Is It Time To Reassess Tutor Perini After Its 143% Rally in 2025?

• If you're wondering whether Tutor Perini is currently a hidden value gem or if the recent rally has taken it a bit too far, you're not alone. Let's dive in and see what the numbers actually say.
• The stock has taken investors on a wild ride lately, with a year-to-date gain of 143.2% and a massive 638.2% return over three years, although there's been a dip of -8.1% in the past week.
• Much of this surge is tied to heightened optimism around Tutor Perini's involvement in several large infrastructure projects after the passing of significant federal spending bills. Recent headlines have spotlighted the company's role in major civil works, adding momentum and drawing renewed attention from both markets and analysts.
• As it stands, Tutor Perini scores a 6/6 on our undervaluation checks, hinting that it may offer more value than meets the eye. Let's break down how analysts and models approach this, and why there's an even smarter way to get the real picture coming up later in this article.

Tutor Perini delivered 97.7% returns over the last year. See how this stacks up to the rest of the Construction industry.

Approach 1: Tutor Perini Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model estimates what a company is worth today based on its projected future cash flows, which are then discounted back to their present value. This method is particularly useful for businesses like Tutor Perini, which have variable or lumpy cash flows because of project cycles.

For Tutor Perini, the latest twelve months of Free Cash Flow total $821.2 million. Looking ahead, analysts expect cash flows to decrease somewhat, forecasting $500 million in Free Cash Flow by 2026. Projections beyond five years are extrapolated using trends and observable market data, resulting in a forecasted Free Cash Flow of approximately $264.4 million by 2035. All figures are in US dollars.

The DCF analysis uses these forecasts with a two-stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach. After summing and discounting the future cash flows, the model calculates an estimated intrinsic value of $79.70 per share. When compared to the current share price, this suggests the stock is trading at a 26.3% discount to its intrinsic value.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Tutor Perini is undervalued by 26.3%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 894 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Tutor Perini.

Approach 2: Tutor Perini Price vs Sales

For companies like Tutor Perini, which may experience lumpy profits due to project-based revenues but remain a sizable player in their industry, the Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio is a suitable valuation metric. Unlike earnings, which can be volatile from year to year, sales figures provide a more stable and comparable base for valuation, especially in periods where profitability metrics may be temporarily distorted by timing or one-off items.

Growth expectations and underlying business risks play a key role in what constitutes a "normal" or "fair" P/S ratio. Companies with faster sales growth and lower risk are typically granted higher multiples by the market, reflecting greater future potential and reliability. Conversely, elevated risks or slower growth would generally warrant lower multiples, even if sales are robust in the present.

Tutor Perini is currently trading at a P/S ratio of 0.61x. This stands well below both the industry average of 1.12x and the peer average of 1.07x. While such comparisons are helpful, Simply Wall St's proprietary "Fair Ratio" model goes further by incorporating factors like earnings growth, industry outlook, risk profile, profit margins, and overall size. For Tutor Perini, the calculated Fair Ratio is 1.15x, suggesting what a reasonable market multiple should be for the company given its circumstances. Because this Fair Ratio is nearly double the current P/S ratio, the stock appears noticeably undervalued using this lens, and this approach offers a more tailored benchmark than simple industry or peer checks.

Result: UNDERVALUED

PS ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1417 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Tutor Perini Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there's an even better way to understand valuation, so let's introduce you to Narratives. This is a powerful and approachable tool that lets any investor give their view of a company's story and connect it directly to numbers like fair value, revenue, and earnings forecasts.

A Narrative is your personal way to tie together what you believe about a business, such as upcoming catalysts, risks, or industry shifts, with the key financial forecasts that drive its valuation. Instead of just accepting analyst targets or historical averages, Narratives let you apply your unique perspective by adjusting estimates for future sales, margins, or earnings, and immediately see what that means for a company’s fair value.

On Simply Wall St, millions of investors use Narratives on the Community page to compare their take with others. The platform automatically updates these Narratives as fresh news and earnings releases come in, so your view always stays current. By comparing your Fair Value to the latest Price, you can quickly decide if you think Tutor Perini is a buy, hold, or sell right now.

For example, some investors in the community believe Tutor Perini should trade closer to $90.00 per share, based on robust backlog and margin expansion. Others are more cautious and see fair value around $67.00 due to risk factors, which shows how Narratives capture a full spectrum of informed perspectives in real time.

Do you think there's more to the story for Tutor Perini? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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