BAE Systems Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of BAES.Y when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

BAES.Y ($114.13) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] ($129.83)

Is BAES.Y undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Future Cash Flow Value

What is the Fair Price of BAES.Y when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

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Below Fair Value: BAES.Y ($114.13) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($129.83)

Significantly Below Fair Value: BAES.Y is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for BAES.Y?

Key metric: As BAES.Y is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for BAES.Y. This is calculated by dividing BAES.Y's market cap by their current earnings.
What is BAES.Y's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	31.5x
Earnings	UK£1.98b
Market Cap	UK£62.31b

BAES.Y key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	2.5x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	20.8x
PEG Ratio	2.8x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does BAES.Y's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for BAES.Y vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	37.1x
HWM Howmet Aerospace	61.1x	14.97%	US$87.8b
GD General Dynamics	23.1x	7.55%	US$95.4b
NOC Northrop Grumman	22.3x	5.19%	US$88.3b
TDG TransDigm Group	41.8x	14.60%	US$78.4b
BAES.Y BAE Systems	31.5x	11.09%	US$62.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: BAES.Y is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (31.5x) compared to the peer average (37.1x).

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio compares a stock's price to its earnings over time. Higher ratios indicate that investors are willing to pay more for the stock.

Fetching historical data

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does BAES.Y's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Aerospace & Defense Industry?

1 Company	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
ETCC Environmental Tectonics	1.6x	n/a	US$20.01m

No more companies available in this PE range

1 Company		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: BAES.Y is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (31.5x) compared to the US Aerospace & Defense industry average (40.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is BAES.Y's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

BAES.Y PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	31.5x
Fair PE Ratio	34x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: BAES.Y is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (31.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (34x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

AnalystPriceTarget

Community Contributor

US$117.58

Fair Value

2.9% undervalued

Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Insufficient data to show price forecast.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2026/01/13 10:27
End of Day Share Price	2026/01/12 00:00
Earnings	2025/06/30
Annual Earnings	2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

Package	Data	Timeframe	Example US Source ^*
Company Financials	10 years	Income statement Cash flow statement Balance sheet	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form 10-Q
Analyst Consensus Estimates	+3 years	Forecast financials Analyst price targets	Analyst Research Reports Blue Matrix
Market Prices	30 years	Stock prices Dividends, Splits and Actions	ICE Market Data SEC Form S-1
Ownership	10 years	Top shareholders Insider trading	SEC Form 4 SEC Form 13D
Management	10 years	Leadership team Board of directors	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form DEF 14A
Key Developments	10 years	Company announcements	SEC Form 8-K

^* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

BAE Systems plc is covered by 35 analysts. 18 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

Analyst	Institution
Joseph Campbell	Barclays
George Mcwhirter	Berenberg
Andrew Gollan	Berenberg