A Look at Mueller Water Products’s Valuation Following Strong Earnings Growth and Upbeat 2026 Outlook

Mueller Water Products (NYSE:MWA) has grabbed investor attention after posting stronger sales and net income for both the recent quarter and the full year, along with a 2026 guidance that points to continued sales growth.

See our latest analysis for Mueller Water Products.

While Mueller Water Products’ latest quarterly results and upbeat 2026 outlook have made headlines, the company’s share price has lost some steam recently, falling 9.25% over the last month even as it holds on to a 3.76% gain so far this year. Despite these short-term moves, its three-year total shareholder return of 113% shows that long-term investors have been well rewarded. Momentum could rebuild as leadership transitions and buybacks signal confidence from the C-suite.

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Given the company’s robust results, estimated upside to analyst targets, and leadership changes in motion, investors are left wondering if recent share price weakness is a value opportunity or if future growth is already reflected in the stock.

Most Popular Narrative: 16% Undervalued

The most widely followed narrative places Mueller Water Products' fair value at $27.67, notably above its recent close of $23.16. Analysts’ consensus hints at a sizable gap between the company’s share price and projected performance, raising investors’ interest in the story behind these numbers.

Anticipated acceleration in demand for water infrastructure replacement, as the pressing need to repair and replace aging U.S. municipal water systems is expected to drive sustained order growth for repair products and valves. This, in turn, may support long-term revenue expansion and backlog stability.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious about which key projections justify this upside? One central forecast involves a major leap in future earnings power and profitability, not just incremental gains. Want to know which bold assumptions anchor this valuation? Find out which financial targets set the stage for a potential rerating.

Result: Fair Value of $27.67 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent delays in government infrastructure funding or a downturn in residential construction could challenge these optimistic forecasts and reduce Mueller Water Products’ growth projections.

Find out about the key risks to this Mueller Water Products narrative.

Build Your Own Mueller Water Products Narrative

If you think the story doesn’t quite fit your view or you’d like to see how the numbers stack up in your own way, you can quickly build your own narrative in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Mueller Water Products research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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