Healthcare Services Group, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:HCSG) Intrinsic Value Is Potentially 95% Above Its Share Price

Key Insights

• The projected fair value for Healthcare Services Group is US$28.01 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
• Healthcare Services Group's US$14.33 share price signals that it might be 49% undervalued
• The US$15.33 analyst price target for HCSG is 45% less than our estimate of fair value

Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Healthcare Services Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:HCSG) as an investment opportunity by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.

Check out our latest analysis for Healthcare Services Group

What's The Estimated Valuation?

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032
Levered FCF ($, Millions)	US$44.1m	US$64.9m	US$81.2m	US$95.9m	US$108.8m	US$119.6m	US$128.7m	US$136.4m	US$142.9m	US$148.5m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x2	Analyst x2	Est @ 25.12%	Est @ 18.21%	Est @ 13.37%	Est @ 9.98%	Est @ 7.61%	Est @ 5.94%	Est @ 4.78%	Est @ 3.97%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 7.4%	US$41.0	US$56.2	US$65.5	US$72.1	US$76.1	US$77.9	US$78.1	US$77.0	US$75.1	US$72.7

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$692m

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.1%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 7.4%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₂ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$149m× (1 + 2.1%) ÷ (7.4%– 2.1%) = US$2.8b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= US$2.8b÷ ( 1 + 7.4%)¹⁰= US$1.4b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$2.1b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$14.3, the company appears quite undervalued at a 49% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

Important Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Healthcare Services Group as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.4%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.898. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Healthcare Services Group

Moving On:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For Healthcare Services Group, there are three additional items you should assess:

1. Financial Health: Does HCSG have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
2. Management:Have insiders been ramping up their shares to take advantage of the market's sentiment for HCSG's future outlook? Check out our management and board analysis with insights on CEO compensation and governance factors.
3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NASDAQGS every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.