Triumph Group Valuation

Is TGI undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of TGI when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: TGI ($14.51) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($42.74)

Significantly Below Fair Value: TGI is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for TGI?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

TGI key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.8x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA14.5x
PEG Ration/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does TGI's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for TGI vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average1.9x
KAMN Kaman
1.7x3.6%US$1.3b
CDRE Cadre Holdings
3x10.0%US$1.4b
MRCY Mercury Systems
1.9x2.3%US$1.7b
DCO Ducommun
1x5.4%US$738.6m
TGI Triumph Group
0.8x4.9%US$1.1b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: TGI is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.8x) compared to the peer average (1.9x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does TGI's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Aerospace & Defense Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a14.0%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPS048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a14.0%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: TGI is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.8x) compared to the US Aerospace & Defense industry average (2x).


Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is TGI's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

TGI PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio0.8x
Fair PS Ratio0.9x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: TGI is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.9x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst TGI forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$14.51
US$19.44
+34.0%
18.8%US$27.00US$13.00n/a8
Mar ’25US$14.20
US$19.64
+38.3%
19.7%US$27.00US$13.00n/a7
Feb ’25US$16.34
US$19.93
+22.0%
19.1%US$27.00US$13.00n/a7
Jan ’25US$16.58
US$14.42
-13.0%
17.7%US$18.50US$11.00n/a6
Dec ’24US$11.44
US$12.88
+12.5%
17.1%US$17.00US$9.00n/a8
Nov ’24US$7.54
US$12.00
+59.2%
21.2%US$17.00US$8.00n/a8
Oct ’24US$7.66
US$12.13
+58.3%
20.8%US$17.00US$8.00n/a8
Sep ’24US$9.50
US$12.13
+27.6%
20.8%US$17.00US$8.00n/a8
Aug ’24US$12.40
US$13.78
+11.1%
18.4%US$19.00US$11.00n/a9
Jul ’24US$12.37
US$13.67
+10.5%
15.4%US$17.00US$11.00n/a9
Jun ’24US$11.33
US$13.67
+20.6%
15.4%US$17.00US$11.00n/a9
May ’24US$10.83
US$13.22
+22.1%
18.8%US$17.00US$10.00n/a9
Apr ’24US$11.59
US$13.22
+14.1%
18.8%US$17.00US$10.00n/a9
Mar ’24US$12.45
US$13.22
+6.2%
18.8%US$17.00US$10.00US$14.209
Feb ’24US$12.24
US$13.33
+8.9%
23.2%US$19.00US$9.00US$16.349
Jan ’24US$10.52
US$15.11
+43.6%
21.3%US$20.00US$9.00US$16.589
Dec ’23US$11.50
US$15.22
+32.4%
21.2%US$20.00US$9.00US$11.449
Nov ’23US$9.65
US$15.67
+62.3%
22.7%US$20.00US$9.00US$7.549
Oct ’23US$8.59
US$17.38
+102.3%
15.7%US$20.00US$13.00US$7.668
Sep ’23US$11.97
US$17.38
+45.2%
15.7%US$20.00US$13.00US$9.508
Aug ’23US$16.45
US$19.63
+19.3%
27.9%US$30.00US$13.00US$12.408
Jul ’23US$13.38
US$21.38
+59.8%
23.3%US$30.00US$13.00US$12.378
Jun ’23US$15.05
US$22.44
+49.1%
16.7%US$30.00US$18.00US$11.339
May ’23US$22.54
US$25.92
+15.0%
19.4%US$36.00US$20.00US$10.839
Apr ’23US$25.76
US$25.92
+0.6%
19.4%US$36.00US$20.00US$11.599
Mar ’23US$23.73
US$25.03
+5.5%
14.8%US$30.00US$20.00US$12.459

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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