Some Confidence Is Lacking In Illinois Tool Works Inc.'s (NYSE:ITW) P/E

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 25.3x Illinois Tool Works Inc. (NYSE:ITW) may be sending bearish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in the United States have P/E ratios under 18x and even P/E's lower than 10x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the elevated P/E.

Illinois Tool Works certainly has been doing a good job lately as its earnings growth has been positive while most other companies have been seeing their earnings go backwards. It seems that many are expecting the company to continue defying the broader market adversity, which has increased investors’ willingness to pay up for the stock. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

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Does Growth Match The High P/E?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should outperform the market for P/E ratios like Illinois Tool Works' to be considered reasonable.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered virtually the same number to the company's bottom line as the year before. Fortunately, a few good years before that means that it was still able to grow EPS by 22% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, shareholders probably wouldn't have been overly satisfied with the unstable medium-term growth rates.

Looking ahead now, EPS is anticipated to climb by 5.9% per annum during the coming three years according to the analysts following the company. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to expand by 10% per annum, which is noticeably more attractive.

With this information, we find it concerning that Illinois Tool Works is trading at a P/E higher than the market. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a good chance these shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.

What We Can Learn From Illinois Tool Works' P/E?

While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.

We've established that Illinois Tool Works currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its forecast growth is lower than the wider market. When we see a weak earnings outlook with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless these conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Illinois Tool Works you should know about.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with a strong growth track record, trading on a low P/E.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.