Is AI-Driven Growth and Lifted’s Launch Altering the Investment Case for Upwork (UPWK)?

• Upwork reported record quarterly revenue of US$201.7 million and all-time high adjusted EBITDA, driven by strong demand in AI-powered projects and robust client activity for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025.
• The launch of Upwork's new subsidiary, Lifted, aims to expand its reach in the US$650 billion contingent work market while AI-fueled hiring also spiked, with a 52% year-over-year rise in AI-related gross services volume.
• We will examine how Upwork's continued growth in AI-related projects and enterprise solutions may influence its investment narrative going forward.

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Upwork Investment Narrative Recap

To be a shareholder in Upwork, you need to believe that the company can capture ongoing demand for flexible talent solutions, especially as AI adoption accelerates the shift to freelance and contingent workforces. The latest quarterly results, with record revenue and a spike in AI-related projects, likely reinforce confidence in Upwork’s platform improvements as a near-term catalyst, but do little to resolve the underlying risk around slow new client acquisition and macro uncertainty.

The recent launch of Lifted, Upwork’s new subsidiary targeting the US$650 billion contingent workforce market, directly ties into management’s strategy to strengthen enterprise offerings, a key catalyst underpinning longer-term revenue expansion amid AI-fueled hiring trends. This move speaks to Upwork’s efforts to diversify its business and capture larger contracts beyond its traditional client base.

However, while momentum is building in high-demand areas, investors should not overlook the continued pressure on active client growth and the risks tied to...

Read the full narrative on Upwork (it's free!)

Upwork's narrative projects $906.3 million revenue and $147.8 million earnings by 2028. This requires 5.5% yearly revenue growth and a $97.6 million decrease in earnings from $245.4 million today.

Uncover how Upwork's forecasts yield a $21.40 fair value, a 33% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Four individual estimates from the Simply Wall St Community put Upwork’s fair value in a wide US$21.40 to US$43.80 range. While AI-driven project demand remains a catalyst, differences in opinion highlight how future client growth remains a central question for Upwork’s performance.

Explore 4 other fair value estimates on Upwork - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!

Build Your Own Upwork Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Upwork research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Upwork research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Upwork's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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