Paychex Past Earnings Performance
Past criteria checks 2/6
Paychex has been growing earnings at an average annual rate of 7.6%, while the Professional Services industry saw earnings growing at 12.3% annually. Revenues have been growing at an average rate of 7.9% per year. Paychex's return on equity is 40.8%, and it has net margins of 25.8%.
Key information
7.63%
Earnings growth rate
7.64%
EPS growth rate
| Professional Services Industry Growth | 10.99% |
| Revenue growth rate | 7.94% |
| Return on equity | 40.78% |
| Net Margin | 25.84% |
| Last Earnings Update | 28 Feb 2026 |
Recent past performance updates
Recent updates
Seeking Alpha • May 13
Paychex: Giving Credit Where It's Due (Rating Upgrade)
Summary Paychex, Inc. delivered strong Q3 results, but organic growth in its core Management Solutions segment was only ~4% after stripping out Paycor acquisition effects. PAYX’s PEO and Insurance business remains sticky with high retention, yet the core payroll segment faces structural AI commoditization risk that limits valuation upside. Despite $1.5B in YTD capital returns and a 4.76% dividend yield, the stock’s 15.85x forward earnings multiple is not justified by modest organic growth and looming AI risks. I maintain a Sell rating, viewing $70–$75 as a more appropriate entry given the business’s structural realities and risk profile. Click for this PAYX update. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Apr 27
PAYX: AI And Tapcheck Partnership Will Support Post Paycor Integration Concerns
The analyst price target for Paychex has been trimmed by about $0.27, reflecting a wave of recent target cuts from multiple firms as analysts factor in choppy macro conditions and the ongoing integration of Paycor into their models. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Paychex shows a clear reset in expectations, with several firms cutting their price targets and one new initiation at a neutral stance.Narrative Update • Apr 10
PAYX: AI Tools And Buybacks Will Support Post Paycor Integration Concerns
Analysts have nudged their blended price target on Paychex slightly lower to $101.20 from $102.80 as they factor in a higher discount rate, modestly different revenue growth and profit margin assumptions, and a slightly reduced future P/E multiple, following a series of recent target cuts and cautious research notes. Analyst Commentary Recent research has leaned cautious on Paychex, with several firms trimming price targets and a few initiating more conservative ratings as they reassess growth, profitability and the integration of Paycor.
New Narrative • Mar 28
AI Rollout And PEO Demand Will Support Steady Outlook Despite Integration Risks
Catalysts About Paychex Paychex provides HR, payroll, benefits and PEO solutions to businesses of various sizes, with a large small business client base. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?Narrative Update • Mar 27
PAYX: AI Upgrades And Buybacks Will Offset Paycor Integration Concerns
Paychex's analyst price target has been reset lower to about $103 from roughly $117, as analysts factor in softer revenue growth assumptions, a slightly higher discount rate, and a lower future P/E multiple, partly offset by expectations for stable profitability and ongoing integration of Paycor. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Paychex has centered on recalibrated price targets, with several firms adjusting their models to reflect more tempered revenue expectations, a higher discount rate, and lower assumed future P/E multiples.
New Narrative • Mar 13
AI Adoption And HCM Data Scale Will Reshape This Payroll Leader’s Long-Term Potential
Catalysts About Paychex Paychex provides payroll, HR, benefits and HCM technology solutions to small and midsize businesses across its Paychex Flex, SurePayroll and Paycor platforms. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?Narrative Update • Mar 12
PAYX: AI Automation And Buybacks Will Offset Defensive Competitive Concerns Over Time
Analysts have reduced their Paychex price target by about $2 to reflect slightly lower fair value estimates, higher required returns, and modestly softer assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E following recent bearish initiations and cautious commentary. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research has leaned cautious on Paychex, with new coverage framing recent moves, including the Paycor stake, as largely defensive rather than a clear growth accelerator.Narrative Update • Feb 26
PAYX: AI And Buybacks Will Counter Defensive Competitive Pressures Over Time
Analysts have trimmed their Paychex price target slightly to about $119 per share, reflecting modest adjustments to fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E assumptions following new bearish coverage that characterizes recent competitive moves as largely defensive. Analyst Commentary Recent research frames the latest competitive response, including the Paycor related move, as more defensive than opportunistic.Narrative Update • Feb 11
