CoreCivic, Inc. Just Missed EPS By 9.4%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Shareholders might have noticed that CoreCivic, Inc. (NYSE:CXW) filed its third-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 8.5% to US$16.95 in the past week. CoreCivic beat revenue expectations by 6.6%, at US$580m. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in at US$0.24, some 9.4% short of analyst estimates. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

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After the latest results, the three analysts covering CoreCivic are now predicting revenues of US$2.47b in 2026. If met, this would reflect a solid 18% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to bounce 55% to US$1.62. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$2.33b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.48 in 2026. It looks like there's been a modest increase in sentiment following the latest results, withthe analysts becoming a bit more optimistic in their predictions for both revenues and earnings.

See our latest analysis for CoreCivic

Althoughthe analysts have upgraded their earnings estimates, there was no change to the consensus price target of US$29.88, suggesting that the forecast performance does not have a long term impact on the company's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on CoreCivic, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$32.00 and the most bearish at US$28.00 per share. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting CoreCivic's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 14% annualised growth to the end of 2026 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 1.5% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.9% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that CoreCivic is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around CoreCivic's earnings potential next year. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$29.88, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for CoreCivic going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - CoreCivic has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.