Capstone Energy+, Inc.

OTCPK:CGEH Stock Report

Market Cap: US$281.3m

Capstone Energy+ Future Growth

Future criteria checks 4/6

Capstone Energy+ is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 122.2% and 17% per annum respectively while EPS is expected to grow by 119.9% per annum.

Key information

122.2%

Earnings growth rate

119.88%

EPS growth rate

Electrical earnings growth18.5%
Revenue growth rate17.0%
Future return on equityn/a
Analyst coverage

Low

Last updated02 Apr 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Analysis Article • Apr 18

Investors Aren't Entirely Convinced By Capstone Green Energy Corporation's (NASDAQ:CGRN) Revenues

You may think that with a price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.3x Capstone Green Energy Corporation ( NASDAQ:CGRN ) is...
Analysis Article • Jan 13

Capstone Green Energy (NASDAQ:CGRN) Has Debt But No Earnings; Should You Worry?

Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of...
Seeking Alpha • Oct 05

Capstone Green Energy: All Is Not Lost

Summary Capstone Green Energy has two issues – strengthening its balance sheet and turning the business into a profitable one. The historical losses are because it is operating below breakeven. While CGRN has the product and distribution network, it needs time to reach a profitable stage. This will require substantial funding that could be dilutive for the existing shareholders. The current Book Value does not reflect the true value of the business. But the value to shareholders has to account for the possible new equity to be issued. The business is viable. I estimated that post-funding, the value of the shares ranged from USD 1-3 per share. The current market price is fully valued. Investment Thesis There are 2 challenges facing Capstone Green Energy Corporation (CGRN). It has to strengthen its Balance Sheet and turn the business into a profitable one. But to solve the first, it has to convince investors and/or financial institutions that it can deliver the second. The business is viable as the historical losses are because it is operating below the breakeven levels. There is a growing market but CGRN needs time to rebuild back its sale volume. All these are positive factors in seeking additional funding. It also makes CGRN an attractive acquisition target. But the funding has to be substantial. While the current Reproduction Value is greater than the market price, we have to look at the share price post-funding. On such a basis, I estimated that at the current market price of USD 1.80 per share is a fully valued one. I would recommend going in if the price falls to USD 1 per share. Introduction CGRN is an ailing US micro turbine manufacturer that has not been profitable since its IPO in 2000. Micro-turbines are tiny gas turbines that can generate both electricity and heat. CGRN is probably among the pioneers to commercialize micro turbine technology. Because of its history of losses, CGRN currently faces some Balance Sheet challenges. These were recently covered in Seeking Alpha. Refer to "Capstone Green Energy: Abysmal Q4 Causes Debt Default, Bankruptcy Might Be In The Cards". To resolve its current Balance Sheet problems, it has to demonstrate that it has a viable business. Specifically, it should: Identify the reasons for its losses and show that they can be addressed. Show that the current Book Value does not reflect its business value. I will show in the following sections that both are possible. The business has value and management may seek Chapter 11 protection to enable CGRN to be restructured. Alternatively, CGRN may be acquired. Irrespective of the routes to solve the Balance Sheet problems, they would involve some new equity issuance. I estimated that post-funding, the value of the shares to be between USD 1.26 to USD 2.89 per share. I am more inclined to think that at the current price of USD 1.80 per share, it is fully valued. Losses I tracked the past 10 years' sales and broke them down into 2 product segments as illustrated in Chart 1. Parts & Services. This has grown at a 3.1 % CAGR from 2013 to 2022. Products & Others. This was derived by deducting the total revenue from the Parts & Services revenue. This segment shrunk so that the 2022 revenue was only a bit more than 1/3 of the 2013 revenue. The Parts & Services segment will probably continue to grow due to CGRN's product sales over the past 2 decades. This is notwithstanding the move into Energy as a Service (EaaS). The positive thing is that CGRN had managed to achieve a higher sales volume in the past for the Products & Others segment. It needs to recapture back the "lost" sales. Chart 1: Product Segment Revenue (Author) The growing market for micro turbines The declining Products & Others segment's sales is a surprise as the market for micro turbines is growing. Refer to Table 1. I estimated that the 2022 global market for micro turbines to range from USD 60 million to USD 250 million with an average of USD 150 m. This is not exactly a large market and based on this, CGRN would have about ¼ of the average global market. Looking at Chart 1, you would agree that CGRN probably lost market share over the past 10 years. The positive side is that the consensus growth rate is about 10% CAGR. This means that the market would double by 2030. If CGRN just maintains its current market share, its Products & Others segment revenue could be doubled the current one. Table 1: Market for Micro Turbines (Author) Operating below break-even CGRN losses are because it is operating below its break-even level. I carried out a back-of-envelop analysis of the break-even based on the data that was available from 2016 as shown in Table 2. You can see that the gross margin problem is with the Products & Others segment. For this segment to achieve a positive gross margin, it needs about USD 50 million in sales. This is of course not the breakeven level as CGRN needs to generate sufficient revenue to cover the fixed costs. Table 2: Segment Gross Margins (Author) I estimated that the average fixed costs incurred by CGRN annually to be about USD 28 million. I then worked on a possible breakeven scenario as shown in Table 3. To cover its fixed costs, CGRN needs to generate at least USD 28 million of gross profit. This requires its annual sales for the Products & Others segment to be about 4 times its long-term average i.e. about USD 200 million. The question then is whether the market is big enough for CGRN to achieve this. I had