PAYX: AI And Buybacks Will Support Resilient Future Cash Flow Profile
Analysts have trimmed their average Paychex price target slightly to about $119.53 from roughly $120.20, reflecting a modestly lower assumed future P/E and fresh bearish initiation commentary that characterizes the recent Paycor acquisition as a largely defensive move. Analyst Commentary Recent commentary focuses heavily on the Paycor acquisition and how it feeds into expectations for Paychex valuation and execution.Narrative Update • Jan 27
PAYX: AI And Platform Partnerships Will Support Resilient Cash Flow Profile
Analysts have trimmed their Paychex fair value estimate from about US$122 to roughly US$120, reflecting slightly softer revenue growth assumptions, a modestly lower future P/E and a mild uptick in the discount rate after recent bearish initiations on the stock. Analyst Commentary Recent research has focused on the implications of Paychex's move toward Paycor and how that fits with the current fair value reassessment.Narrative Update • Jan 11
PAYX: Broader Suite And AI Will Confront Cyclical Labor And Rate Risks
Analysts have made a modest upward adjustment to their price target on Paychex, pointing to the broader solution suite following the Paycor acquisition, while also flagging cyclical risks tied to potential revenue softness if unemployment rises and interest rates move lower. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts point to the Paycor acquisition as a way for Paychex to offer a broader and more comprehensive suite of solutions, which they see as supportive of the current valuation range.Analysis Article • Jan 07
Should You Investigate Paychex, Inc. (NASDAQ:PAYX) At US$111?
Let's talk about the popular Paychex, Inc. ( NASDAQ:PAYX ). The company's shares received a lot of attention from a...Narrative Update • Dec 25
PAYX: AI And Suite Expansion Will Navigate Cyclical Labor Uncertainty Ahead
Analysts have modestly reduced their Paychex fair value estimate by about $6 to roughly $122 per share, reflecting tempered expectations for revenue growth and future valuation multiples, despite resilient margins and a broader solution suite. Analyst Commentary Street research on Paychex reflects a generally balanced stance, with most firms maintaining neutral or modestly cautious ratings while making incremental target price adjustments.Narrative Update • Dec 11
PAYX: Acquisition Synergy Will Support Suite Expansion Amid Cyclical Labor Market Uncertainty
Analysts modestly reduced their fair value estimate for Paychex to approximately $128 from about $134 per share, citing slightly softer assumptions for long term revenue growth, profit margins, and valuation multiples amid heightened macroeconomic and labor market uncertainty. Analyst Commentary Street research on Paychex reflects a generally cautious, wait and see stance, with most firms maintaining neutral or Hold type ratings while trimming price targets.Narrative Update • Nov 27
PAYX: Acquisition Synergy Will Boost Solution Suite And Support Margin Resilience
The analyst price target for Paychex has edged down slightly, with the fair value estimate decreasing by $0.57 to $134.14. Analysts cite ongoing macroeconomic concerns and mixed signals from recent earnings results as key factors behind the adjustment.Narrative Update • Nov 05
PAYX: Acquisition Will Drive Broader Solution Suite And Support Margins Going Forward
The analyst price target for Paychex has shifted slightly lower, down by $0.52 to $134.71. Analysts see a stable but cautious outlook due to ongoing macroeconomic concerns and modest revenue growth expectations.Narrative Update • Oct 22
Analyst Commentary Highlights Balanced Views on Paychex Amid Subtle Valuation and Growth Adjustments
The analyst price target for Paychex edged up slightly to $135.23 from $135.15, as analysts balanced lower organic growth expectations and macroeconomic uncertainty with the company's resilient margins and cash flow profile. Analyst Commentary Analyst opinions on Paychex reflect a range of perspectives, balancing the company’s strong margins and free cash flow with concerns about cyclical pressures and growth variability.Narrative Update • Oct 08
Paycor Acquisition And AI Tools Will Redefine HCM Solutions
The analyst price target for Paychex has been lowered from approximately $145.08 to $135.15. Analysts cite ongoing revenue growth headwinds, a premium valuation, and a balanced risk/reward outlook in a challenging operating environment.Narrative Update • Sep 23
Paycor Acquisition And AI Tools Will Redefine HCM Solutions
Paychex’s consensus price target was revised slightly lower to $145.08 as analysts cite slower organic revenue growth, lack of FY26 guidance clarity, and a subdued sector outlook amid macroeconomic headwinds, suggesting shares may remain range-bound. Analyst Commentary Slower organic revenue growth in Management Solutions, partly attributed to integration distractions, is weighing on near-term performance and expectations.Narrative Update • Sep 04
