A Fresh Look at Moog (MOG.A) Valuation Following Strong Results and 2026 Outlook

Moog (NYSE:MOG.A) just posted its fourth quarter and full-year results, showing meaningful growth in both sales and net income compared to last year. The company also outlined its expectations for even stronger performance in fiscal 2026, with higher projected net sales and earnings per share.

See our latest analysis for Moog.

Moog’s strong results and positive 2026 outlook have supported sustained momentum in the shares, which have climbed 12% over the past month and are currently near all-time highs at $229.68. With a one-year total shareholder return of 4.3% and 166% over three years, investors are noting signals of long-term value as well as near-term optimism.

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With shares near all-time highs and robust earnings growth on the horizon, investors are left to wonder if Moog’s recent rally leaves more room to run or if the market has already priced in the company’s future gains.

Most Popular Narrative: Fairly Valued

Moog's fair value is estimated at $228.75 per share, nearly identical to its latest close of $229.68. This points to balanced pricing based on analysts’ core assumptions. This narrative highlights both Moog’s potential growth and the competitive landscape as major valuation drivers.

Moog is positioned to benefit from a sustained increase in global defense spending, with significant order backlog and direct exposure to U.S., NATO, and Indo-Pacific modernization programs, which is likely to drive multi-year revenue growth and increased earnings stability.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know the bold bets behind this price? Analysts are banking on stacked earnings, widening margins, and shrinking share counts to fuel this valuation. What key assumptions could tip the balance? Discover the surprising foundation behind Moog’s fair value.

Result: Fair Value of $228.75 (ABOUT RIGHT)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent tariff pressures and uncertainty in government defense budgets could quickly shift sentiment and challenge Moog’s current growth narrative.

Find out about the key risks to this Moog narrative.

Another View: Discounted Cash Flow Tells a Different Story

While analysts put Moog’s fair value near its current share price, our SWS DCF model presents a much more optimistic picture. It estimates Moog is trading at about 38% below its true intrinsic value. Could the market be overlooking upside, or is the DCF too optimistic?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Moog for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 914 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own Moog Narrative

If our analysis does not quite fit your perspective, or you are eager to dig into the numbers yourself, you can craft your own take in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Moog research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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