Casella Waste Systems, Inc. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Predictions

It's been a good week for Casella Waste Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:CWST) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest third-quarter results, and the shares gained 2.3% to US$89.95. Casella Waste Systems reported US$485m in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.16 beat expectations, being 5.5% higher than what the analysts expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Casella Waste Systems from nine analysts is for revenues of US$1.98b in 2026. If met, it would imply a decent 10% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to leap 205% to US$0.73. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$1.97b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.68 in 2026. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on Casella Waste Systems' earnings potential following these results.

See our latest analysis for Casella Waste Systems

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$113, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Casella Waste Systems at US$140 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$95.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that Casella Waste Systems' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 8.2% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 18% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.0% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Casella Waste Systems' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Casella Waste Systems following these results. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Casella Waste Systems going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Casella Waste Systems (at least 1 which is a bit concerning) , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.