Paycor Acquisition And AI Tools Will Redefine HCM Solutions
Paychex’s analyst price target remained unchanged at $147.33 as mixed sentiment—driven by weaker-than-expected Q4 results, softer revenue growth, integration concerns surrounding the Paycor deal, and uncertainty over FY26 projections—was offset by a stable client base and resilient underlying demand. Analyst Commentary Bearish analysts highlight weaker-than-expected Q4 and softer organic revenue growth, with Paychex’s fiscal 2026 guidance falling below investor expectations.Analysis Article • Sep 02
Investor Optimism Abounds Paychex, Inc. (NASDAQ:PAYX) But Growth Is Lacking
With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 30.3x Paychex, Inc. ( NASDAQ:PAYX ) may be sending very bearish signals at...Analysis Article • Aug 04
The Returns On Capital At Paychex (NASDAQ:PAYX) Don't Inspire Confidence
Finding a business that has the potential to grow substantially is not easy, but it is possible if we look at a few key...Analysis Article • Jul 11
Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of Paychex, Inc. (NASDAQ:PAYX)
Key Insights The projected fair value for Paychex is US$145 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Current share...Analysis Article • Jun 18
Here's Why We Think Paychex (NASDAQ:PAYX) Might Deserve Your Attention Today
Investors are often guided by the idea of discovering 'the next big thing', even if that means buying 'story stocks...Seeking Alpha • Mar 24
Paychex: Accelerating Growth With Paycor
Summary Paychex shares trade at a premium, supported by organic growth and the Paycor acquisition, despite economic cyclicality concerns. Paychex's technology-driven growth in human capital management targets a $90 billion market, with strong client retention and consistent revenue growth. The Paycor acquisition adds 50,000 larger clients, with huge synergy potential amidst lackluster margins reported. At 27 times earnings, Paychex must deliver on integration and synergies. I'm waiting for more impact clues before reconsidering my neutral stance. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jan 25
Paychex Inc: The Paycor Acquisition Could Be A Game Changer
Summary I recommend a buy rating for Paychex Inc. (PAYX) due to its transformative acquisition of PYCR, expanding its TAM and cross-selling opportunities. The acquisition increases PAYX's TAM by ~$10 billion, targeting mid-market clients and leveraging AI-powered HR tools for significant productivity gains. Financial synergies include $80 million in cost savings and substantial cross-selling opportunities, potentially accelerating revenue growth to high single digits or low teens. Despite the $4.1 billion price tag, the valuation is reasonable, and successful integration could narrow PAYX's valuation discount relative to peers, offering upside potential. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jan 08
Paychex Writes A Fat Check For Paycor HCM
Summary Paychex's acquisition of Paycor HCM for $22.50 per share led to a 3% drop in Paycor's stock, reflecting market disappointment. Despite the drop, Paychex's management expects $80 million in annual run-rate synergies and additional revenue synergies from the deal. PAYX shares have underperformed the S&P 500, but the company's fundamentals are strong, though its stock remains expensive. I maintain a 'hold' rating for Paychex and recommend a 'sell' for PYCR due to limited additional upside. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Dec 20
Paychex: Payrolling In Profits, But Valuation Could Use A Check
Summary Paychex's Q2 2025 results exceeded expectations, driven by strong growth in PEO and Insurance Solutions, and a focus on AI-driven solutions and HR analytics. Despite a solid outlook for FY 2025, risks include a moderating job market and increasing competition in the HR and payroll services industry. The company's valuation is high, trading at a premium to historical and peer group multiples, making it difficult to justify paying current prices for the stock. Given the strong fundamentals but expensive valuation, I rate Paychex a 'hold'. Investors may want to avoid the stock for now. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Oct 02
Paychex Q1: Did Not Put Me Over The Fence
Summary Paychex's Q1 earnings showed slight revenue and EPS growth, but not enough to change my hold rating due to the lack of significant catalysts. The expiration of the ERTC program impacted revenue growth and margins, but the company remains financially strong with substantial cash reserves. New offerings like Paychex Flex Engage and AI-driven recruiting co-pilot show innovation, but are hard to quantify in terms of sales impact. I am waiting for further margin improvements and revenue catalysts before considering an investment; maintaining a hold rating on PAYX stock for now. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaRevenue & Expenses Breakdown
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
How Paychex makes and spends money. Based on latest reported earnings, on an LTM basis.
