Conduent Incorporated (NASDAQ:CNDT) Shares May Have Slumped 36% But Getting In Cheap Is Still Unlikely

Conduent Incorporated (NASDAQ:CNDT) shareholders won't be pleased to see that the share price has had a very rough month, dropping 36% and undoing the prior period's positive performance. For any long-term shareholders, the last month ends a year to forget by locking in a 57% share price decline.

Although its price has dipped substantially, Conduent's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 28.1x might still make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in the United States, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 18x and even P/E's below 10x are quite common. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.

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For example, consider that Conduent's financial performance has been poor lately as its earnings have been in decline. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be quite nervous about the viability of the share price.

View our latest analysis for Conduent

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Conduent's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Is There Enough Growth For Conduent?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, Conduent would need to produce outstanding growth well in excess of the market.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 42% decrease to the company's bottom line. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk EPS by 87% in aggregate. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing earnings over that time.

Weighing that medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 16% shows it's an unpleasant look.

With this information, we find it concerning that Conduent is trading at a P/E higher than the market. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Bottom Line On Conduent's P/E

Conduent's shares may have retreated, but its P/E is still flying high. We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

Our examination of Conduent revealed its shrinking earnings over the medium-term aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given the market is set to grow. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

You always need to take note of risks, for example - Conduent has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Conduent, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.