ACCO Brands (ACCO): $15.1 Million One-Off Loss Challenges Value Recovery Narrative

ACCO Brands (ACCO) posted a notable one-off loss of $15.1 million for the twelve months ending September 30, 2025, which weighed on its recent earnings. Shares are trading at $3.76, putting the stock at a Price-To-Earnings Ratio of 8.3x, which is lower than both its peer and industry averages. With analysts projecting EPS to grow 44.1% per year, far outpacing the US market's 15.9% forecast, these results have investors refocusing on the company’s potential for a sharp earnings turnaround, despite a 49.4% annual earnings decline over the last five years.

See our full analysis for ACCO Brands.

Next up, we will see how these headline numbers stack up to the narrative in play among investors and the Simply Wall St community, where consensus is building and where the story might get challenged.

See what the community is saying about ACCO Brands

Margins Set for Major Upswing

• Analysts project ACCO’s profit margins to rise sharply from 2.9% today to 7.0% within three years, even as revenue itself is expected to shrink at a modest annual rate of 0.8%.
• Analysts’ consensus view highlights how aggressive cost-cutting and expansion into premium tech and education products are set to drive this margin turnaround.
  • Consensus points to a $100 million cost reduction program and supply chain modernization as material levers for reducing SG&A and improving net margins well above current levels.
  • At the same time, new product launches in tech accessories and global education play crucial roles in offsetting sluggish legacy categories. This is helping to stabilize the company’s earnings profile even amid falling revenues.

What’s really moving the needle for ACCO’s outlook? See the new consensus narrative at the link below. 📊 Read the full ACCO Brands Consensus Narrative.

Leverage Risks Remain Elevated

• ACCO’s consolidated leverage ratio stands at 4.3x, and the firm has recently had to amend bank covenants to accommodate this higher debt load.
• Analysts’ consensus view emphasizes two interconnected headwinds:
  • Bears argue that persistent high leverage combined with recent one-off losses ($15.1 million) could limit ACCO’s flexibility for new investments and stunt recovery in the event of market shocks or macroeconomic stress.
  • Consensus further flags that cost pressures and ongoing soft demand for traditional office and school products are evident in a 10.5% consolidated sales drop and forecasts for a 7 to 8.5% annual revenue decline. These factors continue to weigh on the recovery path and keep leverage a key risk to monitor.

Share Price Discount versus Analyst Target

• With shares at $3.76, ACCO trades at a 56.6% discount to the $8.67 analyst price target, and is also well below its DCF fair value of $12.16.
• According to the analysts’ consensus view, this steep discount reflects a mix of aggressive forward earnings forecasts and lingering worries:
  • The consensus view contends investors need to believe in $108.7 million in earnings and a healthy 7.0% margin by 2028 to justify current targets. Yet slow revenue growth and execution risks could mean these multiples remain depressed if progress stalls.
  • While DCF and peer-based valuation paint ACCO as a value opportunity, analysts differ on how much margin and product mix improvement are practical over the next three years, especially with sector competition and digital disruption in play.

Next Steps

To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for ACCO Brands on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.

Looking at the numbers from a different angle? Share your perspective and shape your own story in just a few minutes by using Do it your way.

A great starting point for your ACCO Brands research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

See What Else Is Out There

Despite a margin turnaround story, ACCO’s high leverage and one-off losses leave its financial flexibility exposed if market conditions worsen.

If you want to put balance sheet strength first, check out solid balance sheet and fundamentals stocks screener (1984 results) to find companies built for resilience and lower risk of financial distress.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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