services, including closing, escrow, and title insurance, as well as mortgage banking solutions.

Dream Finders Homes Fundamentals Summary

How do Dream Finders Homes's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
DFH fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$1.16b
Earnings (TTM)	US$171.74m
Revenue (TTM)	US$2.67b

6.8x

P/E Ratio

0.4x

P/S Ratio

Is DFH overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
DFH income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$2.67b
Cost of Revenue	US$2.19b
Gross Profit	US$482.28m
Other Expenses	US$310.54m
Earnings	US$171.74m

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	1.85
Gross Margin	18.05%
Net Profit Margin	6.43%
Debt/Equity Ratio	135.4%

How did DFH perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is DFH undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for DFH?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for DFH. This is calculated by dividing DFH's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is DFH's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	US$1.16b

DFH key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.8x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	8.4x
PEG Ratio	0.4x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does DFH's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

DFH PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for DFH vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	3.5x
MHO M/I Homes	2.8x	5.8%	US$1.2b
GRBK Green Brick Partners	4.7x	-7.8%	US$1.3b
CCS Century Communities	2.8x	-3.4%	US$1.6b
TPH Tri Pointe Homes	3.6x	-11.8%	US$1.8b
DFH Dream Finders Homes	6.8x	16.0%	US$1.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: DFH is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.8x) compared to the peer average (3.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does DFH's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Consumer Durables Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: DFH is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.8x) compared to the US Consumer Durables industry average (8.2x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is DFH's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

DFH PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	6.8x
Fair PE Ratio	12.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: DFH is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.8x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of DFH when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate DFH's fair value for valuation analysis.

Significantly Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate DFH's fair value for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Future Growth

How is Dream Finders Homes forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 2 analysts?

Future Growth Score

3/6

Future Growth Score 3/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

16.0%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: DFH's forecast earnings growth (16% per year) is above the savings rate (1.9%).

Earnings vs Market: DFH's earnings (16% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (14.6% per year).

High Growth Earnings: DFH's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: DFH's revenue (10.7% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (7.9% per year).

High Growth Revenue: DFH's revenue (10.7% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if DFH's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time

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Past Performance

How has Dream Finders Homes performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

3/6

Past Performance Score 3/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

56.7%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: DFH has a high level of non-cash earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: DFH's current net profit margins (6.4%) are lower than last year (7.3%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: DFH's earnings have grown significantly by 56.7% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: DFH's earnings growth over the past year (62.4%) exceeds its 5-year average (56.7% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: DFH earnings growth over the past year (62.4%) exceeded the Consumer Durables industry 34.9%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: Whilst DFH's Return on Equity (30.54%) is high, this metric is skewed due to their high level of debt.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is Dream Finders Homes's financial position?

Financial Health Score

3/6

Financial Health Score 3/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: DFH's short term assets ($1.8B) exceed its short term liabilities ($256.9M).

Long Term Liabilities: DFH's short term assets ($1.8B) exceed its long term liabilities ($1.2B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: DFH's net debt to equity ratio (122.5%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: Insufficient data to determine if DFH's debt to equity ratio has reduced over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: DFH's operating cash flow is negative, therefore debt is not well covered.

Interest Coverage: DFH's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (7223.2x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Dream Finders Homes's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate DFH's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate DFH's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if DFH's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if DFH's dividend payments have been increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as DFH has not reported any payouts.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

CEO

Dream Finders Homes has no CEO, or we have no data on them.

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/08/09 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/08/09 00:00
Earnings	2022/06/30
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31