earlier projected that the market in 2030 would be doubled by the current estimates. Considering that CGRN needs USD 200 million from the Products & Others segment to break even, it seems a tall order. Table 3: Breakeven Analysis (Author) But CGRN's expertise is not just in micro turbines. It also has patents for air bearings which seemed to be a much bigger market as shown in Table 4. Several of the sources have cited CGRN as one of the players in this sector. CGRN announced commercializing this product in 2018: "…first commercial order to sell air bearing assemblies to be used by a Fortune 500 industrial manufacturer of gas facility solutions for one of their commercial gas handling products." Source: CGRN Press Release May 2018 Table 4: Market for Air Bearings (Author) I could not find any reason why CGRN did not expand the air bearing business. Most of the product descriptions in its Annual Report focused on micro turbines. Given the micro turbine market size, I would have thought that the expansion of EaaS is not as impactful as expanding the air bearing business. To sum up, this is a viable business: There is a growing demand for micro turbines. If the green energy movement takes off, the demand could even be bigger. There is the potential for CGRN to expand into air bearings where there is bigger demand. Historically CGRN had achieved a Products & Others segment sales that are 3 times larger than the current one. There are also prospects of improving the breakeven level. In Table 3, I derived a gross profit margin (excluding Dep & Amor) of 12.1 %. It is a conservative one as between 2013 and 2022, the actual gross profit margin (accounting for Dep & Amor) ranged from 10.6 % to 18.3 % with an average of 14.6 %. Based on sensitivity analyses, there are scenarios where the total revenue is about USD 140 million to break even. Profitability is doable. Valuation As CGRN does not have a profit track record, I did not attempt to value it based on a DCF approach. Instead, I used the Reproduction Valuation method. This is an Asset Valuation approach made famous by Professor Greenwald. The Reproduction Valuation method looks at what it would cost to rebuild the business or start a competing business in the same position. "The first thing to decide when performing an Asset Valuation is if the industry is a viable one or not. If it's not then the company will be liquidated and the assets should be valued at their liquidation value…If the industry is viable and the company a going concern, then a company's productive ability constantly has to be renewed to be competitive, i.e. the assets have to be replaced over time. Hence, you have to look at the cost of reproducing those assets with today's technology and prices." Source: The Greenwald Method, Investingbythebook.com Table 5 illustrates the computation of the Reproduction Value for CGRN. I assumed that the Book Value did not capture all the value and hence I adjusted it by the cost to reproduce the business. There were 3 adjustments: Customer relationships. According to CGRN "…Our worldwide distribution network was developed from the ground up and has become a valuable asset." CGRN has trained its distributors to provide applications engineering support for its products. I estimated that anyone starting from scratch would have to spend at least one year of SGA to set up a trained distribution network. R&D goodwill. CGRN expensed off its R&D expenditure. It has today several patents. I assumed that these are worth at least 5 years of its annual R&D expenditure. PPE. Given the current inflation, it would cost more to reproduce its plant and machinery. I have assumed that the current Book Value understated this by 3 years of its depreciation and amortization. Based on the above assumptions, I estimate CGRN's Reproduction Value to be USD 3.32 per share. This far exceeds the market price of USD 1.80 per share (as of 3 Oct 2022). Table 5: Computation of Reproduction Value (Author) It is possible to get higher Reproduction Values as the R&D or even the Customer relationship estimates could be higher than those shown in Table 5. The main point is that the Book Value did not capture all the values of CGRN. But this does not mean that the value of equity for the existing shareholders is USD 3.32 per share. This is because the Reproduction Value of USD 3.32 per share assumed that CGRN does not need to raise additional funds. Additional funding scenarios Over the past 10 years, CGRN had an average negative Cash Flow from Operations of USD 17 million per year. Assume that it would require 3 years to turn the business into a profitable one. This meant that CGRN would require about USD 51 million to fund the operations before it can be profitable and be cash flow positive. At the same time, its EaaS business would also require some funding. In 2022, USD 8.7 million was invested in its rental fleet. To grow this to 2030 at the same rate, I guesstimated that it would require about USD 70 million. These are of course back-of-the-envelope calculations. The point I am making is that to turn CGRN into a profitable one would require about USD 120 million in funding. I assumed that it is all funded via equity. CGRN currently has a Total Capital Employed (SHF + Debt) of USD 65 million. We are then looking at a required Total Capital Employed of USD 185 million for a "steady state" situation. To generate a 10% return, CGRN would need to generate about USD 18.5 m EBIT. Looking at Table 3, it means either higher revenue and/or gross profit margins than what were projected. If nothing else, it suggests that CGRN should seriously consider expanding into the air bearings market. Then there is a question of the value of the existing shares. This will depend on the value of the business and the price of the new shares to be issued. I looked at 2 scenarios: Scenario A - Reproduction value of USD 50 million and the new shares to be issued at a 50% discount to the current market price. Scenario B - Reproduction value of USD 100 million and the new shares to be issued based on the current market price. Scenario A is a conservative one. I estimated the value of the shares post-funding to be USD 1.26 per share as illustrated in Table 6. Based on Scenario B, the value of the shares would be USD 2.89 per share. The current market price of USD 1.80 per share could be obtained with USD 75 million Reproduction Value and new shares issued at a 35 % discount to the current price.
Seeking Alpha • Sep 29

