Greenbrier Companies (GBX): Valuation in Focus After Mixed Quarterly and Full-Year Earnings Results

Greenbrier Companies (GBX) just released its fourth quarter and full-year earnings results, showing a notable dip in quarterly revenue and net income. However, full-year net income actually rose from the prior year. Investors are watching closely after these figures.

See our latest analysis for Greenbrier Companies.

Greenbrier’s stock has been volatile in 2025, reflecting a mix of cautious optimism and renewed uncertainty after its latest earnings and an ongoing share buyback program. The share price sits at $42.65, with a 1-year total shareholder return of -32.78%. This puts long-term gains of 61.85% over five years into sharper perspective, as market momentum has clearly faded this year.

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This raises a key question for investors: is Greenbrier trading at a discount despite its challenging quarter, or is the current stock price already reflecting the company’s future prospects and growth potential?

Most Popular Narrative: 20.3% Undervalued

Greenbrier’s latest narrative sets its fair value at $53.50, notably above the last traded price of $42.65. The gap signals that analysts see room for recovery if company assumptions hold, but there are real hurdles ahead.

"Strength in the leasing market, with recurring revenue growing by 39% over the last two years, along with strong lease renewal rates and limited equipment supply, is likely to contribute to stable and possibly increasing revenue."

Read the complete narrative.

What is behind this optimism? The analyst narrative points to a hidden surge in recurring income and bets on a tight supply market. Want to see the full set of forward-looking financial assumptions that support this bullish price target? The real driver of the narrative may not be what most investors expect.

Result: Fair Value of $53.50 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, fluctuating trade policies and slowing railcar orders could quickly undermine Greenbrier’s recovery story. These factors may challenge even the most optimistic forecasts.

Find out about the key risks to this Greenbrier Companies narrative.

Build Your Own Greenbrier Companies Narrative

If you see the numbers differently or want to dig into Greenbrier’s outlook on your own terms, you can craft your own story in just a few minutes. Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Greenbrier Companies research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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