Does Cintas Still Offer Growth After Strong 2025 Earnings and Five Year Gains?

Thinking about what to do with your Cintas shares? Or maybe you’re just considering getting in on the action. Either way, if you care about long-term gain, Cintas has certainly been a stock to watch. Despite a slight decline of 0.8% over the past week and 0.9% in the last month, its year-to-date return is an impressive 11.3%. While the stock has pulled back by 0.4% over the past year, the bigger picture shows significant outperformance, up nearly 109% over three years and a remarkable 152% across five years.

That kind of long-run growth tends to grab investor attention, but it also invites a key question: is the stock still good value at today’s price, or has it run too far ahead of its fundamentals? Cintas hasn’t shown up as undervalued in any of the typical valuation checks, with its value score at 0 out of 6 for being undervalued. This suggests the market may have already priced in a lot of optimism about the business, perhaps reflecting confidence in management, the company’s role in economic reopening, or broader sector trends.

But before you let that number turn you away, let’s break down what goes into those valuation checks and why some investors see more to the story. Next, we will look at how Cintas stacks up across the main approaches to stock valuation, and then I’ll share an even better way to think about what the company is really worth in today’s market.

Cintas scores just 0/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: Cintas Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model estimates a company's intrinsic value by forecasting its future cash flows and then discounting those amounts back to today’s terms. This approach helps investors gauge what those future dollars are worth in present-day money, giving a data-driven estimate of a stock’s underlying worth.

For Cintas, the current Free Cash Flow (FCF) stands at approximately $1.69 billion. Analyst projections cover the next five years, with future FCF expected to grow steadily each year and reach around $2.37 billion in 2028. Beyond that, Simply Wall St extrapolates these forecasts further, with ten-year projections suggesting rising cash flows up to $3.14 billion by 2035. Each projection is discounted to account for time and risk, reflecting what they would be worth if received today.

Based on this analysis, the DCF model determines Cintas’s fair value at $150.53 per share. Compared to the recent stock price, this implies the shares are about 34.6% above their intrinsic worth, signaling they are notably overvalued according to this method.

Result: OVERVALUED

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Cintas.

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Cintas may be overvalued by 34.6%. Find undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.

Approach 2: Cintas Price vs Earnings

The Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is a popular valuation metric for profitable companies like Cintas because it directly relates a company's share price to its earnings. Investors often use this measure to judge how much they are paying for a dollar of earnings, making it a quick way to assess relative value, especially when a business has steady profits.

Growth expectations and risk levels are key drivers behind what is considered a “normal” or “fair” PE ratio. Fast-growing, stable companies typically command higher multiples since investors expect stronger earnings in the future. Companies with lower growth or more risk usually trade at more moderate ratios.

Currently, Cintas trades at a PE ratio of 44.4x. This is substantially above both the Commercial Services industry average of 29.8x and its peer group average of 34.9x. This suggests the market has high expectations for Cintas’s future.

Simply Wall St’s proprietary “Fair Ratio” takes things a step further, estimating what would be a reasonable PE multiple for Cintas considering not only its growth outlook, but also profitability, risk profile, market cap, and how it stacks up within its broader industry. Unlike raw peer or industry comparisons, this approach accounts for the specific nuances that can move valuation up or down for an individual business.

Cintas’s Fair Ratio is 32.8x, noticeably lower than its current PE of 44.4x. This signals that, even when factoring in positive company dynamics, the stock is priced well above what would be considered “fair” by these more comprehensive benchmarks.

Result: OVERVALUED

PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Cintas Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let’s introduce you to Narratives. A Narrative is your own story about what you believe will drive Cintas’s future, combining the facts and forecasts behind the numbers with your perspective on everything from revenue to margins to risk.

Instead of relying only on static models or generic benchmarks, Narratives let you tie together what matters most: your view on the business’s story, your forecast of financial performance, and your estimate of fair value. This approach is both intuitive and dynamic, empowering you to clearly see how your expectations compare to the current price and to the perspectives of millions of other investors on Simply Wall St, all within the Community page.

Narratives can help you decide when to buy or sell by allowing you to update your assumptions alongside new news, earnings, or market developments, so your fair value always reflects the latest information. For example, some investors are confident Cintas will hit high analyst targets, projecting a fair value of $257 per share, while others focus on margin risks and see a fair value closer to $172. Narratives make it easy to visualize and compare these perspectives, so you can invest with more conviction and clarity.

Do you think there's more to the story for Cintas? Create your own Narrative to let the Community know!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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