We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Ferguson Valuation

Is FERG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for FERG?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

FERG key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.1x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA10.6x
PEG Ratio3.7x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does FERG's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for FERG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average16.4x
FAST Fastenal
27.6x7.7%US$31.3b
GWW W.W. Grainger
19.5x5.1%US$32.6b
URI United Rentals
10.5x6.9%US$22.9b
AER AerCap Holdings
7.8x0.4%US$13.3b
FERG Ferguson
14.1x3.9%US$29.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: FERG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.1x) compared to the peer average (16.4x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does FERG's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Trade Distributors Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a5.6%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a5.6%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: FERG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.1x) compared to the US Trade Distributors industry average (12.1x)


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is FERG's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

FERG PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio14.1x
Fair PE Ratio19.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: FERG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.6x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of FERG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: FERG ($144.91) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($142.17)

Significantly Below Fair Value: FERG is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst FERG forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$145.59
US$156.64
+7.6%
14.5%US$194.00US$105.00n/a11
May ’24US$142.03
US$150.02
+5.6%
14.2%US$194.00US$105.00n/a10
Apr ’24US$133.75
US$150.02
+12.2%
14.2%US$194.00US$105.00n/a10
Mar ’24US$144.65
US$149.28
+3.2%
15.0%US$191.00US$107.00n/a10
Feb ’24US$144.41
US$145.33
+0.6%
15.6%US$191.00US$107.00n/a9
Jan ’24US$126.97
US$145.03
+14.2%
15.9%US$191.00US$106.00n/a9
Dec ’23US$118.31
US$138.70
+17.2%
15.8%US$191.00US$105.00n/a9
Nov ’23US$110.10
US$138.03
+25.4%
16.1%US$191.00US$111.30n/a9
Oct ’23US$102.93
US$139.31
+35.3%
15.6%US$191.00US$112.00n/a9
Sep ’23US$115.50
US$143.31
+24.1%
19.2%US$216.00US$112.80n/a9
Aug ’23US$125.13
US$143.31
+14.5%
19.2%US$216.00US$112.80n/a9
Jul ’23US$109.86
US$151.75
+38.1%
19.6%US$216.00US$118.00n/a8
Jun ’23US$118.26
US$177.00
+49.7%
18.3%US$213.00US$127.00US$145.597
May ’23US$124.71
US$184.00
+47.5%
16.2%US$213.00US$127.00US$142.036
Apr ’23US$133.82
US$185.00
+38.2%
16.9%US$213.00US$127.00US$133.755
Mar ’23US$150.88
US$189.80
+25.8%
17.4%US$217.00US$125.00US$144.655
Feb ’23US$159.25
US$189.80
+19.2%
17.4%US$217.00US$125.00US$144.415
Jan ’23US$179.39
US$178.00
-0.8%
18.5%US$205.00US$114.00US$126.975
Dec ’22US$153.43
US$161.50
+5.3%
20.3%US$197.00US$109.00US$118.314
Nov ’22US$153.14
US$161.50
+5.5%
20.3%US$197.00US$109.00US$110.104
Oct ’22US$138.81
US$157.00
+13.1%
19.5%US$197.00US$109.00US$102.935
Sep ’22US$145.83
US$145.25
-0.4%
16.5%US$171.00US$109.00US$115.504
Aug ’22US$140.05
US$145.25
+3.7%
16.5%US$171.00US$109.00US$125.134
Jul ’22US$139.93
US$142.25
+1.7%
15.7%US$171.00US$109.00US$109.864
Jun ’22US$136.56
US$142.25
+4.2%
15.7%US$171.00US$109.00US$118.264

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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