Capstone Green Energy receives order for two C65 microturbine systems

Capstone Green Energy (NASDAQ:CGRN) shares gained ~6% premarket on Thursday after the energy solutions firm secured an order from a major oil and gas operator. As part of the order, Capstone (CGRN) will provide two C65 ATEX-certified microturbine systems for the unmanned gas platform located on the eastern coast of Trinidad. Expected to be commissioned in the summer of 2023, the microturbines  will be fueled by the available on-site unprocessed wellhead gas and provide a reliable power source for the gas platform.
Seeking Alpha • Sep 21

Capstone Green Energy secures follow-on order for 5 microturbines in Marcellus Shale

Capstone Green Energy (NASDAQ:CGRN) stated Wednesday that E-Finity Distributed Generation has secured second follow-on order to deliver 5 C65 microturbine systems at various oil and gas wellhead sites in the Marcellus Shale region.  E-Finity Distributed Generation is Capstone's exclusive distributor for the Mid-Atlantic, Southeastern United States and the Caribbean. The dual-mode 65 kilowatt (kW) microturbines are said to  allow the customer to generate power from production gas for on-site power delivering lower operational costs and reducing site emissions. The systems are expected to commission in Q2 2023. Earlier: Capstone Green Energy to supply five microturbines for Colorado site
Seeking Alpha • Sep 12

Capstone Green Energy to supply five microturbines for Colorado site

Capstone Green Energy's (NASDAQ:CGRN) distributor has secured an order for five of its C65 microturbines for a remote natural gas wellsite in northwestern Colorado. The undisclosed customer is a natural gas producer with a presence in one of the largest natural gas basins in the US. The Capstone C65 microturbines will be commissioned and enter operations in late 2022. They will be powered by high-pressure natural gas produced on-site. The microturbines will be used to run a saltwater disposal (SWD) facility at the wellsite, switching from continuous power to standby as needed.
Seeking Alpha • Aug 19

Capstone Green Energy stock slides after pricing ~$8M securities offering

Capstone Green Energy (NASDAQ:CGRN) shares slumped 43% pre-market on Friday after the firm priced its ~$8M securities offering. The offering consists of 2.93M shares of common stock and accompanying warrants to purchase up to 2.93M, issued at a combined price of $2.75 per share and accompanying warrant. The warrants are exercisable immediately at $2.75/share and will expire five years following the date of issuance. The gross proceeds to Capstone from the offering, before underwriting discounts and commissions and offering expenses, are expected to be ~$8M. Net proceeds from the offering will be used for working capital, general corporate purposes and growth initiatives, including to expand its energy-as-a-service long-term rental fleet. Offering is expected to close on Aug. 23, 2022.
Seeking Alpha • Jul 15

