VSE Corporation Just Recorded A 39% EPS Beat: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Next

Shareholders of VSE Corporation (NASDAQ:VSEC) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 15% to US$116 following its latest full-year results. Revenues were US$1.1b, approximately in line with whatthe analysts expected, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) crushed expectations, coming in at US$2.03, an impressive 39% ahead of estimates. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for VSE

After the latest results, the six analysts covering VSE are now predicting revenues of US$1.20b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a decent 11% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to bounce 104% to US$3.61. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.39b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.04 in 2025. Indeed, we can see that the analysts are a lot more bearish about VSE's prospects following the latest results, administering a real cut to revenue estimates and slashing their EPS estimates to boot.

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the US$140 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values VSE at US$145 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$134. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's clear from the latest estimates that VSE's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 11% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 7.8% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 6.7% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that VSE is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for VSE. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple VSE analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 4 warning signs we've spotted with VSE (including 2 which are a bit concerning) .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.