Unpleasant Surprises Could Be In Store For Cavco Industries, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:CVCO) Shares

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 24.3x Cavco Industries, Inc. (NASDAQ:CVCO) may be sending bearish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in the United States have P/E ratios under 18x and even P/E's lower than 11x are not unusual. However, the P/E might be high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

Cavco Industries could be doing better as it's been growing earnings less than most other companies lately. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think this lacklustre earnings performance will improve markedly. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

View our latest analysis for Cavco Industries

If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report on Cavco Industries.

Does Growth Match The High P/E?

Cavco Industries' P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver solid growth, and importantly, perform better than the market.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered virtually the same number to the company's bottom line as the year before. Still, the latest three year period was better as it's delivered a decent 14% overall rise in EPS. Accordingly, shareholders probably wouldn't have been overly satisfied with the unstable medium-term growth rates.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the three analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 12% over the next year. With the market predicted to deliver 15% growth , the company is positioned for a weaker earnings result.

In light of this, it's alarming that Cavco Industries' P/E sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects, but the analyst cohort is not so confident this will happen. There's a good chance these shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.

The Final Word

It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

We've established that Cavco Industries currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its forecast growth is lower than the wider market. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as the predicted future earnings aren't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. This places shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Cavco Industries that you should be aware of.

Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than Cavco Industries. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.