Capstone Green Energy: Abysmal Q4 Causes Debt Default, Bankruptcy Might Be In The Cards

Ailing microturbine manufacturer files its previously delayed annual report on Form 10-K but abstains from providing detailed Q4 results in a separate press release. Q4 results were weak across the board with lower-than-expected sales, weak gross margins, and elevated cash usage. Company violated EBITDA covenants governing $51 million in Goldman Sachs notes but negotiated an amendment to the note purchase agreement. Amendment requires the company to raise a minimum of $10 million in new equity by September 14 and refinance the notes by October 1. It's difficult to envision Capstone raising a substantial amount of equity and refinancing $51 million in debt in the current market environment. Investors should seriously consider selling existing positions or outright shorting the shares. Note: I have covered Capstone Green Energy (CGRN) previously, so investors should view this as an update to my earlier articles on the company. On Thursday, ailing microturbine manufacturer Capstone Green Energy (formerly Capstone Turbine) or "Capstone" filed its previously delayed annual report on form 10-K with the SEC but abstained from announcing Q4/FY2022 results in a separate press release. Quite frankly, after taking a deep dive into the 10-K, I am not exactly surprised by management's decision as quarterly results came in well below expectations with revenues of $16.1 million missing consensus expectations of $22.6 million by a mile. Gross margins decreased by 480 basis points sequentially to a measly 6.0%. Company Press Releases and SEC-Filings Days sales outstanding ("DSO") increased by 30% sequentially to 150 days due to "continued delayed collections in all markets due to the COVID-19 pandemic and impacts from the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine". Free cash flow was negative by $8.7 million for the quarter and $37.4 million for FY2022. After accounting for the $9.0 minimum liquidity covenant related to an aggregate $51.0 million in Goldman Sachs notes, available liquidity was down to $13.6 million at the end of March. In addition, CFO Frederick S. Hencken III recently tendered his resignation and has already left the company. Last week, Capstone appointed Scott Robinson as Interim CFO while conducting a nationwide search for a new, permanent CFO. At the end of March, the company failed to comply with the Adjusted EBITDA covenant governing the Goldman Sachs notes thus resulting in the requirement to negotiate a waiver. On Wednesday, the parties signed an amendment to the note purchase agreement requiring the company to use "commercially reasonable best efforts" to: Raise a minimum of $10.0 million through a sale of common stock by September 14. Refinance the notes by October 1. In addition, Capstone will be required to retain an investment bank for the equity raise by August 10, submit a "revised financial plan" by late August and deliver cash flow forecasts on a weekly basis. While the company might somehow manage to raise the required $10 million in new equity, conditions are likely to be ugly. Thirteen months ago, Capstone raised $5 million in a bought deal offering with H.C. Wainwright, with the $5.25 offering price representing an almost 30% discount to the previous close at that time. Considering the required minimum amount of $10 million and the very weak market environment, potential investors are likely to demand an even higher discount this time. Assuming the company raises $10 million at a price of $1.50 per share, outstanding shares would increase by almost 45%. While raising the required amount of equity will already prove difficult, refinancing the notes in the current environment looks almost impossible.
Seeking Alpha • Apr 25

Capstone Green Energy Announces New Focus On Microturbine Rentals - Avoid

Discussing new focus on the company's so-called Energy-as-a-Service ("EaaS") business which will continue to pressure cash flows. Company takes additional measures to reduce expenses with a stated goal of reaching consistent quarterly positive adjusted EBITDA. Covenants governing $51 million in notes held by Goldman Sachs require the company to reduce adjusted EBITDA losses going forward. At the current rate of cash usage, the company will have to raise additional capital in the second half of this year. With limited options for raising additional funds and a major debt maturity approaching next year, it is difficult to remain optimistic on the company's prospects. Investors should avoid the shares or consider selling existing positions.
Analysis Article • Dec 07

Would Capstone Green Energy (NASDAQ:CGRN) Be Better Off With Less Debt?

Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously...
Seeking Alpha • Aug 23

Capstone Green Energy: Explosive Sales Prediction

Methane collection was identified as a global priority by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; this concern and the resulting government actions may drive sales at CGRN. CGRN's competition in this field is limited; they have the best product and sell it at a very competitive price. CGRN sales to collected methane customers are snowballing if this continues; a DCF suggests their shares are undervalued by a factor of 10.
Analysis Article • Aug 21

It's Unlikely That Capstone Green Energy Corporation's (NASDAQ:CGRN) CEO Will See A Huge Pay Rise This Year

In the past three years, the share price of Capstone Green Energy Corporation ( NASDAQ:CGRN ) has struggled to grow and...
Seeking Alpha • Jul 02

Capstone Green Energy: Latest Capital Raise Catches Investors Flat-Footed

Stock has retreated by approximately 65% from multi-year highs set at the beginning of the year. Recent quarterly results have been disappointing. Company is aggressively raising additional capital but neither a major acquisition nor a near-term repayment of the expensive Goldman Sachs notes look like viable options at this point. Management is doing everything to position the company right in the sweet spot of ESG investing including a name change and expanding into hydrogen applications but Capstone will remain dependent on the legacy natural-gas-powered microturbine business for years to come. Investors should remain on the sidelines until the business outlook improves, particularly given the very real threat of further near-term equity raises.
Analysis Article • Apr 17

Capstone Turbine (NASDAQ:CPST) Is Carrying A Fair Bit Of Debt

Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously...
Analysis Article • Mar 13

Imagine Holding Capstone Turbine (NASDAQ:CPST) Shares While The Price Zoomed 466% Higher

For many, the main point of investing in the stock market is to achieve spectacular returns. While not every stock...
Analysis Article • Feb 06

How Should Investors React To Capstone Turbine's (NASDAQ:CPST) CEO Pay?

This article will reflect on the compensation paid to Darren Jamison who has served as CEO of Capstone Turbine...
Analysis Article • Jan 02

Does This Valuation Of Capstone Turbine Corporation (NASDAQ:CPST) Imply Investors Are Overpaying?

Does the January share price for Capstone Turbine Corporation ( NASDAQ:CPST ) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we...

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

OTCPK:CGEH - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
3/31/20281571620221
3/31/20271214891
3/31/20261081231
12/31/2025110-5677N/A
9/30/2025103-2156N/A
6/30/202598-434N/A
3/31/202586-778N/A
12/31/202483-12-4-3N/A
9/30/20247715-18-17N/A
6/30/2024839-23-21N/A
3/31/2024917-32-28N/A
12/31/2023812-30-22N/A
9/30/202387-28-24-14N/A
6/30/202379-26-18-9N/A
3/31/202374-25-16-8N/A
12/31/202270-23-21-13N/A
9/30/202270-22-21-11N/A
6/30/202267-24-32-21N/A
3/31/202264-22-37-27N/A
12/31/202172-18-26-18N/A
9/30/202172-21-22-18N/A
6/30/202170-19-11-7N/A
3/31/202168-21-22N/A
12/31/202061-21-9-7N/A
9/30/202058-18-11-8N/A
6/30/202064-18-20-16N/A
3/31/202069-22-24-20N/A
12/31/201979-19-25-21N/A
9/30/201980-18N/A-17N/A
6/30/201981-17N/A-17N/A
3/31/201983-17N/A-18N/A
12/31/201882-15N/A-12N/A
9/30/201887-12N/A-15N/A
6/30/201885-11N/A-14N/A
3/31/201883-10N/A-9N/A
12/31/201785-12N/A-12N/A
9/30/201782-23N/A-14N/A
6/30/201777-25N/A-17N/A
3/31/201777-25N/A-19N/A
12/31/201673-26N/A-22N/A
9/30/201674-22N/A-14N/A
6/30/201677-24N/A-18N/A
3/31/201685-25N/A-22N/A
12/31/201596-34N/A-22N/A
9/30/2015105-32N/A-27N/A
6/30/2015119-31N/A-21N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: CGEH is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (3.5%).

Earnings vs Market: CGEH is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.

High Growth Earnings: CGEH is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: CGEH's revenue (17% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (11.6% per year).

High Growth Revenue: CGEH's revenue (17% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if CGEH's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time

Discover growth companies

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/05/21 21:26
End of Day Share Price 2026/05/21 00:00
Earnings2025/12/31
Annual Earnings2025/03/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Capstone Energy+, Inc. is covered by 12 analysts. 1 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Shawn SeversonCitizens JMP Securities, LLC
Eric StineCraig-Hallum Capital Group LLC
Amit DayalH.C. Wainwright & Co.