Columbia Sportswear Company Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Shareholders might have noticed that Columbia Sportswear Company (NASDAQ:COLM) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 7.4% to US$49.63 in the past week. Statutory earnings per share of US$0.95 unfortunately missed expectations by 19%, although it was encouraging to see revenues of US$943m exceed expectations by 2.9%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

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Following last week's earnings report, Columbia Sportswear's nine analysts are forecasting 2026 revenues to be US$3.41b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to drop 10% to US$3.05 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$3.46b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.27 in 2026. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

Check out our latest analysis for Columbia Sportswear

The consensus price target held steady at US$55.67, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Columbia Sportswear analyst has a price target of US$75.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$38.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 0.3% by the end of 2026. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 5.3% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 5.8% per year. It's pretty clear that Columbia Sportswear's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Columbia Sportswear. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Columbia Sportswear's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Columbia Sportswear analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for Columbia Sportswear (1 is a bit concerning!) that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.