Trinity Industries (NYSE:TRN) shareholders have earned a 14% CAGR over the last three years

By
Simply Wall St
Published
April 13, 2022
NYSE:TRN
Source: Shutterstock

Investors can buy low cost index fund if they want to receive the average market return. But if you invest in individual stocks, some are likely to underperform. That's what has happened with the Trinity Industries, Inc. (NYSE:TRN) share price. It's up 34% over three years, but that is below the market return. In the last year the stock has gained 11%.

Now it's worth having a look at the company's fundamentals too, because that will help us determine if the long term shareholder return has matched the performance of the underlying business.

Check out our latest analysis for Trinity Industries

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During three years of share price growth, Trinity Industries moved from a loss to profitability. That would generally be considered a positive, so we'd expect the share price to be up.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

earnings-per-share-growth
NYSE:TRN Earnings Per Share Growth April 13th 2022

We know that Trinity Industries has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? You could check out this free report showing analyst revenue forecasts.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, Trinity Industries' TSR for the last 3 years was 48%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

It's good to see that Trinity Industries has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 14% in the last twelve months. That's including the dividend. However, the TSR over five years, coming in at 14% per year, is even more impressive. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For example, we've discovered 4 warning signs for Trinity Industries (2 are a bit unpleasant!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

But note: Trinity Industries may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

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