Is Advanced Drainage Systems (NYSE:WMS) A Risky Investment?

Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We note that Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. (NYSE:WMS) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

When Is Debt Dangerous?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.

Check out our latest analysis for Advanced Drainage Systems

What Is Advanced Drainage Systems's Net Debt?

The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Advanced Drainage Systems had US$1.27b in debt in December 2023; about the same as the year before. On the flip side, it has US$560.7m in cash leading to net debt of about US$713.3m.

How Strong Is Advanced Drainage Systems' Balance Sheet?

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Advanced Drainage Systems had liabilities of US$409.1m falling due within a year, and liabilities of US$1.65b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$560.7m as well as receivables valued at US$240.8m due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling US$1.26b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

Of course, Advanced Drainage Systems has a titanic market capitalization of US$12.6b, so these liabilities are probably manageable. Having said that, it's clear that we should continue to monitor its balance sheet, lest it change for the worse.

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).

Advanced Drainage Systems has net debt of just 0.84 times EBITDA, indicating that it is certainly not a reckless borrower. And it boasts interest cover of 8.3 times, which is more than adequate. While Advanced Drainage Systems doesn't seem to have gained much on the EBIT line, at least earnings remain stable for now. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Advanced Drainage Systems can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. During the last three years, Advanced Drainage Systems produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 68% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.

Our View

The good news is that Advanced Drainage Systems's demonstrated ability to convert EBIT to free cash flow delights us like a fluffy puppy does a toddler. And that's just the beginning of the good news since its net debt to EBITDA is also very heartening. Taking all this data into account, it seems to us that Advanced Drainage Systems takes a pretty sensible approach to debt. While that brings some risk, it can also enhance returns for shareholders. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for Advanced Drainage Systems you should be aware of.

If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.