Earnings and Revenue History
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | G+A Expenses | R&D Expenses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Feb 26 | 6,334 | 1,637 | 2,189 | 0 |
| 30 Nov 25 | 6,034 | 1,596 | 1,906 | 0 |
| 31 Aug 25 | 5,793 | 1,614 | 1,871 | 0 |
| 31 May 25 | 5,572 | 1,657 | 1,702 | 0 |
| 28 Feb 25 | 5,440 | 1,740 | 1,643 | 0 |
| 30 Nov 24 | 5,370 | 1,719 | 1,639 | 0 |
| 31 Aug 24 | 5,311 | 1,699 | 1,627 | 0 |
| 31 May 24 | 5,278 | 1,690 | 1,625 | 0 |
| 29 Feb 24 | 5,213 | 1,661 | 1,593 | 0 |
| 30 Nov 23 | 5,155 | 1,630 | 1,580 | 0 |
| 31 Aug 23 | 5,087 | 1,597 | 1,551 | 0 |
| 31 May 23 | 5,007 | 1,557 | 1,521 | 0 |
| 28 Feb 23 | 4,922 | 1,503 | 1,505 | 0 |
| 30 Nov 22 | 4,817 | 1,467 | 1,470 | 0 |
| 31 Aug 22 | 4,735 | 1,438 | 1,448 | 0 |
| 31 May 22 | 4,612 | 1,393 | 1,415 | 0 |
| 28 Feb 22 | 4,497 | 1,359 | 1,385 | 0 |
| 30 Nov 21 | 4,332 | 1,279 | 1,363 | 0 |
| 31 Aug 21 | 4,208 | 1,220 | 1,336 | 0 |
| 31 May 21 | 4,057 | 1,098 | 1,325 | 0 |
| 28 Feb 21 | 3,943 | 1,055 | 1,289 | 0 |
| 30 Nov 20 | 3,974 | 1,059 | 1,282 | 0 |
| 31 Aug 20 | 3,981 | 1,046 | 1,298 | 0 |
| 31 May 20 | 4,041 | 1,098 | 1,299 | 0 |
| 29 Feb 20 | 4,106 | 1,108 | 1,314 | 0 |
| 30 Nov 19 | 4,034 | 1,078 | 1,297 | 0 |
| 31 Aug 19 | 3,902 | 1,055 | 1,259 | 0 |
| 31 May 19 | 3,773 | 1,034 | 1,218 | 0 |
| 28 Feb 19 | 3,638 | 1,022 | 1,158 | 0 |
| 30 Nov 18 | 3,504 | 1,064 | 1,137 | 0 |
| 31 Aug 18 | 3,448 | 1,027 | 1,101 | 0 |
| 31 May 18 | 3,378 | 994 | 1,068 | 0 |
| 28 Feb 18 | 3,331 | 972 | 1,058 | 0 |
| 30 Nov 17 | 3,190 | 807 | 1,016 | 0 |
| 31 Aug 17 | 3,159 | 810 | 998 | 0 |
| 31 May 17 | 3,153 | 826 | 980 | 0 |
| 28 Feb 17 | 3,107 | 800 | 981 | 0 |
| 30 Nov 16 | 3,063 | 778 | 975 | 0 |
| 31 Aug 16 | 3,014 | 765 | 964 | 0 |
| 31 May 16 | 2,952 | 757 | 948 | 0 |
| 29 Feb 16 | 2,890 | 740 | 928 | 0 |
| 30 Nov 15 | 2,842 | 729 | 910 | 0 |
| 31 Aug 15 | 2,796 | 713 | 894 | 0 |
Quality Earnings: PAYX has high quality earnings.
Growing Profit Margin: PAYX's current net profit margins (25.8%) are lower than last year (32%).
Free Cash Flow vs Earnings Analysis
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: PAYX's earnings have grown by 7.6% per year over the past 5 years.
Accelerating Growth: PAYX's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.
Earnings vs Industry: PAYX had negative earnings growth (-5.9%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Professional Services industry average (8.7%).
Return on Equity
High ROE: Whilst PAYX's Return on Equity (40.78%) is outstanding, this metric is skewed due to their high level of debt.
Return on Assets
Return on Capital Employed
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/06/01 17:20 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/29 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/02/28 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/05/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
| |
| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
| |
| Ownership | 10 years |
| |
| Management | 10 years |
| |
| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Paychex, Inc. is covered by 35 analysts. 18 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| null null | Argus Research Company |
| Mark Marcon | Baird |
| Lisa Dejong Ellis | Bernstein |